Taiwan's 'opportunist' president alters tack
By Jian Junbo
AALBORG - If one had to use a single word to describe Taiwan's President Ma
Ying-jeou, who has been in office for a year, it would be "opportunist". He
appears to lack foresight and strategy, with hesitation and self-contradiction
manifest in his mainland policy.
Fresh in the people's minds is Ma's solemn pledge that he, as president of the
Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan's official title), would uphold the "one China"
principle stipulated in the ROC's constitution (which insists that the ROC's
sovereignty covers both the mainland and Taiwan).
But recently, he and his aides have been saying that Beijing should recognize
the realities across the Taiwan Strait - that there is the People's Republic of
China (PRC) on the mainland and the
ROC in Taiwan. Such an argument actually violates the "one China" principle and
in fact advocates for "two Chinas".
In another instance, when he was campaigning for the presidency in 2008, Ma
promised on March 17 that if elected he would start peaceful negotiations with
Beijing to end the decades-long hostility across the strait and build military
confidence.
Yet more recently, he has been saying he doesn't intend to hold any political
talks with Beijing. He made this view clear to the European parliament while
meeting some Dutch parliamentarians on August 2. It seems he has forgotten his
previous pledge, or doesn't view military confidence building as a political
affair.
Thus Ma gives the impression of being a person who cannot adhere to one
principle from beginning to end. An opportunist. In Beijing's eyes, an
opportunist Taiwanese leader with regards to Taipei's cross-strait policy could
easily become a person pushing for Taiwan's independence. For Beijing,
non-adherence to "one China" means support for Taiwan's independence, one way
or another. That is, for Beijing, "one China" is a principle that cannot be
challenged and changed, and it will never budge on this issue.
Ma may have got dizzy with success following the warming of cross-strait ties
since he was sworn in a year ago, and begun to speak thoughtlessly. In his
meeting with the Dutch parliamentarians, he said he would not start talks with
Beijing on a peace accord between the two sides unless Beijing removed its
missiles aimed at Taiwan. On another occasion, he proclaimed that he would
never recognize "one China" - even if he were involved in negotiations with
Beijing on the peace accord.
But this is just Ma's own wishful thinking. Or maybe he is trying to gain more
bargaining chips before he starts peace talks with Beijing.
Beijing's position on these two issues is very clear. For China, there is no
problem in practice with removing those missiles aimed at the island, as long
as Taipei formally agrees to stop and even fight any form of support for
Taiwan's independence. And this could be achieved through cross-strait talks.
It's also not a problem for Beijing that Ma refuses the "one China" principle
of the PRC. What "One China" means in Beijing's view is not the PRC, nor of
course the ROC, but a nation with independent sovereignty covering both the
mainland and Taiwan and a history of 5,000 years. It is based on such a vague
definition of "one China" that detente on the strait in the past year has
become possible.
For Beijing, it is in regard to the staunch principle of "one China" that Ma
appears self-contradictory. At times, Ma recognizes there is "one China", which
is the ROC according to its constitution, and at other times he seems more
interested in strengthening the idea of the "ROC in Taiwan" than "one China" as
precondition for political talks between the two sides, though this is an issue
to be solved through such talks.
Given the huge gap between Ma and Beijing's policy makers in their views on
conditions for political talks between the two sides, it is unlikely that such
discussions could start soon.
In fact, if Ma's remarks regarding cross-strait relations are carefully
examined, one could say he is more like a successor to or a shadow figure of
Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan's president from 1988-2000. Lee is famous for his support
for two Chinas (one on the mainland and one in Taiwan) in his last term of
presidency. In July 1999, he declared that the cross-strait relationship is one
of "state-to-state", in an interview with Voice of Germany. Ma can also be
considered at least as a sympathizer of two Chinas. However, in Beijing's eyes,
"two Chinas" is absolutely equal or similar to a declaration of Taiwan
independence.
As a graduate of Harvard University’s Faculty of Law, Ma Ying-jeou must
understand clearly that world leaders should not easily be swung by public
opinions in society if he is really interested in their best interests. The
fact that some Taiwanese are advocating for the island's independence cannot be
a legitimate excuse for Ma Ying-jeou to refuse political dialogue with Beijing
or deny "one China".
He should instead try to pave the way for a cross-strait political dialogue if
he wants to be a real statesman instead of an opportunist politician like his
predecessor, Chen Shui-bian. When given the opportunity, he should use his
authority and power to push for cross-strait political mutual trust. Now, since
he will soon take the chairmanship of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, he
should think less of his own re-election in 2012 and launch a historic meeting
with Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Ma now has the power to sign a peace accord,
which he should use as early as possible to lay a permanent foundation for the
future development of cross-strait relations.
But it seems that right now what Ma is really interested in is his winning his
next term. Nevertheless, for a great statesman, to launch a political dialogue
with Beijing and build a permanent base of mutual trust is far more important
and significant than one more presidency. Regretfully, Ma and his colleagues in
KMT are embroiled in power struggles. As leaders, they are often led rather
than leading.
Thus, what Beijing is facing is a Taiwanese leader who is trying to please
voters from the pro-independence "Pan-green" camp, a man who is in favor of the
idea of "two Chinas". Perhaps Ma's remarks can be considered a tactic to win
the upcoming mayoral elections or the next presidential campaign, but no one
can guarantee he will start political dialogue with Beijing in his second term
if he wins. Conversely the continuity of his personality will confuse Beijing
and lead it to believe he supports "two Chinas" and lacks strategic sight to
forge closer political relations between the two sides.
But Ma may not be able to go much further along this line. Beijing will not
always act in concert with an opportunist eyeing power and a sympathizer of
"two Chinas". If Ma thinks the future of Taiwan should be decided by Taipei and
the country’s 23 million Taiwanese, then he must also realize that cross-strait
relations are also partly decided by Beijing and China’s 1.3 billion Chinese,
not just by Taiwan.
Jian Junbo, assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies
at Fudan University, Shanghai, China, is currently a visiting scholar of
Department of History, International and Social Studies, Aalborg University,
Denmark.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
