PLA's fruitless moves on ex-Taiwan top brass
By Jens Kastner
TAIPEI - Beijing has no shortage of initiatives aimed at endearing the People's
Republic of China to the Taiwanese. One is inviting the island's retired
military brass to the mainland for an exchange of ideas and some merrymaking. A
bit of golfing, some chat about mutual military trust, and the opinion of quite
a few of the Taiwanese ex-general officers seems altered.
Back in Taiwan, the ex-generals are now promoting not only an end to
hostilities across the Taiwan Strait but also fancy undertakings like joint
defense of the East and South China Seas. However, it's not leading anywhere so
far. Few observers hold that the fraternization of high-ranking cross-strait
military retirees will
have a significant impact on Taiwan's political decision makers, let alone the
active-service military cadre.
After China's President Hu Jintao gave his green light in a 2008 speech,
cross-strait exchanges between retired general officers have become normal.
From May 2009 on, the annual China Reviews Cup golf tournament is held with
retired Chinese and Taiwanese generals swinging their clubs. In 2010 alone,
there were about 60 symposiums held in China which Taiwanese retired military
brass were invited to attend, and in December, 19 retired Taiwanese
intelligence officials had a field trip to the hometown of General Tai Li (Dai
Li), the legendary founding father of the historic Kuomintang's (KMT)
intelligence apparatus, in China's Zhejiang Province.
After having returned to Taiwan, some of the retirees, in interviews given to
local media, made a case for cross-strait reunification, military confidence
building measures and collaboration in gaining control over Pacific islands and
waters which sovereignty is disputed with Japan or Southeast Asian nations.
Unsurprisingly, this has alarmed some of the population. They fear Taiwan's
armed forces cannot possibly keep up the decades-old, clear-cut concept of the
enemy if its retired superiors are being wined and dined by the People's
Liberation Army (PLA). Others dread that military secrets could change hands at
the myriad of symposiums. There is also concern that countries in the region
and the US may see a united cross-strait approach to disputed waters as
disconcerting.
Nonetheless, Taiwanese authorities are not willing to put the brakes on these
exchanges.
"It's not the Ministry of Defense's (MND) responsibility to stop the
ex-generals from visiting China", stated Zhou Wei-kun, a MND press officer, in
an interview given to Asia Times Online. "Because they are retired, they are
civilians and are therefore free to go. But this doesn't mean that the MND is
considering military cooperation with the PLA [People's Liberation Army]."
Zhou acknowledged that there have been "a lot of such conferences" in China,
describing how one of the retired PLA brass made his way to the island.
"In late-April, a retired Chinese general-turned singer came to hold a concert.
But as this was about culture and not defense, the permission was given to him
by the Taiwanese government, not the MND."
Wang Jyh-perng is reserve captain of the Taiwan Navy and an associate research
fellow at the Association for Managing Defense and Strategies, one among a
handful of Taiwanese institutions that organize the retirees' cross-strait
trips. Since last year, Wang has been receiving invitations to participate in
seminars held in China related to peaceful developments in the Taiwan Strait.
In an interview, Wang expounded on what directions the discussions there took.
"No matter if they were Chinese civilian scholars or affiliated with the PLA,
all mentioned that China and Taiwan should take on East China Sea and South
China Sea sovereignty issues together, cooperating in protecting 'ancestral
rights'", said Wang.
However, according to Wang, it's not necessary to attach too much importance to
these exchanges because in his view, they do not significantly influence
policies.
The position of the Taiwanese government and some very active civic actions
groups that are pressing for cross-strait military cooperation are light-years
apart, said Wang. This is especially the case in sovereignty disputes
surrounding the Diayutai islands (called Senkaku in Japanese), which lie
northeast of Taiwan and west of Okinawa and are claimed by Tokyo, Taipei and
Beijing.
"As the Diaoyutai are very close to Taiwan, and China and Taiwan face the
US-Japanese security alliance there, the Taiwanese government will always be
extremely cautious on the issue, " he added. "If there is such a thing as
future cooperation in this regard, it would start at Taiping Island in the
South China Sea. This is because the islands are far away and because the
economic and military strength of the countries involved cannot match that of
China."
Taiping Island is claimed by Taiwan, China, the Philippines and Vietnam. It is
the largest of the Spratly Islands and the only one with a fresh-water supply.
In late-April, Taiwan's MND proposed providing the Taiwanese coast guard
stationed there with military-grade weaponry such as M41A3 Walker Bulldog light
tanks, 40mm automatic guns and 120 mortars.
However, Oliver Brauner of the China and Global Security Program at the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute holds that two years of
cross-strait exchanges between retired generals have brought Beijing hardly an
inch closer in its quest to establish cross-strait military cooperation.
Brauner says Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has been acting very carefully
with regard to any shared military issues so far.
"Should Ma be re-elected in 2012, military confidence building measures might
be put on the government agenda during his second term. But even then I do not
see any prospects for 'joint defense' as long as Beijing does not agree to drop
its military threat against Taiwan", Brauner says.
But even if such an unlikely scenario would eventually come play out, Brauner
thinks that it wouldn't overly worry the other claimants in the South and East
China Seas.
"They will continue to be primarily concerned about China's military
modernization and its territorial claims, which basically overlap with the
Taiwanese claims. Also, Taipei has stated time and again that it wants to see a
peaceful resolution of any territorial disputes related to its claims in the
South and East China Seas."
Steve Tsang of the University of Nottingham, and author of the authoritative If
China Attacks Taiwan: Military strategy, Politics and Economics, took
on the aspect that the retired Taiwanese generals could pass on military
secrets to the other side.
"The big question is how long after the Taiwanese general officers have retired
are they permitted to travel to the mainland to meet with Chinese
counterparts", Tsang told Asia Times Online. "If there is a decent interval the
risk for Taiwan's security is small, as the inside information they may have
will have become out of date. It is also a price democracies pay."
Retired military officers enjoy the usual rights of civilians, though national
security concerns should put certain restrictions on some post-retirement
activities, Tsang said. He viewed the exchanges as part of a Chinese "united
front" approach to soften Taiwan's resistance.
"Will it work? Only time will tell. But as a democracy, Taiwan should not get
overly concerned. Though there is no reason to doubt the loyalty and good sense
of its general officers, vigilance and good procedures are necessary to prevent
abuse", Tsang said. He concluded that "the issue is not if former Taiwanese
senior officers should be allowed to visit China but if proper procedures exist
and if they have been adhered to strictly".
Stopping Beijing from pulling Taiwan's military over to its side is the bulwark
of Taiwanese democracy, a fact indicated by numerous opinion polls which
intriguingly - even after two-and-half years of warming cross-strait ties -
somewhat stubbornly refuse to change.
According to the most recent survey on this matter, conducted in late-April,
66% of the respondents flatly opposed unification, 47% supported Taiwanese
independence while only 21% held it that unification was an idea worth
considering if it were to come along with very significant economic and
political cross-strait developments.
Most likely referring to this survey, Arthur Ding, a research fellow at the
China Politics Division at Taipei's National Chengchi University, told Asia
Times Online how he assesses the impact on Taiwan's defense of retired military
brass attending symposiums and golf tournaments together with the PLA in China.
"Beijing may try to 'divide and rule' the Taiwan military, but Beijing probably
will fail to achieve that goal, because current soldiers, reflecting the
average Taiwanese, do not identify with China," said Ding.
Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.
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