SINOGRAPH Neighborly love running out
By Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - In the almost 60 years since the end of the Korean War in 1953, never
has the possibility of conflict on the peninsula seemed more likely.
In just a matter of days, North Korea boasted to the world of its new
uranium-enriching facilities and shelled a South Korean island, without any
clear reason. The South responded by changing its rules of engagement to allow
its troops to respond to Northern attacks with greater force, and it organized
strong military exercises with the US Navy off the North Korean coast.
China has reacted calmly. It invited all parties to keep their cool and sent
its top diplomat, state councilor Dai Bingguo, to South Korea to explain
Beijing's position and to offer to start a special
meeting of the stalled six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program. The
talks include North and South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and
Russia.
Reactions to this offer have been lukewarm. Few trust North Korea and believe
that if talks were to take place before any significant concessions from
Pyongyang, North Korea could take this as a victory of its strategy of
increasing provocations. Then many more painful blackmails would follow.
In all of this, China's eagerness to mend fences hides an important issue. More
than 200 North Korean shells fell on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong
while US special envoy Stephen Bosworth was traveling to Beijing to discuss
with China the conditions necessary for a return to the six-party talks.
The bombing of the South is therefore a policy statement toward China and the
US: "Do not expect to discuss our future without us." It also underlines the
menace from the North, with its 8,000 warheads pointed at the South, and
especially at the capital, Seoul, with its 10 million people.
But most of all, despite all official Beijing actions to cover up for North
Korea, the bombardment proves that Pyongyang does not trust Beijing. The
shelling has caused Beijing to lose face, since Chinese leaders have protected
Pyongyang for months since a North Korean torpedo was found by an international
investigation to have been responsible for the sinking of a South Korean
corvette with the loss of 46 lives in March. North Korea has consistently
denied responsibility.
Pyongyang has shown once again that it is unreliable and unpredictable,
illustrating the need for what the Americans have long called for - concrete
commitments from Pyongyang before any return to negotiations.
Its latest action is different from others in that previously North Korea could
claim it was reacting to provocation from the South, or culpability was
unclear, as with the corvette's sinking in March. This time, Pyongyang is
bragging about it.
In this situation, the shelling has undermined the status quo on the peninsula
that so far China has been trying to defend tooth and nail. As Pyongyang today
bombards the south without cause or reason, causing dozens of casualties,
tomorrow it could shoot or launch a missile at Tokyo.
Or it could decide to use its uranium and plutonium to build another atomic
bomb - if not a fully-fledged one, then at least a "dirty bomb" powerful enough
to cause death and destruction to its neighbors.
In light of the threat an unchecked North Korea poses, there are mounting calls
for its elimination - yet this would create many regional problems.
Who would pay for the enormous costs of reunification between North and South?
These could mount for many years, affecting the economy of much of the region.
What would the thousands of American troops now stationed in the South do in
the event of reunification? Return home or move toward the Chinese border?
Those soldiers are now also defending Japan from a possible Chinese threat,
covered by the fig leaf of North Korea. Without that fig leaf, if leaders
decided that China was officially a threat, then the Americans would
effectively be lined up against China.
Or if China is not deemed a threat to the US, Japan might want to think about
looking after its defense alone. This could case a new arms race in Asia.
These are some of the scenarios that Beijing fears because they open up
completely new possibilities in the political and economic geography of the
area. But perhaps Beijing feared them until yesterday, because if Pyongyang is
uncontrollable and there is no status quo to be preserved, then using the
arithmetic of costs and benefits, it may be worth eliminating the troublesome
neighbor.
Similarly, the Americans or the South Koreans may want to go to war with North
Korea regardless of the costs. They may reckon that at this point there is no
real way out and the cost of war tomorrow may be higher than today.
The recently anointed successor to Dear Leader Kim Jong-il, his son Jong-eun,
may want to prove his mettle, and thus strike a belligerent pose, and Pyongyang
could continue to develop atomic weapons and to improve its missile
capabilities. Again, it could be argued that the human and economic costs of
intervention against North Korea tomorrow would be greater than today.
Chinese President Hu Jintao is scheduled to visit Washington in mid-January,
with the goal of putting together the pieces of the bilateral relationship -
one that has suffered on many fronts over the past year. If Hu presents
Pyongyang's scalp to America, bilateral relations could take a turn for the
better.
Given the events of the past week, these scenarios are no longer fantasies.
In the coming days, if there is no resounding reverse from the North - which is
not impossible - those people in Beijing who are tired of their pesky neighbor
or those in Washington who are fed up with Pyongyang's unending blackmail might
get their way.
Perhaps, then, we are on the verge of a breakthrough over the fate of North
Korea and with it the entire status quo in Asia.
Francesco Sisci is the Asia Editor of La Stampa. His e-mail is
fsisci@gmail.com
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