Page 1 of 2 Beijing wants it both ways in space
By Peter J Brown
In the first few days of the new Barack Obama administration, United States
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the US needs "a comprehensive
dialogue with China" and space-related matters will certainly be part of this
dialogue. Transparency will certainly be one of the most important issues to be
addressed.
China has kept the world almost completely in the dark about many of its space
activities for far too long. Two years after China conducted its anti-satellite
(ASAT) test, fragments of the target, an old Chinese weather satellite, are
still out there drifting in space. What is also out there is a lot of lingering
doubt and uncertainty about China's intentions in space.
Establishing the rules of the roads regarding space launches is one thing, and,
maintaining safety measures for existing satellites
and space vehicles while providing greater certainty in the commercial space
realm is vital. But the search for transparency in this case propels the US
onto stormy seas at a time when greater global cooperation is widely seen as a
necessity given the adverse economic climate.
"[This] cuts straight to the heart of the Obama administration's plans to seek
negotiated weapons bans in space, or 'rules based' arms control of any variety.
We have been down this road with the former Soviet Union. China will be even
tougher, and even more committed to using any arms control measure to disarm
its adversaries," said Richard Fisher, senior fellow at the Washington DC-based
International Assessment and Strategy Center, and the author of a new book, China's
Military Modernization, Building for Regional and Global Reach.
Lesser degrees of transparency will not suffice. Avoiding the guessing, and
suspicions that can fuel talk of worst case scenarios requires openness which
the Chinese have resisted with much success.
"The US is interested in understanding the organizational and funding structure
of China's space program. The assumption is that the People's Liberation Army
[PLA] controls the space program," said Dr Jing-dong Yuan, director of the East
Asia Non-proliferation Program at the California-based James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies. "In terms of launch organization, such as Shenzhou -
China's manned space flights - the military provides the security, logistics
and the overall command of the launch portion of the program [including] the
taikonauts who are PLA personnel. The research and development, production, and
pre-launch activities are pretty much civilian."
Of course, China and the US are as different as night and day in terms of their
political systems and the organizational structures of government agencies, so
discussions of transparency are never easy nor relaxed.
"[In the US], there is a clear path of decision making that includes official
policy positions along with doctrine and strategy," said Brian Weeden,
technical consultant at the Colorado-based Secure World Foundation. "In
contrast, by these same standards, the Chinese government is very opaque.
Little is known about who makes which decisions and what the official policy of
the Chinese government is in different situations."
"The risk is that each nation will assume the worst in its neighbors. That
could lead to wild speculation about what each is exactly doing. At best, it
could lead to runaway military spending," adds Weeden. "At worst, it could mean
that an incident in space, hostile or not, could be misinterpreted by one party
and become a flashpoint for armed conflict on the ground."
One situation that stands out is China's January 2007 ASAT test. It came after
China seemed to be opening up in 2006.
The year had started with one Republican member of the US Congress venturing to
China's remote Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center - one of China's four major
launch facilities also referred to sometimes as the Shuang Cheng Tzu Missile
and Space Test Center.
He told the Washington Post that he came away from Jiuquan with the impression
that he was one of the few foreigners to ever visit there. Granted this same
Congressman during his two-hour drive to Jiuquan was never out of sight of
Chinese military personnel who were deployed along the road in great number.
Next came NASA administrator Michael Griffin's visit to China - tightly
controlled or not - which featured well-intentioned attempts to lay a
constructive bilateral groundwork for the future. Media restrictions and trip
choreography aside, this was still Griffin's friendly summer of 2006 trip to
China.
Then in October 2006, the Information Office of the State Council's white paper
- "China's Space Activities in 2006" - was released. Days later, Dr Sun Laiyan,
administrator of China National Space Administration (CNSA) as well as Hou
Shenyuan and Zhu Yilin from the Chinese Academy of Space Technology told the
People's Daily that, among other things, this 2006 white paper proposed,
"adhering to the policy of opening up to the outside world, and actively
engaging in international space exchanges and cooperation".
All of these positive gains in 2006 were almost completely vaporized in an
instant by China's ASAT test in early
2007. A debate raged for some time over whether or not the US which knew in
advance that this test was going to
happen, should have tried to persuade the Chinese to cancel the test. The
US had already detected two prior ASAT
tests. More emphasis was placed on addressing US vulnerabilities in space,
and any hopes for transparency faded
fast.
China's latest attempts to become more transparent are emobodied in the
2008 China Defense White Paper
"For the first time, [this paper] describes how China's nuclear forces
would gradually be brought to increased levels
of alert during a crisis to deter an adversary and retaliate to nuclear
attack," writes Hans Kristensen on the the
Federation of American Scientists' "Strategic Security Blog" site. (See
"China Defense White Paper Describes Nuclear
Escalation" http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/01/chinapaper.php) "Despite
shortcomings, the paper provides a
new level of Chinese transparency about its forces and planning."
Revelations of this sort bear directly on efforts to achieve greater Chinese
transparency in space. After all, when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
testified before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on January 27, he said
the "areas of greatest concern are Chinese investments and growing capabilities
in cyber-and anti-satellite warfare, anti- air and anti-ship weaponry,
submarines, and ballistic missiles".
Gates pointed to improvements in the US-Chinese security relationship,
including the installation last April of a direct telephone link with the
Chinese Defense Ministry. At the same time, he avoided ambiguity by emphasizing
the "ample and untapped combat power in our naval and air forces", and "the
capacity to defeat any adversary that committed an act of aggression - whether
in the Persian Gulf, on the Korean Peninsula or in the Taiwan Strait".
"The full spectrum of US military capabilities on land, sea, and air now depend
on digital communications and the satellites and data networks that support
them. Our communications, navigation, weather, missile warning, surveillance
and reconnaissance systems rely on unfettered access to space. At the same
time, more nations - about 60 in all - are active in space, and there are more
than 800 satellites in orbit," said Gates.
The message from Gates is clear, purposeful and direct as he reminds everyone
that "unfettered access to space" is of primary importance to the US military.
He said nothing about transparency whatsoever. Certainly, he has never
forgotten the ASAT test which, he reminded the committee, took place during his
first year on the job.
Then, China elected not to issue any advance warning whatsoever of the ASAT
test. Warning or not, however, previous US administrations have not been clear
about what exactly the US expects from China.
"[Except for] a few people in NASA, such as Administrator Griffin, the United
States has not been interested in a dialogue with China on space. [It] has
attempted to isolate the Chinese space community. It refuses to allow China to
participate in the International Space Station, [and] still keeps China out of
the international launch services market," said Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst
and China Project Manager at the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned
Scientists. "In other words, not only is there is no incentive for the Chinese
to engage on space, the US has made it clear they do not value engagement in
this area. In fact, the US seems to find it threatening. Hopefully, this will
change with the new administration."
China's inability to adequately explain how the Chinese government works, who
makes which decisions, and how formal policy has irritated the US government
which operates mostly out in the open, making clear distinctions between
different branches of government, while trying to maintain well-defined roles
and responsibilities in each branch.
"There are standard methods of operating [that are] pretty much accepted not
just in the West, but in all countries seeking to be part of the globalized
world. Those methods deliberately include connectivity and openness [in terms
of sharing nonproprietary
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
