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    Greater China
     Oct 28, 2010


China's heir apparent tied to Taiwan
By Jens Kastner

TAIPEI - To a certain extent, the life of every person on the planet will be affected by China's next leader. But the people who are most aware of this fact are the Taiwanese. For better or worse, their fate and that of their children is directly connected to cross-strait relations.

Ever since it became apparent that Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is set to succeed President Hu Jintao in 2012, there have been good reasons for the Taiwanese to watch Hu's heir apparent closely. Taiwan's intelligence agency pursues its trade of observing and assessing, and its reporters are fascinated by the news that Xi's singing-star wife has family ties to Taiwan.

Xi is further said to have maintained ample connections to Taiwanese businesspeople based in China. But whether the next

 

supreme leader's personal bond to Taiwan will bring about genuine changes in Beijing's cross-strait policy, or merely mean the replacement of one leader with another, remains the big question.

Most experts say it's likely to be the latter. In terms of cross-strait policy, China is simply not expected to change its course.

"Xi Jinping will, just like Hu Jintao, be a moderate leader," says Wong Yiu-chung, a professor of political science at Hong Kong's Lingnan University and an expert on China-Taiwan-Hong Kong relationships. "Regarding Taiwan, Xi's policies won't differ much from what we have seen from Hu."

To the Taiwanese, what stands out most about China's next president are his personal connections to the island. It's there that his brother-in-law and other of his wife's relatives live. However, although confirmed by Taiwan's National Security Bureau, the exact whereabouts of these relatives has been treated as a state secret. The only two things the public has been told are that the clan resides in the southern backwater town of Chiayi, and that Xi's wife, Peng Liyuan, a well-known folk singer in China, paid an eight-day visit to Taiwan in 1997 for the purpose of cultural exchanges.

Shortly after Peng's visit to Taiwan, Xi began his ascent to the post of governor of Fujian province. Peng, whose songs could once be sung in any of China's karaoke bars, was muzzled by the Chinese Communist Party. She was allegedly prohibited from pursuing her career as a high-profile entertainer so as not to interfere with Xi's political career. Her Taiwanese family relations also became a matter of national security. Still, it's not as if Peng was banned from singing. Presently, she hums tunes in her role as a major-general in the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army, where she heads the PLA song and dance troupe.

It's not only through his wife that China's next president has a personal bond to Taiwan: there's another relation that raises questions that are about as pressing.

A Taiwanese legislator in the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), whose identity hasn't been disclosed, is said to have been a good friend of Xi's father, Xi Zhongxun. Xin was one of the founders of the Red Army, was purged by Mao Zedong in the late 1950s, and later became a pioneer of Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening-up in the 1980s.

The unnamed Taiwanese legislator reportedly has known Xi Jr since he was a child, giving room for speculation that there has been an inappropriate uncle-nephew relationship between a high-ranking KMT official and China's future leader. When grilled by legislators over the matter, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan, who is responsible for handling Taiwan's relations with China, acknowledged the existence of such a link and justified it by saying that in times of warming cross-strait ties, friendships between Chinese and Taiwanese were normal. Nevertheless, just as it is with the mysterious brother-in-law, the name of Xi's Taiwanese friend is kept secret.

All through Xi Jinping's astonishing ascent, he has had extensive contacts with Taiwanese businesspeople. To some observers, this reality has helped shape him.

After Xi became governor of Fujian - which lies just across the Taiwan Strait and is the ancestral home of many Taiwanese families - in the late 1990s, he was credited with having had the right touch when dealing with Taiwanese entrepreneurs active in China. Xi managed to attract investment from Taiwan and boost Fujian's free-market economy. Later, he was appointed governor of neighboring Zhejiang province, and he then became Shanghai's party chief and vice president.

Xi's political and personal background suggest that from 2012 on, China will have a leader friendlier to Taiwan than Hu. After all, Hu promulgated the infamous Anti-Secession Law, which makes the use of force against Taiwan mandatory if the island were to declare independence. But Taiwan's National Security Bureau director Tsai Teh-sheng cautioned that Xi's rich knowledge of Taiwan would not necessarily make him a friend.

Tsai's assessment of Xi taking the helm could not be much bleaker. "In the past, Chinese officials were categorized as either belonging to the dove faction or hawk faction in terms of their stances toward Taiwan," Tsai said at a recent legislative session. "But now such a categorization is meaningless, because as far as sovereignty and territorial issues are concerned, all Chinese leaders are hardliners and nationalists."

Whether China's next president will make it into history books as someone friendly to Taiwan is likely to depend on who will rule the island during his tenure. It's far from certain whether Taiwan's next president - to be elected in 2012 - will belong to the now-ruling KMT, or the now-opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which China has branded in hundreds of its hallmark tirades as "Taiwan independence separatists".

The DPP's official line is that if the party were to regain power, its China policies would be consistent with that of the relatively China-friendly KMT. But Taiwan's DPP-leaning media have long taken a position against any notion that Xi should be liked by the Taiwanese.

The media campaign pinpoints Xi's lack of academic credentials - he entered university without having finished high school - and his background as a privileged "princeling" as the offspring of a high-ranking party cadre. Xi's wife Peng has also been pilloried. Citing her love of the limelight, media reports suggest that after Xi's inauguration she will be a modern version of the hated Jiang Qing, Mao Zedong's domineering wife who became mastermind of the Cultural Revolution, the 1966 to 1976 social, political and economic upheaval.

For Professor Wong, how the winner of Taiwan's presidential elections will get along with Xi Jinping depends almost solely on that person. If the Taiwanese president leans toward independence, Xi will be tougher. If he or she looks for closer cooperation, Xi will be softer. The most likely scenario, however, is that China's stance stays exactly as it is. As Wong puts it, "Whoever has the say, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party} will keep on pressuring Taiwan to have political talks with the mainland as soon as possible."

Jens Kastner is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.

(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)


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