SHANGHAI - North Korea has said it will permanently quit the six-party talks on
its nuclear program. Although an undesirable outcome from the perspective of
non-proliferation, it is a predictable move by Pyongyang. This has put
immediate pressure on China-North Korea relations. Why has China been unable to
prevent this from happening? And what will be Beijing's next step?
North Korea may have a lot of reasons to be resentful of the international
system, in which it feels insecure and threatened, but this radical,
confrontational move will not help.
Pyongyang should welcome the new international environment. Since the Barack
Obama administration took over in the United
States it has signaled it is ready to solve international disputes through
dialogue. Yet North Korea still went ahead with its controversial "satellite"
launch on April 4. This has fueled tensions in East Asia, and other players in
the region have said the reckless move will certainly not be beneficial to the
North.
Pyongyang does not have many international allies, and China is the key, if not
sole, supplier of essential aid to it in areas ranging from food to energy,
medicine to fertilizers, and cash to conventional weapons. But China also has
its own reasons for maintaining ties, which include maintaining neighborly
relations, the nations' comradeship in the Cold War era, and lingering
geopolitical and strategic considerations.
However, China also has broader interests as a result of its past three decades
of reform and opening up. Beijing plans to modernize its economy and society,
and this requires a secure and peaceful neighborhood along its entire
periphery. The present North Korean stance of seeking security through owning
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles does not agree with Beijing's.
Beijing has accommodated some of the Pyongyang regime's basic needs for
survival, but North Korea has not repaid China in kind. North Korea assumes
that the best way to attain benefits and ensure its survival is to put pressure
on Washington through its nuclear and missile programs. This could be why
Beijing has failed to dissuade Pyongyang from taking aggressive and provocative
moves.
North Korea may resent any intervention by China in its foreign and defense
policies, but it is also aware that China poses no threat to its security.
North Korea's paramount security concern remains the United States.
Although North Korea is fully entitled to guard its sovereignty, its lack of
interest in respecting Beijing's legitimate concerns will not help it sustain
friendly relations with China. Respect and friendship must be reciprocal. If
North Korea continues to recklessly jeopardize China's legitimate security
interests while still receiving Chinese aid, Beijing will inevitably be forced
to review its relationship with Pyongyang.
It is obvious that the current sanctions regime against North Korea, which is
related to nuclear and missile technologies, heavy armaments and luxuries, has
nothing to do with China's existing trade or aid to the country. But given the
provocative behavior of North Korea, these sanctions could be strengthened and
expanded.
One could question the wisdom of North Korea's recent launch, whether it was a
missile or satellite and regardless of its success or failure. It is
understandable that North Korea sees a deterrence factor in its nuclear
program. But is it conceivable that Washington plans to launch a pre-emptive
strike against Pyongyang? No. So why does the Hermit Kingdom want to waste its
resources on nuclear and missile programs?
North Korea must be aware of Beijing's increasingly sophisticated and
successful handling of its relationships with the rest of the world.
Pyongyang's geopolitical and strategic importance for China will not increase,
and therefore it could well become the victim of its own self-isolation.
China has done its part, and any failures will be the outcome of Pyongyang's
own strategic mindset or Washington's stubborn unwillingness to effectively
engage North Korea. The George W Bush administration was first too arrogant to
engage with North Korea and later too eager after Pyongyang's proclaimed
nuclear test. Neither was a healthy policy approach.
The international community needs to draft a new strategy to engage North Korea
that is effective. It must be based on the principle that the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction constitutes a threat to world peace and security.
This is the United Nations Security Council's view which is supported by China
and other countries.
North Korea's nuclear weapons development can be averted with a strategy that
includes at least three components:
The first is to make non-militarily overtures to North Korea that would render
its nuclear program militarily useless, and economically self-destructive.
The second would be to not accept North Korea's nuclear status unless the
weapons program was aborted. This would entail strategic cooperation among
major powers. The US is the key to the success of such international
cooperation. Washington's proper handling of the Taiwan issue is crucial to
fostering the necessary confidence between China and the United States to form
a united front.
The third tactic would be to impose incremental economic sanctions against
North Korea to make it realize that its nuclear and missile programs are not
welcome or rewarding. Given the availability of sanctions at various
incremental levels, the international community has to take measured steps to
send the right signals to affect its behavior.
In this regard, China is expected to be more proactive in using its own
economic leverage on Pyongyang. This has to be taken in a concerted way -
together with non-militarily overtures and measured political and economic
pressure from the outside world.
Professor Shen Dingli is director of Center for American Studies and
executive dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University,
Shanghai.
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