HONG KONG - The Year of the Rat has ended in a global economic meltdown and a
crisis of confidence unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Can the ox
- the strong, hard-working symbol for next year, which begins on January 26 on
the Chinese lunar calendar - carry us forward to better times?
While feng shui experts, like other prognosticators, are inclined to
cover their backsides with hedges and qualifications, on the whole the Year of
the Ox holds great promise. After all, can things get much worse?
Many financial experts say they not only can but certainly will, but the ox
offers hope that these dour analysts are victims of their own pessimism.
True, Lehman Brothers is no more and, without a US$85 billion
bailout by the US government, American International Group (AIG), one of the
world’s largest insurers, would also have gone belly up. Similar bailouts saved
(barely) mortgage-lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Now Bank of America, the largest bank in the US, will receive a $20 billion
government injection to enable it to cover losses incurred last year when it
bought out foundering investment broker Merrill Lynch. And Citigroup, after
reporting a $18.7 billion loss for the year, has announced that it will ditch
its supermarket banking model and split in two - parking its good assets in one
of its new divisions and its bad ones in the other.
Meanwhile, banks in Europe are also reeling, and heretofore impervious China is
feeling the economic pinch, with factory shut-downs all over the prosperous
Pearl River Delta resulting in massive layoffs of migrant workers. In Hong
Kong, chief executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has shelved all discussion of the
contentious issue of democratic reform to ensure social stability as the
economic crisis starts to bite.
So it’s easy to despair - especially when considering that the previous two ox
years (1997 and 1985) were periods of economic decline for many Asian
economies. That said, however, despair is not a quality usually associated with
this year’s bovine mascot. The ox, one of 12 animal signs in the Chinese
zodiac, represents stability and perseverance - precisely the characteristics
that need to be invoked in the wake of the turbulence and chaos unleashed on
the world in the Year of the Rat.
People born in ox years tend to be tolerant, strong-willed, fearless and
resolved. Like their quadruped brethren, they toil long and hard without
complaint and, while results may be slow in coming, they are clear and tangible
in the end.
In perhaps the most uplifting sign of better things to come, US President
Barack Obama, who was sworn in this week after stirring not just Americans but
people around the world with his eloquent rhetoric of hope and change, was born
in an ox year, 1961. Many a fortune-teller senses something beyond coincidence
in this and expects Obama to do great things as the 44th president of the
United States. They also point out that in Chinese, the number four sounds like
death and that the Obama presidency is bringing us a double dose of it.
Whatever happens, look for the ox-in-chief to shake the world this year.
This also could be a year in which world leaders finally do something
significant about climate change. Not only has Obama, unlike his predecessor,
George W Bush, given the issue high priority, but the astrological signs are
also favorable.
Five basic elements - metal, wood, water, fire and earth - rotate through the
Chinese zodiac, creating a 60-year cycle. In the passing Year of the Rat, earth
sat on top of water, a sign of instability, but the coming year will see earth
sit on top of earth as this will be an earth year of an earth Ox.
As the earth year makes the earth ox stronger, this is should be an auspicious
year. The harmonious combination, of course, bodes well for Mother Earth
herself.
Picture it this way: oxen grazing tranquilly in a pristine field. Doesn't that
sound like just the sort of year our badly bruised planet needs?
Sorry, however. It can’t be that way for everyone. That’s not the way the
Chinese zodiac works - someone’s got to suffer.
All industries associated with water - for example, shipping, transportation,
communication and soft-drink manufactures - should prepare for rough times.
Those associated with metal - such as engineering, banking and computers - may
also find it tough because of this year’s absence of fire, the element that
heats and shapes metal.
Fire also fuels the financial markets, stimulating investment. But, again, the
ox and earth are symbols of strength and stability. So, while the stock market
is likely to continue to cool as investors play it safe in uncertain times, in
the end this should create a more stable market. While that’s not great news,
it could be a lot worse.
Meanwhile, the earth-on-earth motif bodes well for property agents and the
mining, construction and hotel industries. Insurance agents may also prosper.
The double-earth theme, however, also signifies competition, so there will be
winners and losers, maybe more of the latter than the former. It will be
survival of the fittest.
The clear winners in the Year of the Ox should be wood-related industries - for
example, furniture, fashion and textiles. But wood also favors environmental
protection - further support for a real effort to reverse climate change.
Overall, then, it’s going to be a year of taking stock and rebuilding after the
devastation brought on by the rat. No soothsayer worth his salt would promise a
pot of gold in the year ahead, but things should get noticeably better under
the hard-working, if plodding, influence of the ox.
The continuing plight of the victims of the magnitude-8 earthquake that in May
struck the Chinese province of Sichuan - killing nearly 70,000 people, injuring
almost 400,000 and leaving at least 5 million homeless - is a good case in
point. In Sichuan, the rebuilding effort continues, albeit slowly, one step at
a time. That, as much as ox and earth, is an apt symbol for the year to come.
The world’s financial markets could take a cue from Sichuan, where horrible
destruction has been followed by hope and renewal. The pace of Sichuan’s
rebirth is slow but steady. It’s like watching oxen at work.
Kent Ewing is a Hong Kong-based teacher and writer. He can be reached at
kewing@hkis.edu.hk.
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