Taiwan vote may trip up US and
China By Jens Kastner
TAIPEI - In their presidential and
legislative elections to be held simultaneously on
January 14, the Taiwanese will either re-elect Ma
Ying-jeou of the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT)
or opt for a somewhat weighty change.
Presidential candidate and chairwoman of
the anti-unification Democratic Progressive
Party's (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen runs neck-and-neck with
the incumbent in opinion polls, while James Soong
of the People's First Party (PFP) trails far
behind.
Needless to say, Beijing is all
for Ma. But Washington is also keeping its fingers
crossed firmly for him because during his term,
Ma, much unlike his pro-independence predecessors
Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, didn't complicate
Sino-US relations in the slightest.
From
fears that China's military leaders could gain at
the expense
of civilian ones to Beijing's
supposed ability to keep North Korea from
launching missiles toward South Korea or Japan -
Washington isn't short of reasons for
cross-Taiwan-Strait relations and in turn Sino-US
ties to stay on an amicable and predictable
trajectory.
But a leadership change in
Taipei is seen by many as a potential spoiler.
Beijing is deeply suspicious of Tsai, who in the
mid-1990s constructed an infamous doctrine that
saw China and Taiwan's ties as a "special
state-to-state" relationship, bringing the Taiwan
Strait to the brink of war. The Chinese Communist
Party's (CCP) highest echelons have already said
that cross-Strait business would not go on as
usual if Taiwan's next leader doesn't recognize
that the island is part of China.
Beijing
wants to avoid repeating mistakes of the past.
Threats of war shortly before Taiwanese elections
have led to the exact opposite outcome Beijing had
wanted. This time around, the Chinese have
allegedly asked the Barack Obama administration,
privately, for help. It seems very much as if the
request was granted. Ma's domestic opponents see
conspiracies at work and listed supposed examples
for hidden US intervention in the island's
presidential election on Saturday to the benefit
of the easy-to-handle incumbent fearing for his
re-election.
In September, when Tsai visited the US, an
anonymous American official told the Financial
Times that Tsai failed to convince the Obama
administration that she would handle cross-Strait
relations well. The leak delivered a blow to
Tsai's domestic standing as it was suggested that
she lacks the ability to master the delicate and
crucial balance between US and China.
Washington allegedly has made efforts to
counter rampant rumors that affected Ma
negatively, such as speculation the Obama
administration wants to abandon the island to
serve US national interest better. Last year saw
more high-ranking US officials visit Taipei than
the past few years combined. Previously,
Washington had kept official visits to Taipei at a
minimum as they implied Taiwanese statehood and in
turn complicated Sino-US relations.
Weeks before the polls, the island was
nominated for inclusion in the US Visa Waiver
Program. This move, which just could have been
announced shortly after the elections for the sake
of fairness, is regarded as a major shot in Ma's
arm as US visa requirements for Taiwanese -
unfavorable compared to citizens of other
developed countries in the region - have long
gnawed at islanders' self-esteem.
Taiwan's National Security Council (NSC),
which advises the president on security issues, in
early January published a press release on a
briefing by the American Institute in Taiwan
(AIT), the US's de facto embassy, on the latest US
Defense Strategic Guidance. That the briefing took
place isn't unusual, but in the past details of
such talks were kept largely secret. That the AIT
didn't protest against the NSC making the whole
story public is seen as proof of a tactical
agreement between the two in order to strengthen
Ma.
Yet, despite the alleged US
interventions, with just days left before the
polls, no sound observer could confidently rule
out that the eventual prospect of Washington and
Beijing eventually facing a president Tsai.
To handle her pro-independence
predecessors, Washington crafted and brought to
perfection the "dual deterrence" tactic.
According to the concept, the US
encourages one side until it become too
self-confident while at the same time ignoring the
other, until it feels just about to be abandoned.
Then, the direction of US sympathy is abruptly
shifted. In this way an ambiguous balance has been
struck. Neither Beijing nor Taipei can be sure to
what extent the US would interfere in a conflict,
so the two avoid embarking on reckless adventures
in the first place.
According to political
scientists interviewed by Asia Times Online, the
policy of "dual deterrence" will remain in place
and has never been dropped - though since Ma took
office in 2008 it has been barely noticeable.
"The US policy will not change whoever
wins in Taiwan. It is in US national interest to
have this policy, as it is about avoiding a
cross-Strait confrontation becoming a conflict
involving the US and the People's Republic of
China," said Steve Tsang, director of the
University of Nottingham's China Policy Institute.
Also John F Copper, a Stanley J Buckman
professor of international studies at Rhodes
College in Memphis, Tennessee, holds that very
little if any change in US policy would occur if
Ma wins the election, and that a Tsai win also
wouldn't necessarily lead to dramatic turns and
twists.
"If Tsai wins, the US will issue
her a warning, perhaps more than one. The
Department of State will certainly remind her of
America's one-China policy, how unhappy the US was
with Chen Shui-bian, and furthermore that she
should expect a very negative reaction if she
pursues independence," Copper said.
Anyway, Tsai will almost certainly seek to
avoid turning US-Taiwan relations testy, according
to Copper, and he furthermore pointed out that
Tsai didn't mention the issue of Taiwanese
independence during her campaign but instead
repeatedly stated that she wants better relations
with China.
"I think she means it and
needs it. Taiwan's economy has slowed recently,
and Tsai would not want to oversee a sharp
downturn or recession as Chen Shui-bian
experienced after he was in office less than a
year [2000]. She no doubt realizes that she must
cooperate with the KMT in the Legislative Yuan
[Taiwan's legislature] and pursue policies that
will facilitate economic stability and growth."
As for China's leadership, it could take
some action in the form of economic pressure if
things run counter to its wishes on the island,
Copper said.
"China can do serious damage
to Taiwan economically, but I don't think it wants
to. It's unlikely that Chinese leaders see that as
wise or in China's national interest unless there
is a declaration of independence or markedly
increased Japanese influence [over Taiwan]. They
feel that time is on their side, and Tsai's win
wouldn't alter that."
Jens
Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.
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