Page 1 of 2 China can't stop India's missile system
By Peter J Brown
India considers its emerging anti-missile system an absolute necessity. As each
day passes, the signs of instability in Pakistan become more troubling and the
drum beat grows louder from Pakistan's Swat Valley, where a militant culture is
taking root which is neither tolerant nor passive in nature.
Beijing cannot be happy about India's anti-missile plans and what this might
mean for China's long-term strategic interests in the region. More than
anything else, it is the uncertainty of the outcome that is causing it such
discomfort. The US seems determined to surround China with US-built
anti-missile systems. Using North Korea as a valid excuse at first, the US
anti-missile
footprint could soon extend from Japan - including Japanese cruisers stationed
offshore - and South Korea to Taiwan and India.
Sure, China's trade with India is growing quickly, but that may prove to be
inconsequential. According to Dr Jing-dong Yuan, director of the East Asia
Non-proliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation
Studies, besides substantial progress in Sino-Indian relations and defense
cooperation, trade between the two countries grew to more than US$38 billion in
2007, and the target for 2010 is $60 billion.
China is keenly aware that India's ties to the US and Japan have grown even
stronger at the same time.
Writing in World Politics Review in late November in the article "Chinese
Perspectives on a Rising India", Yuan said, "Beijing is also wary of New
Delhi's eastward strategy of developing greater economic and military ties with
Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries. Indeed, the
increasingly warm ties between New Delhi and Tokyo have been carefully watched
by strategic analysts in Beijing."
Having transformed Seoul and Tokyo into perhaps the best-defended capitals in
Asia as far as anti-missile capabilities are concerned, the US is now a
persistent player behind the scenes in New Delhi. (See
India and the US talk missile defense, Asia Times Online, Jan 14.)
Among other things, just days ago, Foreign Policy magazine designated the
US-India joint anti-missile program as number four on its list of the "The Top
10 Stories You Missed in 2008." The magazine's team wrote:
[A]
US-facilitated missile shield in India could become a flash point for
great-power struggles for decades to come. The plans are likely to add to fears
in Beijing that the United States is attempting to temper China's growing
influence in Asia. [US Secretary of Defense Robert M] Gates's trip to New Delhi
was part of a tour of three of the region's democracies - India, Australia, and
Indonesia - which could be used to counter China's regional ambitions if
relations with the United States turn frosty. Even more troubling, an Indian
missile shield risks triggering a crisis in the nuclear rivalry between India
and Pakistan.
A year ago, V K Saraswat, a senior India Defense
Research and Development Organization (DRDO) official, told the Associated
Press that India was on track to start comprehensive tests of its own missile
defense system in 2009 using radar technology for tracking and fire control
which the DRDO developed jointly with Israel and France. The DRDO did not
respond to questions from Asia Times Online.
According to Subrata Ghoshroy, a research associate at the Science, Technology
and Global Security Working Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
who heads the Promoting Nuclear Stability in South Asia Project, India has
already demonstrated its ability to track missiles and launch an interceptor
fairly accurately, and also the capability to perform onboard data processing
to handle ground-based radar updates until an autonomous seeker can take over
for the homing phase.
"India has conducted two intercept tests with an interceptor that is basically
a Prithvi missile, their workhorse. I do not know how scripted the tests were.
The target surely was not maneuvering," said Ghoshroy.
According to Eric Hagt, China program director at the World Security Institute
in Washington DC, India's successful test in a two-tiered system - an
exo-atmospheric and the more difficult endo-atmospheric anti-ballistic missile
defense systems - "does not necessarily make these systems operational as more
tests under more stringent conditions are needed for that, but these successful
tests still send a strong message that India is dedicated to acquiring a
multi-tiered system, and is making substantive progress toward that goal".
In addition, two new anti-ballistic missiles that can intercept
intermediate-range ballistic missiles and inter-continental ballistic missiles
(ICBM) are in development, according to Hagt.
"These missiles, the AD-1 and AD-2, are being developed to intercept ballistic
missiles with ranges of 5,000 kilometers or more. Test trials of these systems
are expected some time in the next two years," he said, adding that India's
significant work on its support infrastructure for operational missile defense
systems - on the ground, in the air and in space - is attracting very little
attention as this unfolds.
When China conducted its controversial anti-satellite (ASAT) test in early
2007, India lit up immediately. Dr Sharad Joshi at the Monterey Institute
Center for Non-proliferation Studies wrote at length about India's reaction to
this ASAT test in his March 2007 special report for the journal WMD Insights.
He mentioned Jasjit Singh's role in shaping the debate. A well-known Indian
military expert, Singh called attention to the failure of India's military to
become engaged in India's space program.
"He expressed concern that China's anti-satellite expertise and its increasing
focus on anti-missile defense capabilities could significantly degrade India's
strategic nuclear deterrent," wrote Joshi. "He also highlighted the potential
threat posed by China's growing cooperation with Pakistan in developing
multi-mission satellites, which will increase Pakistan's surveillance
capabilities, even as China's anti-satellite weapon capability makes India's
emerging space-based surveillance system more vulnerable.
"The analyst also stressed that while China's military related space
capabilities are being expanded as a response to US dominance in space,
Beijing's growing prowess in this environment could easily be used against
India in a future confrontation."
Mindful of China's space might or not, not everyone in India is so willing to
endorse a combining of India's military and civilian space teams.
"I do not believe that the India Space Research Organization's (ISRO) success
will have any direct impact on the missile defense program. ISRO seems to be
focused on demonstrating advances in space technology and missions in direct
competition with China and also commercialization through Antrix," said
Ghoshroy. "The ISRO brass is still very much civilian and would like to
maintain its distance from the military."
At the same time, the ISRO's proud space record has instilled a definite sense
of confidence in India's high-tech defense sector.
"The US is hoping to sell India the Patriot Advanced Capability(PAC)-3 missile
defense system, [but] the Indians are more interested in building their own
systems than buying some from the US," said Victoria Samson, senior analyst at
the Washington DC-based Center for Defense Information. "They have had some
tests of an air defense system that they built themselves, but this used
"proximity fragmentation" instead of a hit-to-kill interceptor. They have
approached the US about collaborating to develop a hit-to-kill capability."
Earlier this month, reports about any US-Indian anti-missile cooperation were
quickly dismissed by the US Department of Defense.
"China obviously is following this with great interest, since a close US-Indian
cooperation in missile defenses not only is an indication of their shared
strategic interests, but also has implications for China since they can defend
against both Pakistani and Chinese missiles," said Yuan. "Beijing now is more
confident that India is not very likely to cede its autonomy in foreign policy
and be - and be seen as - part of a US-orchestrated scheme against China. China
may not like what it sees, but can live with them."
India has ordered Akash surface-to-air missiles from Bharat Electronics Ltd,
which Nathan Hughes, a military analyst at the Texas-based geopolitical
intelligence company Stratfor, labeled "an important act of financial
investment, even if the [Indian] military reportedly continues to have
reservations about its capability".
"The limitation for India has not been the lack of a desire to field the
systems, but the technical limitation that they are not ready. Even though it
is buying the Akash, it is not at all clear that the missile has meaningful
operational capability against Pakistani missiles and Pakistani cruise missiles
which present a very different targeting challenge," said Hughes.
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