In mid-October, a few days after administrator Charles Bolden, head of the US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) returned from his lengthy
visit to China, NASA issued this brief statement:
On behalf of the NASA
delegation that traveled to China, I want to express my appreciation to the
China Manned Space Engineering Office, our hosts for my visit. Our delegation
conducted a very comprehensive visit to Chinese human spaceflight related
facilities including the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center and conducted meetings
with relevant senior officials in the Chinese government.
I am pleased that NASA was able to meet its objectives for the visit, which
included becoming acquainted with relevant Chinese space officials and
institutions, better understanding Chinese human spaceflight programs and
plans, and reaching a common understanding of the importance of transparency,
reciprocity and mutual benefit as the underlying principles of any future
interaction between our two nations in the area of human spaceflight.
Bolden had a meeting with his counterpart at the China National
Space Administration, and together they reviewed "the ongoing efforts of space
and Earth science working groups, established in 2007, to explore areas of
mutual interest".
"Although my visit did not include consideration of any specific proposals for
future cooperation, I believe that my delegation's visit to China increased
mutual understanding on the issue of human spaceflight and space exploration,
which can form the basis for further dialogue and cooperation in a manner that
is consistent with the national interests of both of our countries," said
Bolden.
During his presidential campaign, US President Barack Obama pledged that he
would improve relations in general between the US and China with respect to
outer space. Thus far anyway, this objective has not been achieved. Now that
Obama's opponents who reject the soundness of many of Obama's plans and
policies - and strongly distrust China as well - are poised to take control of
the US House of Representatives following the US elections on November 2, Obama
will find this objective even more difficult to accomplish.
In light of this space-related gridlock involving the US and China, Joan
Johnson-Freese, professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War
College in Rhode Island, labeled Bolden's trip as little more than a gesture.
"The good news is that Bolden went to China and the Obama administration is far
more open to working with China than the [George W] Bush administration was;
the bad news is that I do not think the US is any closer to substantively
working with China on space than it was during the Bush administration," said
Johnson-Freese.
"The problems are twofold: the entire US civil space program is still in an
upheaval since [the Constellation program] was canceled - a cancelation likely
inevitable due to the goals-resources mismatch - and there are still a large
number of legislators who do not want to work with China on much of anything.
So regardless of good intentions, the visit seemed more of a gesture than a
step forward."
At about the same time that Bolden's trip was getting underway, Bernard Foing,
a European Space Agency (ESA) scientist who serves as executive director of the
International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) told China's Global Times
that other countries are very eager to work with China. The ILEWG is promoting
inter-agency coordination, while informing - and even recruiting - commercial
firms and entrepreneurs about various space projects.
"There are a number of lunar lander projects with some elements of competition,
but also the possibility of coordination as part of a global ILEWG lunar
robotic village. This was endorsed in the recent Beijing Lunar Declaration in
June 2010," said Foing. "There is a strong interest in the international
community to follow up on this collaboration on future lunar and space
missions, such as on [China's] Chang'e-3 lander." [1]
The Beijing Lunar Declaration was approved by delegates from more than two
dozen countries who participated in the Global Lunar Conference which took
place in Beijing in mid-2010. Among other things, a proposal emerged calling
for the establishment of a panel under the ILEWG which would initiate a
"permanent International Space Exploration Governance Forum". [2]
At the Second International Conference on Space Exploration in Brussels in
mid-October, representatives from 24 European and eight other countries did
nothing to alter the message conveyed in the Beijing Lunar Declaration.
Whether Bolden was in China to ensure US support for the Beijing Lunar
Declaration or not, Gregory Kulacki, security analyst and China project manager
at the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists, described Bolden's
trip as poorly planned from the beginning.
"The first challenge Bolden faced, and failed to overcome, was NASA's own lack
of initiative and imagination regarding the itinerary for the visit. Bolden
failed to use the opportunity to promote a positive image of the US and the US
space program in China, particularly among the Chinese aerospace community,"
said Kulacki.
The absence of any outreach involving China's young space professionals
including public talks at Chinese colleges and universities about Bolden's
experiences as an astronaut in space was disappointing to Kulacki.
"This could have helped overcome what is becoming an increasingly tense and
highly politicized relationship in space between the two nations," said
Kulacki. "Unfortunately, this was an option his advance team explicitly
rejected in favor of low-key, behind-the-scenes visits to Chinese space
facilities."
Besides maintaining a very low profile, Bolden neglected to articulate Obama's
new space policy, particularly the renewed emphasis on international
cooperation, and he did not publicly call on the Chinese to join the US in
promoting the peaceful and sustainable use of space.
"It seems Bolden's only real goal was to get to see the Chinese facilities his
predecessor did not, and to satisfy, in the weakest possible terms, the very
general commitments to cooperation on space concluded in the joint statement
issued during President Obama's visit to China last November," said Kulacki.
Many conservatives and China hawks in the US Congress expressed their
dissatisfaction with Bolden's trip from the moment they learned about it on the
basis that they consider any US cooperation with China in space - especially
any joint manned spaceflight missions including Chinese taikonauts coming
aboard the International Space Station (ISS) - as unacceptable on the grounds
that these might prove to be too detrimental to the security of the US.
In fact, Bolden and other NASA personnel must be very careful about what they
say to Chinese space officials. Any discussion of specific projects involving
joint cooperation on human space flight activities in particular is tantamount
to a powder keg in Washington, DC. This delicate state of affairs has now taken
on added meaning given China's announcement in late October that its own manned
space station project has commenced with a possible completion date of 2020.
[3]
European and Russian space agencies, on the other hand, have reached out to
China, and support China's participation in the ISS.
"Early on, China appeared reluctant to participate in the ISS, instead favoring
its own space station. But it also appears that in the last few years, China
settled into a strategy of allowing greater dialogue on this matter with the
Europeans and the Russians who would then lobby Washington," said Richard
Fisher, senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based International Assessment and
Strategy Center. "This strategy also serves to create the illusion of a
'benefit' that could help undermine support for Tiananmen sanctions in both
Europe and the US."
Fisher is adamant as he constantly reminds readers that, "China’s manned space
program is controlled by the General Armaments Department of the People's
Liberation Army’s [PLA] Central Military Commission and is designed to produce
dual-use military benefits for the PLA. All seven of China’s unmanned and
manned Shenzhou missions from 1999 to 2008 performed military as well as civil
[and technology validation] missions."
That said, the White House has also informed Beijing constantly about its
discomfort over the lack of transparency surrounding the Chinese space program
- a theme that applies to other Chinese military activities as well.
"China will surely use whatever knowledge it gains from all interactions
surrounding its access to the ISS to improve or develop military space
capabilities it deems necessary," said Fisher. "Despite China’s decades of
diplomatic and propaganda activism to curtail the military-space initiatives of
other countries, the Chinese Communist Party and the PLA are apparently united
on China’s need for military-space capabilities." [4]
Keep in mind that China is doing its best to bolster its status as an emerging
space power by hosting international gatherings focused on all aspects of space
exploration, technology and research such as the above-mentioned Global Lunar
Conference.
For example, while Bolden was in China, a space debris mitigation workshop was
held in Beijing. This was organized by the Colorado-based Secure World
Foundation (SWF), Beihang University in Beijing, and the International Space
University in France. Previous conferences on the growing problem of debris in
orbit which poses a threat to spacecraft and the ISS were held in the US,
France, and Russia over the past year.
Topics addressed at this workshop included research into modeling and
simulation of hypervelocity impacts and the potential threat posed by the large
and growing numbers of small satellites in Sun-synchronous orbits relatively
close to Earth. Possible space debris removal techniques, and the legal and
policy issues surrounding this activity were also discussed.
Brian Weeden, SWF technical advisor and one of the meeting’s organizers
outlined the enormous scope and complexity of the problem.
"Satellites and space debris are like little embassies in space. Currently,
more than 50 countries own or operate satellites, and there are almost 22,000
pieces of debris being tracked in orbit," said Weeden. "Unfortunately, many of
the methods that work the best for removing debris also have applications for
anti-satellite weapons. Figuring out how to develop the necessary technologies
and perform debris removal in a way that doesn’t increase tensions between
countries is a major challenge." [5]
The establishment of a so-called "Group of Governmental Experts [GGE] on Space
Security" at the United Nations is seen as one viable way to balance all these
concerns in advance of implementing any comprehensive measures which will
effectively and rapidly lead to a reduction in the amount of space debris.
As the UN broadens and deepens its space role, US conservatives are not likely
to show much enthusiasm. With their growing clout in the US Congress,
UN-sponsored initiatives in space will encounter stiff resistance as hard
liners circle their wagons to fend off any attempts by the UN to tamper with US
space security issues.
In effect, Bolden's trip to China in October only contributed to the disarray
and disorder that surrounds the US space program which is suffering from
prolonged instability, and incoherency. Bolden may prefer the relative
tranquility he encounters abroad because back at home, he must cope with the
lingering crossfire that has erupted in the US space sector.
And the looming US mid-term elections do not appear now to bode well for anyone
who might call for a larger UN presence at the space table, or for anyone who
advocates that American astronauts and Chinese taikonauts bond together in
space.
"Unfortunately, military and political considerations continue to overshadow
the shared interests among US and Chinese space professionals in science and
exploration," said Kulacki who endorses the establishment of cooperative space
programs and activities that can build relationships between space
professionals. "In the end, it is those personal relationships that will lead
to greater understanding and, hopefully, a reduction of tensions."
These tensions are not likely to subside soon, and as a result, the US may find
itself between a rock and a hard place.
"If the upcoming election puts more people into congress who know nothing about
China, or space - and are largely inward looking and trying to hold back a
globalized world - then that will have a further negative impact on potentially
working with China in space or anywhere else," said Johnson-Freese. "Much of
the rest of the world - including Europe - is ready, even eager, to work with
China on programs like the ISS. The increasing danger is that the US will
become the outsider rather than the leader in international space programs."
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