Doubts over China's 'wonder weapon'
By Jens Kastner and Wang Jyh-Perng
TAIPEI - In the past 12 months, the world's military journals have been awash
with analyses of the power balance in the West Pacific possibly tilting in
China's favor. Pundits and reporters proclaim in unison that Beijing is about
to achieve its goal of making United States military interventions in future
conflicts fought out in the Yellow, the East China or South China Seas a very
difficult, if not impossible, mission.
Most think-tanks see Washington's democratic allies in the region as being
threatened by China's boosted reconnaissance abilities, its submarine fleet and
a growing arsenal of cruise and tactical missiles.
Yet, among all of Beijing's options to challenge US naval
supremacy, the weapon that sends chills down China's opponents' spines is what
is regarded as a Wunderwaffe, or wonder weapon, the Dong Feng 21D, the
world's first anti-ship ballistic missile. If the assessments of observers
prove correct, China's wonder weapon is to make its way into history books -
with it, China would be able to take on the US Navy's aircraft carriers, the
pride of the US military.
The outcome of a simulation published by Orbis, an American journal on
international relations and US foreign policy, clearly did its job in making
military circles uneasy. After a hit by a Dong Feng 21D, it took the
nuclear-powered supercarrier USS George Washington a mere 20 minutes to
sink.
The DF-21D, as the missile is commonly called, is a modification of a
solid-propellant, single-warhead medium-range ballistic missile that China has
been working on since the late 1960s. The newest version, also going under the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization reporting name CSS-5 Mod-4, is believed to
come with the unique feature that it can target a moving aircraft carrier as
far away as 3,000 kilometers from a land-based mobile launcher.
Enabled by this new weapon, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) hopes to
gain the option to control the West Pacific from land, as opposed to engaging
with the US Navy in sea battles that China would be unlikely to win. If the
DF-21D is really as sophisticated as has been widely speculated, the US would
have to risk its neck when coming to South Korea's, Japan's or Taiwan's aid in
the event of Chinese military aggression.
It can safely be assumed that a fair portion of Washington's military
strategies would be rendered useless it the US were to lose the ability to
securely travel anywhere using aircraft carriers from which jet fighters start
their devastatingly precise bombing campaigns - as has been seen in the wars
against Serbia and Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
Like the DF-21D's earliest predecessor, the German V-2, a long-range World War
II ballistic missile that the Nazis called a Wunderwaffe, China's
anti-ship ballistic missile remains shrouded in mystery. Military experts from
Washington to Taipei have been left guessing its exact capabilities. It is
suggested that the missile's high-angle re-entry into the atmosphere, as well
as its speed, make it almost impossible to defend against.
What further worries American defense analysts is that the Chinese apparently
have the advantage of being able to screw on almost anything that's found in
the PLA's warhead arsenals, such as HEAT shells, which are extremely efficient
at penetrating steel, as well as cluster bombs, which eject smaller
sub-munitions.
The Chinese could even destroy their opponents' electronic control systems -
critical to the operation of ground vehicles and aircraft - by producing
damaging current and voltage surges with the help of electromagnetic pulse
bombs loaded into the DF-21D. Yet another option would be to fit a missile with
a thermobaric fuel-air bomb. This warhead produces a blast wave of a very long
duration, a feature that is useful in military applications where the attacker
aims to increase the number of casualties and cause greater damage to
infrastructure.
As a strong indication of how serious the US sees the threat of China's
missiles, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently lamented that the DF-21D
"has the ability to disrupt [American] freedom of movement and narrow our
strategic options".
Among others, Taiwan has reason to be most concerned about China's apparent
potential to deter US carriers from entering the Yellow Sea and the East China
Sea. The island is home to some of the world's most accomplished scholars who
dedicate their careers to monitoring and researching China's security policy.
One of these is Professor Arthur Ding, a research fellow at the China Politics
Division at Taiwan's National Chengchi University. Apart from this assignment,
he also holds the position of a professor at the Political Warfare Cadres
Academy in Taipei. Ding spoke to Asia Times Online on the DF-21D.
Asia Times Online: The DF-21D can strike US aircraft carriers and
sink them in a very short time. Will this development have an impact on the
naval balance in the East China Sea?
Arthur Ding: This is the ultimate goal China aims to achieve. But
technically speaking, it's not feasible. That is because when the missile
re-enters the atmosphere, its speed would be somewhere around Mach 7 [2,382.03
meters/second]. That is so fast that there would not be sufficient time to
re-direct the warhead to hit an US aircraft carrier precisely. A carrier could
only be hit indirectly by a special warhead, such as a fuel-air explosive.
AToL: How will the DF-21D affect Taiwan's security situation?
AD: There's no doubt that China's military modernization does
increase the risk for US involvement. Nevertheless, aircraft carriers are
unlikely to be the only instruments the US will have at hand. As time goes by,
many more weapons may be developed. If this is the case, China will be
frustrated and disappointed if it's only focusing on scenarios involving
aircraft carriers. Thus, the DF-21D mainly serves as a psychological deterrent
for the US.
Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based writer. Wang Jyh-Perng is a reserve
captain of the Taiwan Navy and associate research fellow at the Association for
Managing Defense and Strategies.
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