SUN WUKONG New stars in China's firmament
By Wu Zhong, China Editor
HONG KONG - China has given a strong signal as to who are the rising stars to
watch as possible future leaders of the world's biggest nation with the
promotion of two young cadres to key provincial posts.
In an apparent move to prepare for a smooth succession of power in 2012 and
beyond, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a major reshuffle of
regional leaders last week.
Hu Chunhua, promoted to party secretary in Inner Mongolia, and Sun Zhengcai,
the agriculture minister who takes the top job in northeastern Jilin province,
are both 46 and were barely teenagers when Deng Xiaoping, who envisaged an
unbroken "chain" of
leaders to ensure the CCP's long-lasting rule, became paramount leader in 1978.
Political observes believe Hu's star shines brightest, and the former governor
of northern Hebei province has the best chance of being groomed to follow in
the footsteps of vice president Xi Jinping, the most likely successor to
President Hu Jintao, who must step down in 2012. Hu Chunhua (no relation to the
president) would then become the sixth-generation leader in a line stretching
from Mao Zedong, through Deng and Jiang Zemin, to the current supreme leader
and his successor.
Hu Chunhua has won the tacit backing of the president through his work in the
regions - the more remote and underdeveloped the better - experience which the
president insists cadres must gain to stand a chance of promotion to the power
center. A young official appointed to head a remote province is worthy
watching.
"It is like in a horse race; one must be given the opportunity to run in the
first place," a political observer in Beijing says.
After graduating from Peking University, where he majored in Chinese language
and literature, in 1983, Hu Chunhua volunteered to work in Tibet, where he
served under Hu Jintao as deputy secretary of the Tibetan Communist Youth
League. In late 2006, having worked there for 23 years, he was promoted from
deputy party chief of Tibet to first secretary of the Chinese Youth League, a
post Hu Jintao held from 1984-85. Hu Chunhua was named governor of Hebei in
2008.
If Hu Chunhua could be said to be a protege of Hu Jintao, then Sun Zhengcai is
a protege of Jia Qinglin, a close ally of former leader Jiang Zemin. Sun earned
his PhD in agriculture from Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry
Sciences in the late 1980s. He later headed a county in the Beijing
municipality and became party chief of the capital's Shunyi District in 2002.
Jia, as Beijing municipal party chief from 1996 to 2003, "discovered" and
promoted Sun.
While last week's reshuffle makes Hu and Sun the youngest provincial party
chiefs in several decades, all five newly appointed are under the age 60. Hu
and Sun's promotions, however, mark the rise of the "60s-generation" in the
communist officialdom, which in itself is a remarkable change in, if not an end
to, the tradition of "old-man politics".
The direct cause of this round of regional reshuffle is the retirements of Chu
Bo in Mongolia, Zhang Wenyue in Liaoning, and Xu Guangchun in Henan, all three
reaching the compulsory retirement age of 65 set by the CCP for ministerial and
provincial officials.
Analysts believe this is just the start of a nationwide reshuffle to pave way
for a smooth power transfer in the CCP 18th Congress scheduled in 2012 when
President Hu, Premier Wen Jiabao and other senior leaders are set to step down.
A game of musical chairs will be played at the 18th party congress that could
push the young Hu and Sun to the center of power. Given the compulsory
retirement age of 70 for a politburo member, at least three more of the nine
members on the Standing Committee of the politburo will have to resign: Wu
Bangguo (chairman of the National People's Congress), Jia Qinglin (chairman of
the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) and Zhou Yongkang (in
charge of the country's law enforcement).
Li Changchun (in charge of propaganda and ideological affairs) and He Guoqiang
(overseeing organization and personnel affairs) will be 68 and 69 respectively.
Whether they can remain in power for another five-year term remains
problematic.
The only two politburo standing committee members who will stay for sure are Xi
Jinping, the 56-year-old vice president tipped to succeed Hu Jintao, and
Executive Vice Premier Li Keqiang, who, now aged 55, is set to replace Wen
Jiabao in 2012. Many analysts believe they still need to make more effort to
prove their worthiness in the runup to the congress if they are not to be
challenged.
Of the 16 ordinary politburo members, at least four will have to retire because
of their age: Wang Gang (vice chairman of CPPCC), Wang Zhaoguo (vice chairman
of NPC and president of All-China Federation of Trade Unions), Liu Qi (Beijing
municipal party secretary) and General Guo Boxiong (vice chairman of the
Central Military Commission). Vice Premier Hui Liangyu and Xinjiang party
secretary Wang Lequan will be 68 and is also likely to go.
All these vacancies will need to be filled. The promotion of existing politburo
members to the standing committee will make room for officials with experience
of heading provinces to be elevated to the power base of China.
Some of the existing politburo members, such as Li Yuanchao (director of the
CCP's Central Organization Department), Wang Qishan (vice premier), Wang Yang
(Guangdong provincial party secretary) and Bo Xilai (Chongqing municipal party
secretary), are likely to be promoted into the politburo standing committee. In
turn, some officials with experience in heading a province will be promoted
into the politburo - the very power center of China.
From the viewpoint that politics is the art of the balance of power, Sun's
promotion could be seen as a balance to the rise of Hu Chunhua. Sun, an
agriculture experts and scholarly official like Premier Wen Jiabao, may
therefore have an opportunity to one day be premier to Hu Chunhua's party
chief.
There are too many variables in Chinese politics for this constellation of
rising stars to be fixed, and the three years until the next party congress
will present plenty of time for new alignments to emerge. Or, to use the
analogy favored by Deng, it cannot be said that the "chain of succession'' is
firmly bonded.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
