Russia went to the Group of Eight (G-8)
summit meeting at Deauville last week as an
inveterate critic of the "unilateralist" Western
intervention in Libya, but came away from the
seaside French resort as a mediator between the
West and Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The
United States scored a big diplomatic victory in
getting Moscow to work for regime change in Libya.
No sooner than he got back to Moscow,
President Dmitry Medvedev ordered his special
envoy to Africa Mikhail Margelov to travel to
Libya "in the nearest time". Margelov is liked in
the West and by Libyan rebels. He admitted,
"Gaddafi's future is the 'most delicate topic'."
The Western version is that in the middle
of the G-8 summit, Medvedev suddenly declared that
"Gaddafi has forfeited
legitimacy" and Russia plans
to "help him go". But Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov insisted: "It wasn't a Russian
initiative. It was a request, an appeal from
President Sarkozy, from President [Barack] Obama,
from other participants."
The Kremlin is
obviously eager to inject a fresh lease of
bonhomie into Russia's "reset" with the US.
Medvedev's meeting with Obama at Deauville failed
to resolve the differences over deployment of
missile defense system in Europe. The Kremlin is
uneasy that the West is coolly ignoring Russian
protestations about the intervention in Libya and
a growing discord with the US is the last thing
Medvedev wants.
A credibility
problem However, Russia's u-turn displeases
China. Beijing feels that Moscow led it up the
garden path and left it alone. Russia virtually
dumped the "joint cooperation" project on the
Middle East and North Africa that Lavrov and his
Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi worked out at
their meeting in Moscow last month as a new
dimension to Sino-Russian strategic partnership.
A Moscow-datelined commentary by Xinhua
displays genuine irritation. It begins with a wry
remark that Russia "strikingly joined the Western
powers" in urging Gaddafi's exit. It adds,
"Experts and analysts believe Russia made the move
to protect its own interests in Libya and have a
stake in the country's future. Yet they remain
skeptical over whether Russia could help make a
difference in the Middle East country."
The commentary analyses that Russia was
all along fence-sitter wagering which side in the
Libyan internal conflict would ultimately prevail
and, therefore, it criticized both the West and
Gaddafi. But Moscow could lately see that the NATO
was determined to have Gaddafi ousted and that
realization "might have helped Russia make up its
mind" to tag along with the West. Xinhua said
there were weighty considerations behind this
opportunism:
Moreover, seeking to protect its
interests and stay relevant in the post-conflict
Libya is perhaps another key reason. Russia sees
Libya as an important partner in the region,
having poured billions of US dollars of
investment in Libya in sectors like oil
exploration, railway construction and arms
sales. Already, a chaotic Libya is crippling
Russia's investment there.
As NATO
[North Atlantic Treaty Organization] air raids
are gaining further momentum, it's only natural
for Russia to start considering its own role as
it cannot afford to stay out of the picture.
Additionally, some of the Western
nations' promises and offers at the G-8 summit
also prompted Russia to make the turn. At the
summit, the Western countries pledged to
facilitate Russia's entry into the World Trade
Organization by the end of this year while ahead
of the summit, France and Russia reached a deal
under which Paris would sell four Mistral-class
helicopter carriers to Moscow.
Xinhua
expressed doubt, however, whether Russia would
meet with success in its newfound role, since
"Moscow has limited influence in Libya ... [and]
Gaddafi's departure from power is still distant."
Significantly, The People's Daily featured
a separate article highlighting that China has all
along pursued a highly principled policy toward
the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
The implied comparison with Russia's unpredictable
course is obvious. The commentary underlined a
great consistency in China's Middle East policies
in regard of its observance of the "basic norms of
mutual respect and non-interference in each
other's internal affairs when it comes to
international relations ... Regarding the violent
conflicts in certain countries, China calls on all
related parties to settle differences through
dialogues and negotiations and to avoid violence".
The People's Daily explained:
China has forged an image of a
trustworthy and responsible country by adhering
to its principles and showing flexibility when
dealing with various problems according to the
actual situations in international forums such
as the United Nations. Based on the principles
of respecting national sovereignty and
non-interference in others' internal affairs,
China did not vote in favor of the UN Security
Council's resolution for establishing a no-fly
zone in Libya.
However, it did not cast
a dissenting vote either based on the purpose of
protecting civilians and the positions of
various parties, such as the League of Arab
States and the African Union ...
Meanwhile, China also opposed
interference in the internal affairs and the
sanctions approved by the UN Security Council
and by other international institutions, which
have made the problem more
complicated.
The article asserts that
"China's peaceful foreign policy has paid off" in
the Middle East. China seems to anticipate that
Russia's image would take a beating over Libya,
and seems to distance itself from negative
fallouts.
Obama is the winner A
credibility problem is bound to arise in the
Chinese mind. China has brought its position much
closer to Russia's over the developments in Middle
East, even suggesting it would block any
Western-sponsored moves against Damascus in the
United Nations Security Council. China will need
to rethink how it responds if the Libyan issue
comes up again in the United Nations Security
Council. There can be fallouts on other areas such
as the Afghan problem. At Deauville, Obama "gave
Russia", as Time magazine put it, a US$400 million
contract for the supply of helicopters to
Afghanistan.
The deal has been wrapped up
when hardly a fortnight remains for the summit
meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
at Astana, where Afghanistan tops the agenda. On
the other hand, a country acting in its
self-interests in any given situation - that is
not something that shocks Chinese sensitivities.
Besides, Libya is not a major template in the
Sino-Russian strategic partnership.
On
Thursday, it became clear that a major gas deal
between the two countries is going to be signed on
June 10. After holding talks with the visiting
Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Moscow,
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said,
"We are expecting that we will sign the range of
contracts during the visit of the Chinese
president to Russia."
Russia has in recent
years sought to align itself more closely with
China as it seeks to unlock new energy markets in
Asia. Thus, on final reckoning, Libya is a blip in
Beijing's ties with Moscow, compared to the
prospect of 70 billion cubic metes of Russian
natural gas sent to China annually.
What
counts, therefore, is not so much that China has
lost heavily due to Russia's change of course on
Libya as that Obama has gained significantly.
Medvedev's call for Gaddafi to go has more than
symbolic value for Obama.
The North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operation has
so far failed to remove Gaddafi from power and he
seems determined to dig in. The protracted
operation poses difficulties for the West
financially and politically and if Moscow could
persuade Gaddafi to throw in the towel, it will be
wonderful denouement for Obama. On the other hand,
if Russia fails in his "mediatory services", the
enterprise won't look as Obama's folly, either.
Second, Russia's hitherto angry reaction
to the NATO intervention in Libya blocked any
scope for the West to get a UN Security Council
mandate for regime change in Tripoli. Obama can
now expect smooth sailing for any move seeking UN
Security Council legitimacy for a successor regime
in Tripoli. A Russian veto can be ruled out.
Also, Russia's volte-face over Libya has
implications for Obama's strategy toward Syria,
Russia's remaining Middle Eastern ally. The US is
relentlessly seeking regime change in Syria and,
once again, Russia stands in the way. But, for how
long?
Russian rhetoric continues to be
strong on Syria. "Attempts to change the regime in
Syria by using force should be curbed," Lavrov
advised NATO on Thursday. But Damascus wouldn't be
easily convinced. And that works to the US's
advantage.
On a broader plane, the message
is going out that Obama's "reset" policy is slowly
but steadily turning Russia from being an
obstructionist power to a collaborator. Countries
raging from Iran to Ukraine and Kazakhstan to
Tajikistan - would take note. The Russian
turnaround on Libya shows that the US-Russia
discourse is becoming distinctly conciliatory.
Obama's policy of "selective cooperation"
toward Russia stands vindicated. Russia has given
excellent cooperation over Iran and Afghanistan -
and now on Libya. The "reset" seems a success
story for the Obama administration's foreign
policy - second only to the killing of Osama bin
Laden.
Ambassador M K
Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the
Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included
the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and
Turkey.
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