Page 1 of 2 Beijing in a high-level balancing act By Jing-dong Yuan
BEIJING - With China and the United States marking 30 years since the
establishment of diplomatic relations, unprecedented high-level exchanges in
2009 increased cooperation on global and regional issues, from energy
conservation to financial stability and helped in the continued search to
maintain a stable relationship as the balance of power shifts.
Barack Obama in November became the first US president to make a state visit to
China within one year of taking office, after he and President Hu Jintao agreed
to build a comprehensive bilateral relationship for the 21st century when the
two leaders met for the first time at the Group of 20 (G-20) summit in London
in April. They also met on the sidelines of a number of other international
meetings.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made her maiden visit to
China in February while her counterpart Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi went to
the US in March. Ministerial exchanges filled the diplomatic calendar, bringing
enhanced consultation and dialogue on such issues as the global financial
crisis, energy, environment, and climate change. The US secretaries of commerce
and energy visited China and the first US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue
took place in Washington. In October, vice chairman of the Central Military
Commission General Xu Caihou visited the United States.
The unprecedented frequency of high-level bilateral consultation generated
heightened expectations - and anxiety for some - that China and the United
States might join hands in managing many of the global and regional challenges,
forming their own Group of 2. Although Beijing dismissed that notion,
recognition is growing that China is capable of - and therefore should be -
playing an important role in the changing global economy.
Within the bilateral context, growing consultation and exchanges are indicative
of China's arrival as a global power as well as the increasing economic
interdependence of the two countries. The United States is a major destination
for exports and a critical source of investment and technology transfer for
China. Annual trade between the two nations is more than $400 billion. China
holds $800 billion of the US debt and its $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange
reserves are dominated predominantly in US dollars.
The current global economic and financial crisis, and the US recession in
particular, has hurt China's economy. Chinese exports fell precipitously in
2008 as the US market contracted, forcing millions of migrant workers to lose
their jobs. At the same time, the devaluation of the US dollar due to growing
deficits, threatens China's holdings of the currency.
While past patterns of US over-consumption and Chinese under-consumption cannot
continue, adjustments in both countries in response to the crisis have yet to
address fundamental structural problems in their economies. Nonetheless,
Beijing and Washington have recognized the critical need for improving
information exchanges about macro-economic policies on domestic savings and
consumption and budget deficits, while refraining from protectionism to help
create non-inflationary growth. In that regard, analysts were able to credit
China's $586 billion stimulus package and interest rate cuts with driving a
speedy recovery in economic growth to the 7-8 percent rates seen in recent
quarters.
As the largest energy consumers and producers of greenhouse gases, together
accounting for more than 40% of global emissions, China and the US bear special
responsibility on climate change. The two governments have agreed to
cooperation and continued dialogue on clean energy and the environment.
A major development in bilateral relations was the visit by General Xu Caihou
to the United States in late October. The Maritime Military Consultative
Dialogue has also taken place and high-level military exchange visits are
scheduled for next year. As one of the most critical and fragile elements of
the relationship, military-to-military exchanges serve to build confidence and
deepen mutual understanding.
To sum up bilateral relations in 2009, continued momentum in parts was
necessitated by the need to address global economic and financial issues and
motivated by leaders in the two countries seeking a more stable and cooperative
relationship that is indispensable if many global and regional economic and
security challenges are to be resolved. At the same time, the strengthening and
institutionalization of official bilateral channels contributes to better
management of disputes and differences and to the promotion of opportunities
for cooperation.
Beyond the bilateral context
Beijing and Washington share many common interests as varied as helping the
global economy to recovery and restoring the international financial order, to
dealing with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. However,
differences on the issues of priority and who should bear what costs continue
to prevent full cooperation.
How to resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons program is a case in point.
China expressed "resolute opposition'' after North Korea's second nuclear test
in May 2009, canceling a visit to Pyongyang by Chen Zhili, vice chairwoman of
the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee and planned visits by
North Korean officials.
Most intriguingly, not only did the foreign ministry denounce the test,
high-ranking officers in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) also voiced strong
objections. Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie during talks with his South
Korean counterpart warned against further provocation by the North and called
on Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on nuclear disarmament. PLA
Deputy Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, speaking at the
IISS 2009 Asian Security Summit in Singapore, reiterated China's opposition to
nuclear proliferation and added that the Korean peninsula should move toward
denuclearization.
China subsequently supported a UN Security Council resolution imposing new
sanctions on North Korea. Beijing agrees with Washington that Pyongyang should
return to the Six-Party Talks and that denuclearization remains the goal.
However, apart from measures directly related to North Korea's nuclear weapons
program, where Beijing supports targeted sanctions, China balks at approaches
aimed at isolating Pyongyang or toppling Kim Jong-il's regime. For Beijing,
stability on the Korean Peninsula and the importance of having a buffer zone to
its north continue to inform its policy.
Indeed, Beijing appears inclined to patient diplomacy in resolving the North
Korean nuclear issue. If anything, heightened sanctions across the board could
seriously destabilize the peninsula, threatening important Chinese security
interests. The post-test debates among Chinese analysts notwithstanding, recent
months have seen renewed high-level contact, including visits to North Korea by
Premier Wen Jiabao and General Liang. China's economic ties and investments
there continue to expand. Here the major difference between Beijing and
Washington is not so much the ultimate denuclearization goal, but how to get
there.
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