TAIPEI - Sixty years after Taiwan split from China at the end of a civil war in
1949, there are still no clear signs of how the two sides will resolve their
dispute over the island's status, but as mainland China celebrates its victory
in the war on October 1, the indications are stronger than ever that both sides
are aiming for a peaceful solution, analysts say.
Beijing claims Taiwan is a renegade province, and has not renounced the use of
force to take it back for reunification, despite recent warming ties. Over past
decades, Taiwan has developed into a vibrant democracy whose people cherish
their freedom and separate identity from China.
Nonetheless, the dramatic improvement in relations between the two sides in the
past year makes a war unlikely, but so seems
unification or Taiwan independence.
China has proposed reunification under the so-called "One Country, Two Systems"
formula that offers Hong Kong and Macau, former colonies of Britain and
Portugal respectively, a high degree of autonomy, including a free press, with
top leaders having to be endorsed by Beijing. But Taiwan has rejected this
idea, having grown used to ruling itself democratically.
For now, Beijing and Taipei are shelving this issue, focusing instead on what
they can agree on - strengthening economic ties, which are seen as mutually
beneficial.
Analysts said that over time the sovereignty issue could perhaps work itself
out without a military conflict, as long as neither side pushes the other's
limits.
Beijing, for its part, has shown more maturity and flexibility in its handling
of the Taiwan issue, experts said.
"There's no doubt in their propaganda, reunification is a sacred mission, but
as time goes by, they have become more sophisticated and they know reality;
they know the consequences of taking Taiwan back by force," said Arthur Ding,
secretary general of the Taipei-based Council of Advanced Policy Studies.
Just a few years ago under an older generation of leaders, China often
saber-rattled, warning of war if the island dragged its feet on unifying. Now,
it prefers to let its economic clout do the talking.
Instead of threatening war if Taiwan moves toward independence as previous
generations of China's leadership have done, China's current central leadership
led by President Hu Jintao seems to have a stronger understanding of Taiwan's
politics as a democracy. They prefer to avoid angering Taiwanese people, and to
woo them instead, for instance by allowing thousands of Chinese tourists to
visit the island each month, from just a trickle before.
As Taiwan's biggest trade partner, China has much power to wield.
Annual trade between the two sides amounts to about US$130 billion and tens of
billions of dollars have been invested by Taiwanese businesses in China - the
island's biggest investment destination. More than 1 million Taiwanese now live
and work in China, the island's biggest export market.
Since Taiwan's China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou took office last year,
direct cross-strait flights and shipping links have been launched. Taiwan has
also agreed to allow Chinese investment in 100 sectors, including banking,
securities and real estate.
The two sides hope to sign an economic pact next year, which will make their
economies even more interdependent.
"In Chinese leaders' minds, there's no doubt they hope economic ties will help
them reach their final goal of eventual reunification," said Ding.
In a sign that China's influence on the island is growing, recently hotel and
tourism industry officials in the typically pro-independent south Taiwanese
city of Kaohsiung urged the city government not to show a film about exiled
Uyghur leader Rebiya Kadeer that China frowns on. The industries feared a
further loss of business, after Chinese delegations canceled bookings due to
China's anger over a recent Taiwan visit by the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan
spiritual leader whom Beijing considers a separatist.
As a result, the Kaohsiung mayor decided to pull the film from the festival and
screen it early to defuse the controversy. But the city later decided to show
the film at the festival nonetheless, due to its popularity. However, Taiwan's
central government has refused Rebiya Kadeer an entry visa to visit Taiwan
after she accepted an invitation by some Taiwanese groups. Taiwan likely made
the decision to avoid damaging relations with China. Beijing accuses Kadeer of
being a separatist and of orchestrating the July 5 riots in Urumqi, the capital
of Xinjiang, that left around 200 people dead.
Chinese tour groups have canceled large numbers of hotel bookings in Kaohsiung
for September and there are reports Chinese delegations and tourists are
staying away from the city in October as well. In just one year since tourism
was opened between the two sides, Chinese tourists now make up 30% of the
total, according to industry officials who bemoan the loss of business and have
complained about the city's decision to show the film.
"In terms of dealing with Taiwan independence, all China has to do now is apply
a little pressure, such as by telling mainland tour groups to skip Kaohsiung
and they will listen," said Sung Kuo-chen, a political science professor at
National Cheng-chi University's Institute of International Relations. "This
creates a lot of pressure on even pro-independence politicians like Kaohsiung's
mayor."
Such a trend suggests even the traditionally pro-independence opposition
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan may have to become more centrist
so as not to lose Chinese business and ultimately votes.
"If this trend continues, Taiwan will basically be reunified with China in all
aspects but name," said Sung.
But there's a limit to how much pressure the Taiwanese can take from China.
When it comes to their cherished freedoms - including the freedom to show a
film - Taiwanese are showing an unwillingness to give in.
Surveys show most Taiwanese people favor neither unification nor independence,
but maintaining the status quo.
It's unclear whether Taiwanese people will eventually warm up to some form of
unification with full autonomy for Taiwan as China democratizes or becomes more
economically advanced.
It also remains to be seen whether future generations of Chinese leaders will
see unifying with Taiwan as important as the previous generations. Current
Chinese leaders have attached more emphasis on preventing independence than
unifying.
The outcome of closer economic ties and increased interactions may not be what
China's leaders expected, analysts say. Increased interaction with Taiwan means
more Chinese people are seeing for the first time what democracy in a Chinese
society is like.
While mainlanders have laughed at fights in Taiwan's legislature, they can also
see officials in Taiwan are held accountable. Recent examples include former
president Chen Shui-bian being sentenced to life imprisonment for corruption
and former premier Liu Chao-shiuan being forced to step down over the
administration's poor response to Typhoon Morakot.
"The value of Taiwan to China will depend on how China will evolve in coming
decades," Ding said. "With regard to democracy, they can learn something from
Taiwan."
Regardless of what may happen, it's unlikely the two sides will return to their
hostile relationship of the past, experts said.
"We can't turn back. Taiwan will rely more and more on China's market. The two
economies are increasingly interlinked," said Sung.
Nonetheless, they remain heavily armed against each other. China has around
1,000 missiles targeted at Taiwan and Taipei continues to make major arms
purchases.
And there's no telling when a peace treaty will be signed.
"They should remove the 1,000 missiles. We certainly don't want to negotiate a
peace agreement under the threat of attack," Ma said recently.
"We still have a lot of differences that will take a lot of wisdom and
pragmatism [to resolve]."
Cindy Sui is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
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