The way forward for US-Sino ties
By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - In his inaugural speech, United States President Barack
Obama vowed to seek greater cooperation among nations to confront global
challenges such as climate change, poverty, terrorism and nuclear
proliferation. Crucially important for the success of this welcome call for a
return to multilateralism will be how his administration manages US-China
relations.
Fortunately, in this regard the Obama administration inherits sound US-China
ties, mainly due to the recent efforts of the Chinese leadership and the George
W Bush administration. Unlike the rather tense beginnings of some previous
administrations, where issues like Taiwan, human rights and trade cast a shadow
over bilateral relations, Beijing and Washington
can start by consolidating a relationship which has matured well over the past
three decades.
Today the United States and China are partners in many areas, ranging from
energy and the environment to the "war on terror" and combating nuclear
proliferation. Over the past few years, a series of strategic dialogues on
security and economic issues has been established which ensures regular
consultations between US and Chinese leaders on bilateral, regional and global
issues which affect their interests.
But Sino-US relations also face some serious obstacles, and how effectively
these are managed during the Obama administration will have far-reaching global
and regional ramifications.
Beijing and Washington share similar security goals, such as preventing the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and maintaining regional stability
in Asia, but they often pursue goals with different strategies and approaches.
Both will continue to work together on the North Korean and Iranian nuclear
issues, and increasingly may agree on the role of diplomacy versus coercion,
but time lines will likely differ. China is expected to counsel patience while
the United States will probably expect faster results.
During the campaigns, both Obama and his presidential rival Hillary Clinton,
now secretary of state, emphasized the importance of constructive US-China
relations. Both spoke of the need to draw China further into the international
fold and the Obama administration can be expected to continue in that vein.
The expansion and modernization of China's military - as illustrated by the
recent Chinese naval excursion to the Gulf of Aden and its much-publicized
aspirations for an aircraft carrier - will be a major factor in shaping US
policy towards China. Washington will continue to strengthen and expand its
alliances in Asia and maintain a policy of hedging against China.
Beijing will be wary of these efforts, and will watch closely US attempts to
forge closer military ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia and India. To
counterbalance this and enhance its regional influence, China will continue to
promote regional institutions such as the East Asian Summit, the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+3 arrangements, and the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization.
Growing economic interdependence between the US and China over the past three
decades has brought the two countries closer, but also created friction and
disputes. Bilateral trade has grown from $2.5 billion in 1979 to over $400
billion in 2008, and as of November 2008, Chinese investors were the leading
overseas holders of US Treasury bonds, with $682 billion invested.
But this is an area that, if mismanaged, could create serious problems. During
the presidential campaigns, both Obama and Clinton highlighted the need to hold
China accountable for currency manipulation, labor standards, intellectual
property protection and market access.
While the Bush administration resisted congressional pressure and threats of
sanctions, opting instead for high-level dialogue, the Obama administration
could face mounting demands from Congress to exert pressure on China. This
could become especially acute, given the dire economic situation in the US,
highlighted by its record unemployment figures.
The question is whether punishing China over its trade deficit and currency
manipulation will actually restore these American jobs. China is already
experiencing a noticeable economic slowdown, with exports showing consecutive
drops in the last quarter, falls in the stock and property markets, and massive
layoffs in coastal factories. The economic downturn has already affected
China’s imports, which have fallen much faster and deeper than exports in the
past few months.
One retaliation from Beijing to any strong-armed US economic measures could be
restrictions on imports of US goods and services - the fastest growth area in
US-China trade in the past few years. Such a scenario would benefit neither.
Managing cross-Taiwan Strait relations will be another sensitive area. While
ties between the mainland and Taiwan have improved noticeably since the
Kuomintang (KMT) party's return to power and the Ma Ying-jeon administration’s
more pragmatic approach to cross-strait affairs, disputes continue between
Beijing and Washington over the latter's arms sales to Taiwan.
The Bush administration’s announcement in October 2008 that it had agreed a
$6.5 billion arms package for Taiwan, which included the PAC-3 missile defense
system, 30 Apache attack helicopters and 330 Patriot missiles, triggered a
strong response from China. In retaliation, Beijing canceled bilateral
consultations on arms control and high-level military exchange visits.
Both Obama and Clinton also highlighted human-rights abuse during the campaign,
in particular by what they considered to be repressive regimes. In his
inaugural speech, Obama reiterated the US's objection to regimes which "cling
to power through corruption and deceit". Washington will likely call on Beijing
not only to make improvements in its own human-rights records, but also to join
international efforts to stop genocide and stop its support of questionable
regimes. This will clash with China’s principles of non-interference in other
countries, and its own, domestic affairs.
As major consumers of energy and emitters of carbon dioxide, energy security
and climate change are important for both nations. The Obama administration has
set goals in reducing fossil-fuel dependence and greenhouse emissions and for
these it can and must find a partner in China. This "green partnership", which
could entail US technology transfers and other technical assistance, could
potentially hold long-term benefits for global energy and the environment. As a
start, the Obama administration could cooperate with China in implementing the
bilateral Ten Year Energy and Environment Cooperation agreement signed last
June.
The Obama administration faces daunting domestic and international challenges
as it seeks to restore confidence at home and trust abroad, and this new era
calls for better leadership and a better use of "smart" power. China could be a
partner in these endeavors, but only if Washington recognizes and nurtures the
importance of Sino-US relations based on mutual sensitivity to and respect for
each other’s core national interests. "Yes we can" must be the premise that
guides the future of what could be the most important bilateral relationship of
the 21st century.
Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program
at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies, and an associate
professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies.
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