BRUSSELS - The fact that Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is set to double as
chairman of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party has fueled hopes that an historic
meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao in their capacities as heads of the
two ruling parties is now feasible. If this takes place, it would be the
first-ever meeting of the two sides' top leaders since 1949, when the KMT lost
a civil war and fled to Taiwan.
It is very unlikely, however, that an official Hu-Ma meeting will happen until
after Ma takes up his KMT chairmanship in October. It could be even longer
given the current circumstances of relations across the Taiwan Strait and
internal politics on the island.
Earlier this month, Ma kicked off his campaign to run for KMT
chairman. He is the only candidate to run for the post, which he gave up two
years ago after he was convicted of corruption - a verdict later overruled by a
court of appeal. There is no doubt he will be "re-elected" as KMT chairman in
October at a party assembly.
This has prompted some analysts to say that one of his motivators for becoming
KMT chairman is to pave the way for a meeting with Hu to further advance
cross-strait relations. Only as KMT chairman could Ma possibly meet Hu, general
secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), on an equal footing. For
Beijing, Ma could never meet Hu in his capacity as president of the Republic of
China (ROC, Taiwan's official title), which implies "two Chinas". Nor would Ma
be willing to meet Hu as leader of the "central government" of China. The
prospects of a Hu-Ma meeting are not as bright as some think.
In fact, it is the CCP which has always hoped for a third round of CCP-KMT
cooperation to solve the issue of reunification. (The first round was launched
in mid-1920 to fight against warlords, the second during World War II.)
In his later years, CCP chairman Mao Zedong made an appeal for KMT-CCP
cooperation, but Mao and his lifetime rival Chiang Kai-shek died soon after. In
1979, Ye Jianying, then chairman of the Standing Committee of National People's
Congress, made a public appeal for talks between the mainland and Taiwan,
including party-to-party dialogue. In early 1995, then president Jiang Zemin
elaborated in an official statement to suggest that both sides start
negotiations on "officially ending hostility and gradually realize peaceful
unification", welcoming all political parties in Taiwan to participate in the
cross-strait talks.
But progress in detente on the strait was interrupted swiftly in late 1995 when
then Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui referred to cross-strait relations
"state-to-state". Party-to-party talks became impossible during Chen
Shui-bian's presidency from 2000 to 2008, as he advocated Taiwan independence.
Ironically, it was when Chen ruled Taiwan that the KMT, though it had become
the opposition, was able to begin talks with the CCP.
In 2005, KMT honorary chairman Lien Chan visited Beijing and met CCP general
secretary Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. This was the
first meeting between leaders of the two longtime rival parties since 1949,
though the KMT lost its reins in Taiwan. Both Lien and Hu agreed to establish
the KMT-CCP Forum to promote good relations between two sides across the Taiwan
Strait. Since then Hu has met KMT leaders (Lien or the incumbent chairman Wu
Po-hiung) every year and reached mutually beneficial agreements each time. But
as long as the KMT remained the opposition, it could hardly change Chen's
policy toward the mainland. Detente on the strait became possible only when KMT
made a comeback to power with Ma elected as the president in March 2008.
Since the KMT-CCP Forum is now an institutionalized, annual function it is
logical to think that when Ma becomes KMT chairman he would attend the forum
and meet Hu.
But the primary and utmost concern of Ma to run for KMT chairman is to ensure
he can win a second term of presidency in 2012. As KMT chief, he could mobilize
party resources to help him run the re-election campaign.
From this perspective, Ma would have great reservations about meeting Hu before
he secures his second term, even if he has every intention to do so. To win the
second term, Ma must put internal politics as his top consideration. In this
sense, only if meeting with Hu could help him in this regard, would he consider
it. Given the political situation on the island, Ma may see meeting Hu as a
liability.
First of all, Ma is Taiwan's elected president. This makes it hard for him to
go meet Hu in his capacity as KMT chairman in fear that he would be blamed for
trying to further the interests of his own party instead of the Taiwanese
people. In fact, KMT has been accused by the now opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) for "betraying" Taiwan to talk with CCP without the
"authorization" of the Taiwanese people. The DPP and the so-called pan-green
(pro-independence) camp still own a significant number of supporters, whose
votes Ma cannot overlook.
Second, even if he meets Hu in his capacity as KMT chairman, Beijing would in
practice treat him as the leader of Taiwan, not just as KMT chief, and wish to
talk with him on substantial issues concerning cross-strait political
relations. Ma may not be ready to engage in political talks with Beijing about
the ultimate reunification of the two sides, as he repeatedly pledges that
reunification is out of the question even if he is re-elected president. Yet
Beijing definitely would not want the first Hu-Ma meeting to be "fruitless".
And it would be meaningless for Ma to meet Hu and discuss issues concerning
daily people-to-people exchanges, because there is an established mechanism for
the two sides to negotiate on such issues. Negotiations between the Taiwan
Straits Exchange Foundation and the mainland's Association for Relations across
the Taiwan Straits prove to be effective. The CCP's intention to hold a meeting
between heads of the two parties is certainly not to resolve daily cross-strait
affairs, but to build and enhance mutual trust and goodwill on both sides.
Also, in 2012 Hu will step down. It may be safe and better for Ma to meet the
new CCP leader. By that time he would have already secured his second term and
would feel freer and more confident to deal with a new Chinese leader.
On the other hand, Beijing is also aware of the dramatic political changes that
have been taking place in Taiwan since late 1996. Democratization in Taiwan
makes KMT-CCP cooperation more complicated and spiny for Beijing. When Taiwan
was under one party rule under Chiang Kai-shek and his son, the KMT chairman
was also the state and military head who had the ultimate power to set or
change policies. But now the KMT is just one of the political parties - and
even an elected KMT president must seek public support.
Therefore there is an understanding that Beijing will not push for a Hu-Ma
meeting after Ma becomes KMT chairman. The CCP now wants to deal with various
political parties in Taiwan and won't confine itself to dealing with the KMT
alone. In reality, the CCP never refuses members of the DPP, despite their
pro-independence stance, to visit the mainland and hold talks. If a Hu-Ma
meeting cannot win Taiwanese people's hearts and minds due to its sensitivity,
there is no reason for the CCP to be so eager to do it.
In Beijing's view, the most important issue currently is not whether a Hu-Ma
meeting could be facilitated soon, but whether the fledgling mutual trust
between the two sides across the Taiwan strait can be further enhanced. If
mutual trust can be maintained and developed by other means to avoid the
political sensitivity related to the first Hu-Ma meeting, it's better to
postpone such a meet than to expedite it.
For both sides the time is ripe for an official Hu-Ma meet. That way, when it
happens it will be totally based on necessity and many pre-conditions. While
it's interesting to speculate what will happen when the two finally do meet,
there is no urgent need. Dr Jian Junbo, assistant professor
of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China,
is currently a visiting fellow of Institute for European Studies at Universite
Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Belgium.
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