China cuts off foes to spite its face
By Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - It could be a risky year for China's leadership, as the global
financial crisis, a series of politically sensitive anniversaries and growing
dissent raise fears of destabilization. The government has already acted
swiftly in 2009 with a series of crackdowns designed to nip the threats in the
bud.
This year's troublesome anniversaries will be high on Beijing's agenda. On
March 10 there is the 50th anniversary of the Tibet uprising, on April 25th the
10th anniversary of the Falungong protests and May 4 is the 90th anniversary of
the pro-democracy student movement that started the cultural rebirth of China.
The 20th anniversary of the crackdown on the Tiananmen movement is June 4, and
the 60th anniversary of the foundation of
the People's Republic is on October 1. Each of the events could easily be
marked by anti-government protests.
The domestic and international economic situation is another factor. It has put
many jobs at risk, and a real or feared rise in unemployment could provide
aspiring revolutionaries with motives for stirring unrest. This could make the
overall situation extremely unstable.
For this reason, the government has been swift to intervene. According to
several human-rights organizations, over 100 dissenters are currently under
surveillance for signing "Charter 08", a high-profile signature campaign
calling for more freedoms and political reform. (See
China kills chickens to frighten monkeys, Asia Times Online, December
20, 2008.)
Dissident Wang Rongqing, who persisted in attempts to organize of a new
political party, the Democratic Party, despite it being forbidden, was on
January 7 sentenced to six years in prison. This could be seen as a warning to
anyone hoping to found organizations which defy the monopoly of the Chinese
Communist Party.
One of the most influential blogs in China, Bullog.cn, which hosted the
writings of many intellectuals and some of the signatories of Charter 08, has
been shut down. No official reason was given, but one can guess that the
government wants to limit the space of incendiary arguments at this particular
moment.
In a further Internet crackdown the government also launched a campaign to
control popular online portals and major search engines such as Google and MSN
purportedly to check against vulgar or pornographic content.
For years, "instant messenger" programs such as those available through MSN
have been efficient and anonymous instruments for passing subversive messages.
The government may want to curb them in these delicate times as they could be
used to organize protests and demonstrations.
Then there are the thousands of people trying to file petitions and
denunciations which are regularly withheld and blocked by the police and the
authorities.
China appears Janus-faced, with the government on the one hand promising
democratization but on the other arresting and cruelly punishing anyone wanting
to take advantage of this. It may appear heavy-handed, but there is method in
the madness.
The existence of Bullog.cn, the widespread use of Internet messengers and the
activity of dissident intellectuals reveals a complex and fragile reality in
China. Here, differing opinions have grown and are becoming more tolerated.
However, at this sensitive time the government fears any dangerous spiral of
domestic and international events that could shake the country.
The terrorist attack in November, 2008, by Pakistan-linked terrorists in the
Indian city of Mumbai set off alarm bells in Beijing.
"If that attack, even on a lower scale, had taken place in China, for example
in Shanghai, where for instance 10 terrorists had fired at a crowd in Pudong,
resulting in 10 casualties, the world's media would have cried that China was
falling apart, that the country was collapsing, that the government was about
to finish. These comments could have started internal reactions that could have
triggered a potentially destabilizing inner-party clash," said a frustrated
Chinese official.
"Conversely, in India there was an unprecedented attack," the official said,
"with hundreds of terrorists, 200 fatalities, the complicity of foreign
intelligence agencies, but no one doubts the solidity of the country or the
government in New Delhi. This objectively helps India to overcome this
dangerous moment. Why does India get this preferential treatment from the
international press and China doesn't?"
"Are we so sure that China would be really destabilized by an attack greater
than that of Mumbai? The Mao [Zedong] regime survived the tragedy of 30 million
starved to death during the Great Leap Forward at the end of the 1950s, and
immediately after, in 1962, it won a brief but violent war against India.
Besides, the Chinese government now, according to several opinions polls,
enjoys great popular support, perhaps unprecedented in the history of China."
The Chinese fear then is not the real danger of social destabilization as much
as a "loss of face" for its leadership in the foreign press. This "loss of
face" could be dangerous in the complex and dark party politics of Beijing.
The leaders fear the foreign media because China is unarmed - its media, not
free and on a short party leash, do not have the firepower or the credibility
to counter the accusations of the foreign outlets. Paradoxically, the party, to
defend itself, needs a free Chinese media that at times can criticize, but at
other times it could voice the leaders' opinions.
However, no such media freedoms are in sight, leaving only the old option:
arrests, and the closing of blogs until similar ones appear and multiply.
Intellectuals will escape control and sooner or later someone in China will
decide to break the Gordian knot that could strangle China and its leadership.
Francesco Sisci is Asia Editor, La Stampa.
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