SINOGRAPH China syndrome and
Strauss-Kahn's fate By
Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - The fate of
Dominique Strauss-Kahn is sealed. The once almost
all-mighty International Monetary Fund (IMF)
director, projected to become the next president
of France and possibly also the most influential
European political leader, is no more.
A
New York chambermaid's accusations of sexual
assault have thrashed that trajectory and perhaps
changed the course of European and global history.
It seems like a science fiction story, in which a
writer like Isaac Asimov sends his protagonist
back in time to kill Adolf Hitler or Napoleon
Bonaparte before they took power.
It could
all be well and fine if a crucial aspect of
Western values, mindset and institutions had not
been sacrificed along with
Strauss-Kahn - the
presumption of innocence unless proven otherwise.
This is all the more important as 60% of the world
population - the people in Asia - is moving fast
to catch up with the Western economic world and
look up to Western values as a possible political
compass. Is the principle of presumption of
innocence still holding, or has it just been
trashed?
In fact, well ahead of
Strauss-Kahn's trial in court, the mudslide of a
scandal has engulfed him, forcing his resignation
from the IMF and possibly derailing his candidacy
in next year's French elections. Many papers argue
that his past and his history as a womanizer make
the accusations against him likely.
Yet,
in theory at least, there should be a great
difference between being a womanizer and a
possible rapist. Actually, there should be a
contradiction between the two. If you are a
womanizer, why should you go around raping women?
These are common-sense perplexities that feed the
conspiracy theories abounding around this case. It
was a set-up, the theories say, and Strauss-Kahn
was framed to prevent him from running for the
presidency.
The conspiracy theories live
because of the hopes and fears of what
Strauss-Kahn might have done as France's
president.
Presently, the process of
European political unity has stalled. There are
many causes for that, but the main reason is the
break in the special relationship between France
and Germany, a relationship that French historian
Michel Korinman in the 1990s called "Framania".
France took the political lead and Germany the
economic lead, and the two would de facto
coordinate between themselves on what would then
result in a united European political line. This
process has fallen apart over the past few years.
French President Nicholas Sarkozy broke
the mold of traditional French politics, which had
been keen on marking a distance between Paris and
Washington, despite the strong alliance. Sarkozy
aligned himself with the US administration, be it
that of George W Bush or Barack Obama. At the same
time, Germany loomed farther away in France's
priorities.
Meanwhile, Germany changed
too. The generation of leaders who were scared of
Germany's recent history - and thus over-sensitive
about any political initiative that was not agreed
on with Washington or Paris - gave way to the
first of a new brand of leader, Angela Merkel.
She came from a different upbringing, in
former Soviet satellite East Germany, and thus was
unhindered by the convulsions of conscience
assailing her former West German colleagues, who
were still steeped in the guilt for Germany's role
in two world wars. She was therefore less timid
than her predecessors in transforming Germany's
economic muscle into political leverage.
This was further enabled by the economic
crisis. Germany is the largest creditor of weaker
and financially unruly European countries, and its
economy is faring better than those of all other
European countries. Germany had the possibility
and responsibility to almost dictate the most
important terms for the European recovery,
unfettered by France, which was economically much
weaker and politically looking across the
Atlantic.
By themselves these deviating
tendencies could have broken Europe apart,
especially coupled with growing suspicions from
junior European members. Actually, while Germany
channeled a growing amount of credit to European
member states, this credit de facto also financed
the purchase of German goods, since Germany is by
far the largest exporter in Europe. This in turn
caused a drain of resources from Europe's weaker
countries to Germany, in a fashion similar to what
northern Italy has been doing to southern Italy
for decades [1].
This could sow a feeling
of being robbed by Germany if in a moment of need
Germany did not help failing countries like
Greece, Ireland or Portugal, but simply dropped
them. On the other hand, those countries really
messed up their public accounts, without any
German involvement, and German help should be
granted on the condition of greater responsibility
both locally in the failing countries and by
Germany at the European level.
In this
situation, Strauss-Kahn at the IMF played a
significant role in reining in German impulses and
coordinating a more pan-European economic
strategy, which had global implications since the
IMF actions de facto pushed Europe for greater
political unity. If he were to become France's
president, he could bank on this experience and
lead not only France but also Europe. He could
also rely on the US's trust, gained at the IMF and
before, that he would not turn the European Union
into an anti-American stronghold.
Without
him, this project is not impossible but certainly
less likely. History does not move in a straight
line, men and countries are taken by hubris, and
s... happens. Yet it is very important to dismiss
suspicions that there is any conspiracy in these
sexual abuse charges.
This is not simply a
domestic French issue; it is globally relevant. If
China, traditionally fond of conspiracy theories,
were to come to believe that Strauss-Kahn was put
away to eliminate a possible future political
scenario for Europe and the world, this could move
Beijing further away from the West. It is a
critical moment when at its 2012 Communist Party
Congress China will decide its strategic course
for the next 10 years.
Therefore, judgment
should be suspended until Strauss-Kahn is proven
guilty to cast away any conspiracy theories. If he
is innocent he should be allowed to choose to run
for president, even as a womanizer - that is not
against the law and not even against his wife's
knowledge. There have been many other womanizing
presidents. He won't be the first and won't be the
last, provided he has not broken the law.
Perhaps the court in New York should take
all this into consideration, strongly recommending
the public not to pass judgment on Strauss-Kahn
before the jury does. In this confusing moment,
perhaps only that judge in New York can remind
Westerners and the world that, yes, Strauss-Kahn
might have his faults, and these should be known
to his potential voters, but he is innocent until
proven guilty.
Note 1. I
am grateful for conversations with Paolo Savona
and Reinhard Buetikofer on this.
Francesco Sisci is a columnist
for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore and can be
reached at fsisci@gmail.com
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