Taiwan's Project Diving Dragon
resurfaces By Jens Kastner
TAIPEI - Recurring reports that countries
other than the United States are helping Taiwan
build diesel-electric submarines domestically go
back a decade. According to various articles, it's
either the Western Europeans, Russians or Indians
who are clandestinely concocting a submarine plan
with the Taiwanese.
While the notion that
any country able to build subs would choose to so
profoundly snub China appears unlikely, the
question arises as to why these rumors persist.
An island and its mythical being Then-United States president George W Bush in
2001 approved the sale of eight conventional
submarines to Taiwan, but the deal has been in
limbo ever since. While the US ceased building
diesel-electric subs decades ago, the Western
European countries that do still produce them -
and are seen as having the
best technology for
diesel-electric sub construction - likely fear
reprisals from Beijing for supplying Taipei with
the technology.
In the 2000s, with
pro-independence Taiwanese president Chen
Shui-bian in power and the Taiwan Strait
constantly on the brink of war, a solution that
ostensibly suggested itself was that the Taiwanese
build their own subs.
While there have yet
to be credible signs that "Project Diving Dragon"
was ever alive and kicking, or any alternate
Taiwanese plan for submarines, rumors of its
existence refuse to die. Intriguingly, such rumors
have surfaced at even shorter intervals under
Chen's successor, Ma Ying-jeou, who says he
doesn't want an arms race with the military power
across the Taiwan Strait.
Leaps forward
- sudden and great In late 2010, it was
suggested that the Taiwanese navy had used a
Russia trip by a Taiwanese ship and arms builder,
the China Shipbuilding Corporation Taiwan, in late
2010 as cover for secret negotiations. Though
apparently seeking Russian expertise in building
ice-breaking ships, the genuine mission was
reportedly talks on building diesel submarines in
Taiwan.
According to another report in
May, Washington proposed and Taipei accepted a
deal for four subs instead of eight in order to
revive the decade-old deal made with the Bush
administration.
A few weeks later, the
Taiwan Navy was said to have test-fired indigenous
Hsiung Feng II (HF-2) ship-to-ship missiles from
one of its two old Dutch-built Hailung class subs,
suggesting the Taiwanese had made only two subs
fit for combat with a new, "beyond-vision strike
capability".
However, the most recent news
then broke in mid-December, with reports that
Taiwan was persuading European submarine building
experts to travel to the island to train Taiwanese
in the specialized type of welding used on
submarines, while naming India as an potential
alternative supplier of submarine technology.
Not so subtle inconsistencies
For the time being, only the story on the
HF-2 test-firings has been proven false.
The Hailungs, it turns out, still have
problems with just launching torpedoes from old
fire control systems and have "absolutely no
capability" of launching anti-ship missiles from
their torpedo tubes, a retired Taiwan Navy
engineer told Defense News.
Some of the
reports in question have rightly pointed out that
indigenously building diesel-electric subs isn't
child's play, warning that Taiwan could end up
with flawed and prohibitively expensive boats and
reminding that "Project Diving Dragon" never got
the official nod from the Ministry of Defense in
the first place.
Among the last weapons
Beijing wants to see under Taipei's command,
submarines are among the very few platforms that
deserve the term "game-changer". This is
particularly the case with Taiwan. If the island
ever had to defend itself against a Chinese
attack, diesel-electric subs could make a
difference by prolonging the conflict so that
things become dicey for Beijing.
Unlike
Taiwanese fighter jets, which would have a hard
time taking off or returning to base after Chinese
ballistic missiles destroyed runways during the
opening hours of conflict, submarines could hold
out for significantly longer. In waters east off
the island, they could - together with the
Taiwanese fleet of surface combatants - open a
corridor into the western Pacific for the US
Pacific Fleet. This would be enormously
detrimental to Beijing's interests as it lowers
potential US losses, easing a US president's
decision to order forces into the theater.
Taiwanese subs, if not built too large,
could also ensure that any Chinese attempt of a
large-scale amphibious landing incurred large
losses in the shallow Taiwan Strait near to the
coast. A bit farther flung but not entirely
unrealistic is the notion that Taiwanese subs
could block China's ports, taking aim at the
mainland's economy.
Chinese breath of
fire and brimstone In October, economists
Andreas Fuchs and Nils-Hendrik Klann at the
University of Goettingen in Germany published a
paper that gave a mild foretaste of what would be
in store for any country daring to assist. Fuchs
and Klann demonstrated that world leaders who have
defied Beijing by welcoming the exiled Tibetan
leader the Dalai Lama face an average 8.1% annual
loss of exports to China for up to two years.
Euro-zone countries that in theory could
play a role in Project Diving Dragon are not
likely in the mood for any such shenanigans, which
would likely irk China much more than any hosting
of the Tibetan religious leader. Resource-rich
Russia, which hopes to benefit from the stellar
economic growth of its resource-hungry neighbor,
is unlikely to consider anything of the sort.
This leaves only India. But Delhi does not
have an indigenous conventional submarine
construction capability. The Project 75A/76
program (the follow-on plan for six French
Scorpene class diesel-electric submarines
currently built in India) envisions help from
either Europe or Russia, according to John Pike,
director of the GlobalSecurity.org think-tank. By
transferring technologies to Taiwan, India would
risk jeopardizing a program deemed crucial in
keeping up with China's naval modernization.
Besides, as China sees all weapons sales
to Taiwan as "splittist", India can take it for
granted that China would support separatist
insurgencies in India in retaliation.
Political will in Taipei is also likely
lacking. Lai I-chung, a member of the research
body the Taiwan Thinktank, told Asia Times Online
that Ma and his ruling Kuomintang party (KMT) had
in the past decade opposed subs because they saw
them as offensive and overly expensive weapons
that would destabilize the situation across the
Taiwan Strait.
Lai said that from 2000 to
2008 - when the KMT was in the opposition but held
legislative majority - it blocked a special budget
for subs over 60 times.
"But this all of a
sudden changed in January 2011," Lai said. "In a
surprise statement, Ma named subs and new F-16s
[fighter jets] as Taiwan's two preferred weapon
systems for purchase. Nobody knows why he changed
his mind."
Tsai Ming-Yen, chairman of the
Graduate Institute of International Politics at
Taiwan's National Chung Hsing University,
suggested that the sub stories could have to do
with Ma wanting to calm public fears before he
starts political talks with China if he wins a
second term in the presidential elections to be
held on January 14, particularly over a peace
agreement he's pledged to seek with the mainland.
"By telling the public he can build subs
in Taiwan, Ma is reassuring them that the peace
agreement won't be detrimental to Taiwan's
security," Tsai said.
Gavin Greenwood, a
consultant with the Hong Kong-based security risk
management consultancy firm Allan &
Associates, has another take on Ma's u-tune. He
said that from Taiwan's perspective, routine
reminders to the US over undelivered arms packages
served ulterior purposes.
"It gives Taipei
some leverage on the more 'doable' deals -
upgrades of the F-16 fleet and Patriot systems and
delivery of the Blackhawk helicopters for example.
It also fends off domestic opponents by seeming to
strive for greater defenses against China with
little risk of actually having to acquire - and
pay - for the actual kit," Greenwood said.
Steve Tsang, director of the University of
Nottingham's China Policy Institute, said that
even if Project Diving Dragon and other such plans
don't exist, allowing rumors to gain credibility
is not too bad an option for the Taiwanese.
"If Taiwan should not develop an effective
submarine force but could get the only power that
will threaten its existence to divert a
significant part of its military budget to develop
an anti-submarine capability, it will mean less
being spent on items that can pose a real threat
to Taiwan's existence," Tsang said.
Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based
journalist.
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times
Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
