Page 2 of 2 Sky's the limit for space tourism in China
By Peter J Brown
China," said Anderson. "At the same time, things could change in a hurry if
China suddenly decides as a matter of national policy to foster and support
private sector space ventures."
Virgin Galactic (VG) is probably the best-known player in the emerging space
tourism industry. VG has recently signed a multi-year lease involving
facilities at Spaceport America, and it has been in talks both with Spaceport
Sweden and developers of other spaceport sites including one in the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), for example.
"Book your place in space now and join around 250 (VG) astronauts who will
venture into space," proclaims the VG
website. "Tickets cost $200,000 and deposits start from $20,000 ... "
The VG home page lists multiple language options at the bottom of the page,
However, there is no button for text in Chinese. And its list of accredited
space agents around the world does not include any contacts in China.
"There are a number of countries on the US defense trade embargo list and we
need to be careful about accepting nationals of these countries to fly with
[VG]. China is one of the countries who are currently on this list and
therefore we have no Chinese customers or Accredited Space Agents because of
this," said VG spokeswoman Susan Newsam. "Work within China or contracts to
Chinese companies would be very difficult at this point."
Derek Webber, Washington DC-based director of Spaceport Associates, is watching
how China accommodates this new phenomenon in general.
"The rapid pace of developments within China must be producing tensions between
its communist leadership, its new wealthy sub-sets of citizens, and the still
largely impoverished regions of the country. Because of its necessary high
prices, space tourism might be seen as a show of conspicuous wealth which might
not be welcome at this stage of the country's development," said Webber.
"In any event, if space tourism is to take place from China, then there will
need to be the development of the associated regulatory and insurance regimes
to make it possible. China already has the spaceports that could be used to
provide the entry points," he added.
Charles Lurio, a Massachusetts-based private space sector expert, agrees that
China needs to create a regulatory environment that protects "the uninvolved
public" while allowing the industry to go through the necessary "trial and
error" period before the safety of passengers can approach anything like that
with aircraft.
"China [should] examine the regulations developed by the [FAA's Office of
Commercial Space Transportation] as a result of the Commercial Space Launch
Amendments Act of 2004. The single most important item in that legislation is
that passengers fly under 'informed consent' of the dangers involved, thus
greatly reducing the potential liability of the small, new companies and their
investors that are taking a chance on the new industry," said Lurio.
Among other things, this legislation creates a category of "permits" allowing
experimental vehicles to fly multiple times with little or no paperwork for
each individual flight, and to undergo reasonable modifications during
development without having to be given a new permit.
"That is coupled with a licensing procedure later to allow the vehicle to fly
commercially - with 'consenting passengers'. Note the distinction between this
regime and the 'certification' used for aircraft, which are very much further
down the curve of learning what creates the highest safety," said Lurio.
He recommends that China takes the right steps to ensure that whatever Chinese
government agency emerges to take charge of the regulatory regime for this new
space industry, it must from the start develop respectful relationships with
any new space tourism ventures and vehicle developers, and vice versa.
"Each has a perspective and understands aspects of the situation that the other
cannot foresee. This is what has happened in the US to date between the
developers and the [FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation]," said
Lurio.
China already has what might be an ideal spaceport, and it could soon be made
ready for sub-orbital flights in great number. The spaceport in question is the
Xichang Satellite Launch Center, an enormous launch facility in a relatively
remote area. When China's new launch facility on Hainan Island is completed in
the next decade, it will replace Xichang as China's primary launch facility for
large satellites heading into geosynchronous orbit, as well as other large
spacecraft. Xichang will be assigned a backup role. There and at other sites as
well, China could spawn its domestic space tourism industry with very little
effort.
"Space tourists are the only payloads that exist in sufficient quantity to make
reusable space vehicle technology worth developing. Therefore space tourism,
while being a fun activity in its own right, becomes a way of making all space
flight less costly and safer," said Webber. "So, China can achieve a great deal
without going for space tourism, for maybe a decade or more, but eventually
will need to engage in the space tourism business if it wants to move on to the
next generation of re-usable spacecraft operations, with the associated
benefits in costs and reliabilities."
Indeed, if China does not move to embrace open, international, private sector
space commerce, it will lose out.
"Their space program will become more geared toward the past then the future.
However, the same could be said for the US, if we do not reform our own space
operations to become more open and competitive internationally, we too will
lose out, and the losses will go far beyond space tourism," said Gold.
The current global economic crisis may take a big bite out a few space tourism
ventures in the coming months, and some may even fold as financing dries up.
This is truly a risky business, where players are taking big chances and where
bumpy rides often come with the territory.
Regardless of how many Chinese space tourists buy tickets and how quickly ITAR
reform takes place in the US, the first flights will happen soon. Whether or
not China soon emerges as a desirable destination on the space tourism map, all
the pieces seem to be falling into place quickly. Over the coming decade, the
space tourism business is preparing to really take off.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine, USA.
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