US sees devil in cross-strait detente
By Jian Junbo
SHANGHAI - In the past three decades since China and the United States
established formal diplomatic ties, Washington has attempted to maintain the
status quo on the Taiwan Strait, as this best serves US interests. Under this
policy, Washington wants to see neither Taiwan's independence nor the two sides
across the strait moving closer too quickly.
The Barack Obama administration will surely stick to this policy, despite
warming Sino-US ties. From this view, it is understandable why the US House of
Representatives has adopted a resolution that reiterates US support for
Taiwan's defense at a time when mainland China-Taiwan ties are warming
dramatically and rapidly.
On February 24, the House voted to adopt a resolution marking the "30th
anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)". Two days later, the resolution
was referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs of the US Congress by 17
representatives. China responded by expressing strong dissatisfaction and
lodged objections over the issue.
The TRA requires that the US "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive
character" to prevent China from taking the island by force. The TRA was passed
by the US Congress in 1979 to calm Taiwan's leaders after the US established
formal diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China (PRC) on
January 1 the same year.
The act is a US domestic law and China has never acknowledged its legitimacy,
believing it is in conflict with the spirit and content of the three Sino-US
communiques that form the foundation of Sino-US relations: the Sino-US Joint
Communique (1972), the Joint Communique of the PRC and the US Concerning the
Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (1979), and the Sino-US August 17
Communique (1982). The 1982 communique states, " ... arms sales to Taiwan will
not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those
supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations
between the United States and China, and [the US] intends to reduce gradually
its sales of arms to Taiwan, leading over a period of time to a final
resolution."
Since Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) or Nationalist party made a comeback
to power in Taiwan last year, tensions across the Taiwan Strait have gradually
eased and the chances of armed conflict notably reduced. Although it is
regularly criticized by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
- now the island's principal opposition - it seems Ma's administration always
manages to push through policies aimed at developing good relations with the
mainland.
Apart from establishing the "three direct links [mail, shipping and trade]"
across the strait and opening Taiwan to mainland tourists, the two sides now
plan to negotiate an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement to boost economic
ties. Beijing is also likely to give consent for Taiwan's accession to the
World Health Organization as an observer, a move the island hopes will expand
its "international space". This indicates both parties are somewhat confident
in the future of peaceful and even friendlier relations. Taiwan has also for
the first time changed the scenarios of annual war games from a Chinese
invasion to internal emergencies, such as terrorism and natural disasters.
All this shows that cross-strait relations are now in their best phase since
the KMT, then led by Chiang Kai-shek, fled the mainland for Taiwan in 1949. So
at first glance it seems strange that the US Congress should choose now to
adopt the TRA resolution - reduced tensions across the Taiwan Strait reduce the
need for US arms sales to Taiwan. But the move is in no way intended to further
detente across the Taiwan Strait.
The official reason given for the resolution was to mark the 30th anniversary
of the TRA. However, this year also marks the 30th anniversary of the 1979
joint Communique for the PRC and the US. Why didn't the House honor that? The
question can be asked in another way: why did the US House choose to reawaken
tensions instead of encouraging the healthy state of China-Taiwan relations?
Obviously, Washington thinks that cross-strait ties have progressed so rapidly
in the past year that they are deviating from the status quo it desires, that
is, a continuation of tensions. The House's adoption of the TRA resolution is a
blatant signal that the US is dissatisfied with warming China-Taiwan ties. If
we link this resolution to the recent Pentagon report on Chinese military power
- which stated that the PRC is militarily superior to Taiwan - maybe it's easy
to conclude that the US wants to see some instability on the Taiwan Strait.
(See US cries Chinese wolf
Asia Times Online, March 31, 2009.)
Apparently separating Taiwan from China - without granting it formal
independence - is the status quo which best serves US interests in the
Asia-Pacific. A separate Taiwan hostile to mainland China can be a card in the
US's hands. Such a Taiwan is a natural ally of the US that can help it expand
its power in the Far East and feed the US military-industrial complex. The US
will never give up this card to contain China's rise, although the US actually
recognizes that China is a strong competitor or even a potential successor to
its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region.
The TRA resolution highlights Washington's concern that the fast development of
good relations across Taiwan Strait could eventually lead to reunification. But
as Washington's status quo is unilaterally defined by the US, it is unfair to
both mainland China and Taiwan, which are the key, if not exclusive, players.
China has been trying to promote strait relations by winning the "hearts and
minds" of Taiwanese people, and fortunately, the Ma administration and many
Taiwanese people now to a certain extent accept the goodwill from across the
strait. No doubt, Southeast Asian countries also welcome this, as peaceful
relations on the strait contribute to peace and stability in the region.
The adoption of this resolution in the House reflects that the Taiwan issue is
a high priority for the US, and cannot be "bought over" by other issues, like
terrorism, the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program and economic
cooperation.
China has criticized the resolution and will reject similar ones in the future,
because they are in conflict with China's core interests. The Chinese
government has plentiful reasons to oppose this interference from the US: one
of the most important being that it could encourage groups (for example, the
DPP) that seek Taiwanese independence. The resolution may also pressure
Taiwan's ruling party to take more radical steps to seek "greater international
space", regardless of Beijing's stance.
Moreover, mainland China's military superiority to Taiwan cannot justify US
arms sales to Taiwan. This superiority is permitted according to the spirit of
the TRA itself, which stated that the US should gradually reduce sales of
weapons to Taiwan. It is not at all strange that China should possess a
stronger military than Taiwan, as China is a great power with huge territory
and growing national interests in the world. It's a joke for any country to
demand that China keep the same military capability as Taiwan.
So the TRA is losing its legitimacy as cross-strait relations ease, and the
US's commemoration of the act is not constructive for cross-strait peace and
stability. It could provoke internal confrontation between the KMT and the DPP,
and undermine the growing trust between Beijing and Taipei. However, if China
and Taiwan continue to use their own initiative to develop good relations, the
US can do nothing to influence the future of cross-strait relations, which
remain an all-Chinese affair.
Dr Jian Junbo is assistant professor of Institute of International
Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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