Over the past few days, the big blue 747 known as Air Force One with United
States President Barack Obama on board crisscrossed the South China Sea from
Tokyo to Singapore, and then Singapore to Shanghai. Flying high over the most
disputed sea in East Asia today - at least as far as the US and China are
concerned - Obama has been shuttled from one Asian metropolis to the next.
What Obama needed to write on the lower part of his palm before he departed the
US was one word - "missiles" - because while there are many important economic
and even environmental issues that Obama wants to address, nothing except North
Korea is more important than China's military buildup, its military intentions,
and its deployment of new missiles.
At the same time, nothing that Obama said on this trip was likely
to fundamentally alter China's view of the US. Some Chinese see the US as an
unwanted intruder in the region in general, and in the South China Sea in
specific. The ongoing dialogue aimed at resolving any differences surrounding
the South China Sea - the so-called Military Maritime Consultative Agreement
discussions between the two countries - is scheduled to resume next month.
Thus far on this trip, Obama has remained silent when it comes to important
military issues involving China.
By stressing that China and the US are not destined to be adversaries, Obama is
trying to send what he sees as the right message. During the brief town hall
session in Shanghai on Monday, for example, he was asked these questions by one
Chinese student, "In your opinion, what's the main reason that you were honored
[with] the Nobel Prize for Peace? And will it give you more responsibility and
pressure to - more pressure and the responsibility to promote world peace? And
will it bring you - will it influence your ideas while dealing with the
international affairs?"
Aside from another question about Afghanistan, this provided the sole
opportunity for Obama to speak frankly about where things stand between the two
countries.
Among other things, Obama said, "Although I don't think that we can ever
completely eliminate violence between nations or between peoples, I think that
we can definitely reduce the violence between peoples - through dialogue,
through the exchange of ideas, through greater understanding between peoples
and between cultures."
"I'm hopeful that in my meetings with President Hu [Jintao] and on an ongoing
basis, both the US and China can work together to try to reduce conflicts that
are taking place," Obama continued. "We have to do so, though, also keeping in
mind that when we use our military, because we're such big and strong
countries, that we have to be self-reflective about what we do; that we have to
examine our own motives and our own interests to make sure that we are not
simply using our military forces because nobody can stop us. That's a burden
that great countries, great powers, have, is to act responsibly in the
community of nations. And my hope is, is that the United States and China
together can help to create an international norms that reduce conflict around
the world."
When he said "we have to examine our own motives and our own interests to make
sure that we are not simply using our military forces because nobody can stop
us", you have to wonder if Obama really wanted to suddenly hold up a big
poster-sized picture of China's massive missile display during the huge 60th
anniversary parade last month in Beijing.
A bit of background is in order. Obama accepted Hu's invitation to visit China
at their meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 financial summit in
London. On April 1, both leaders announced the visit and that the two nations
had agreed "to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive US-China
relationship for the 21st century and to maintain and strengthen exchanges at
all levels".
"Both sides share a commitment to military-to-military relations and will work
for their continued improvement and development," the joint announcement
stated, "The two sides agreed to maintain close communication and coordination
and to work together for the settlement of conflicts and reduction of tensions
that contribute to global and regional instability, including the
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Iranian nuclear issue, Sudan
humanitarian issues, and the situation in South Asia."
What went completely unmentioned there was that only a few days earlier, the US
Department of Defense had issued its latest "Report to Congress on the Military
Power of the People's Republic of China" which is required each year by the
National Defense Authorization Act of 2000.
China is deeply offended by this annual report by the US, and finds its content
and its menacing tone unacceptable.
"Beijing publicly asserts that China's military modernization is 'purely
defensive in nature', and aimed solely at protecting China's security and
interests. Over the past several years, China has begun a new phase of military
development by beginning to articulate roles and missions for the PLA [People's
Liberation Army] that go beyond China's immediate territorial interests, but
has left unclear to the international community the purposes and objectives of
the PLA's evolving doctrine and capabilities," said the report on page 5.
"Moreover, China continues to promulgate incomplete defense expenditure figures
and engage in actions that appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies.
The limited transparency in China's military and security affairs poses risks
to stability by creating uncertainty and increasing the potential for
misunderstanding and miscalculation. The US continues to work with our allies
and friends in the region to monitor these developments and adjust our policies
accordingly."
Missiles were constantly mentioned. On page 33 for example, the report's
authors, which included Abraham Denmark, director of the Asia-Pacific Security
Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC, outlined
the kinds of missiles the US might encounter one day on the South China Sea:
One
area of investment involves combining conventionally-armed anti-ship ballistic
missiles [ASBMs] based on the CSS-5 [DF-21] airframe, C4ISR for geo-location
and tracking of targets, and onboard guidance systems for terminal homing to
strike surface ships.
As described in an authoritative 2004 article for the Second Artillery Corps,
the ASBM could employ 'terminal-sensitive penetrating sub-munitions' to
'destroy the enemy's carrier-borne planes, the control tower and other easily
damaged and vital positions'. This capability would have particular
significance, as it would provide China with preemptive and coercive options in
a regional crisis.
Somehow, the hard language used in the 2009
report seems incompatible with the rosy language in the joint announcement
which followed shortly thereafter in London.
Flash forward to China this week, and once again, another curious disconnect
can be detected. This time it is the completion just days ago of the joint
"Juniper Cobra" ballistic missile defense (BMD) exercise in Israel, which was
described as the largest and most sophisticated BMD drill of its kind ever
held. Hundreds of US military personnel along with US warships joined together
with Israeli forces in order to fend off a wide range of simulated missile
attacks.
Not once has Obama mentioned "Juniper Cobra" on his trip to Asia - at least not
in public.
But Juniper Cobra is casting a shadow of war over Asia. Just as Obama was
boarding Air Force One for the long flight to Tokyo, India's chief of staff,
General Deepak Kapoor, was departing Israel after a four-day visit which
included talks with Israel's chief of the general staff, Lieutenant General
Gabi Ashkenazi, as Juniper Cobra was wrapping up. Israel, which has emerged as
India's top supplier of military hardware, used the occasion of his visit to
announce the sale of a US$1.1 billion upgraded tactical air defense system to
India, among other things.
Obama must realize that his critics will pounce if he fails to show his
national security colors, and that US allies all across Asia may be shaking
their heads. Mere mention of the possible relocation of the US troop deployment
on Okinawa and attempts to shore up the US-Japan relationship will not suffice.
Juniper Cobra has relevance both to India and Japan as well, and yet Obama is
not saying anything publicly about it.
"This is a very important visit both for the United States and China, and for
President Obama personally, who has never been to China before. And this is
really an opportunity for him to see China with his own eyes and to understand
China's accomplishments and also understand its history," Bonnie Glaser, senior
fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC,
told China's state news agency, Xinhua, last week.
According to Glaser, "now it was time to 'operationalize the agenda' [set out
in April] and identify areas where both countries could cooperate."
This could well end up being a masterful performance by Obama after all. Once
again, there is an enormous sense of pride on display in China that cannot go
unmentioned. And like it or not, Obama is proving to be the catalyst.
"No one can abuse China or treat China differently because our country has its
dignity," Song Yang, a resident of Beijing, told the BBC.
Instead of risking a disaster on the diplomatic front by mentioning military or
missile-related concerns, perhaps Obama is far wiser, even scoring numerous
points on an entirely different front - the social networking domain. The
comment section of one prominent Chinese blog site was buzzing, for example, as
everyone shared thoughts about the town hall session which was aired live for
Shanghai TV viewers.
"Chinese university students are all in the 'future' class. Some are future
overseas students in America; some are future house slaves; today those at the
town hall meeting are future officials," said one netizen.
"The first female student, Chen Xi, who asked a question to Obama is the deputy
director of the research office of the Communist Youth League of Fudan
University. The second male student who asked a question to Obama: Huang Lihe,
the Communist Youth League secretary of foreign language school of Tongji
University," said another.
So, add it all up and it looks like Obama put missiles aside and engaged
China's Communist Youth League instead. But has his visit appeared too
controlled and too phony as a result? Perhaps. Regardless, this trip and this
chapter in Obama's Asian primer will not be ending on Thursday in Seoul as many
expected. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be arriving at the White
House early next week.
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine.
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