China
weighs 'right side of history' in
Gulf By M K Bhadrakumar
Rebuff the United States' entreaties
regarding sanctions against Iran, then
nonchalantly cross the Sunni-Shi'ite divide in the
Persian Gulf while sidestepping the Arab Spring
altogether and vaguely greeting Islamism, and all
this as solo acts - Chinese diplomacy is on a roll
in the Middle East.
Premier Wen Jiabao's
current six-day visit to Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar is a display of masterly
diplomacy. China is probably
the only big power today among the permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council
that can claim a strong partnership with Syria and
Iran on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and Qatar on
the other.
China is managing this
political and diplomatic feat with the least
wastage of resources and eschewing any flamboyant
acts or rhetoric.
Practical and
ideological Yet China is incredibly active
in the region and is purposively expanding its
presence with the eye on the distant future.
Against the "grim political and economic
backdrop of the international landscape" today -
with the United States in decline and Europe in
crisis - China has a particularly useful window of
opportunity to present itself as the ideal partner
for the Middle East in the "common task of warding
off the negative impact of the global economic
malaise" so that the two sides can take "full
advantage of their respective strengths and
jointly strive for common development" - as Xinhua
news agency described the "great significance" of
Wen's regional tour.
The facts speak for
themselves. China bought a combined 1.15 million
barrels per day from the three Sunni-majority
countries on Wen's current itinerary. In the first
11 months of 2011, Saudi supplies to China stood
at 45.5 million tonnes of crude, showing an
increase of about 13% over the corresponding
period in 2010.
Qatar is a major supplier
of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China, and in
the first 11-month period in 2011 it shipped 1.8
million tonnes, an increase of 76%. Trade with the
UAE exceeds $36 billion and the sheikhdom is
emerging as a major trans-shipment point for
Chinese exports to Africa and Europe.
Chinese investments in Arab countries
amount to $15 billion and the economic
relationship is diversifying even as China has
begun robustly pushing its project exports. In
turn, the Persian Gulf is registering the highest
growth as investor in China.
But China is
also heavily buying oil from Iran. Around 22% of
its total imports are of Iranian oil. Trade with
Iran touched $30 billion in 2010 and is expected
to increase to $50 billion by 2015. China now
accounts for 10% of Iran's total imports and is
the country's main trading partner.
The
mutually agreed target for China's trade with Arab
countries by 2015 is $200 billion. By the end of
2011, however, it had already reached $190
billion.
Wen witnessed in Saudi Arabia the
signing of a contract between China Petrochemical
Corporation (Sinopec) and Saudi Aramco to build an
$8.5 billion refinery with 400,000 barrel-a-day
capacity in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast by 2014,
with the two sides holding 35.5%-62.5% stakes
respectively. A memorandum of understanding was
also signed between the Saudi petrochemical giant
SABIC and Sinopec to build a petrochemical plant
in Tianjin.
The two countries also signed
a nuclear cooperation agreement during Wen's
visit. Saudi Arabia plans to build 16 nuclear
power reactors by 2030 and China has ambitions to
emerge as an exporter of nuclear power plants.
Nonetheless, China is not only sticking to
its strong ties with Iran but in a string of
statements last week Beijing asserted the high
importance it attaches to the Sino-Iranian
relationship. It rebuffed demands by the United
States to curb Iran's oil revenues and rejected
out of hand the latest US sanctions against Iran
as overstepping.
Washington taunted
Beijing on Thursday by slamming sanctions on
Chinese firm Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp for allegedly
selling refined petroleum products to Iran. But
China voiced "strong dissatisfaction and firm
opposition" and expressed its intent to carry on
"normal cooperation with Iran in energy, the
economy and trade".
A factor of
stability Evidently, Washington's move was
symbolic and done in haste and some despair -
Zhuhai Zhenrong doesn't have any assets in the US
- while aimed at highlighting on the eve of Wen's
arrival in Riyadh the strong flavor of the
Beijing's relationship with Tehran, which is a
rival for regional influence with Riyadh.
The point is, the Saudis were supposedly
working at Washington's behest to strengthen ties
with China and wean Beijing away from Tehran's
embrace, but Riyadh and Beijing increasingly
struck up a "stand-alone" agenda of their own,
which can give space for either side's
relationship with Iran.
The proposed Yanbu
refinery will be in Saudi Arabia's
Shi'ite-dominated eastern province. Saudi Arabia
is greatly worried about the cascading unrest in
the eastern provinces (which it fears Tehran could
be fuelling) and yet China is investing in a big
joint venture there.
The tantalizing fact
is that the Saudis invited China to come in
despite its strong ties with Iran. Obviously, the
Saudis differentiate the Chinese already as a
factor of stability in the region.
Conceivably, China could even play a role
in a future scenario in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry.
At any rate, throughout his stay in Saudi Arabia,
Wen harped on the imperative of regional
stability. This must come as music to Saudi ears.
Interestingly, in a commentary on Sunday
devoted to Wen's tour of the Persian Gulf, the
government-owned China Daily said:
Unlike Western countries, which tend
to impose their own values and political systems
on others, China interacts with the Arab world
on the principle of equality, equity, mutual
respect and mutual benefit ... The US, more
often than not, tilts toward Israel in its
conflict with the Palestinians, infuriating many
in the Arab world. In contrast, China has always
supported the rightful demands of the
Palestinians.
China's stance has been
increasingly welcomed in the Arab world and many
Arab states have chosen to "Look East" for
cooperation and support to deal with regional
and world issues ... With the region undergoing
profound changes since the Arab Spring began
more than a year ago, regional stability will
figure high in Wen's talks.
A
'green' future Indeed, Wen told King
Abdullah that China respects Saudi Arabia's
political system, development mode and its culture
and traditions. In response, King Abdullah
proposed the setting up of a high-level committee
to supervise cooperation between the two countries
in the political, economic, cultural and security
fields. King Abdullah said meaningfully, "It is
the objective of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy to
maintain regional peace and stability."
The king added: "Saudi Arabia and China
enjoy a high level of mutual trust and share
similar views on many issues. The Saudi side
wishes to step up consultation and coordination
with China."
In sum, Wen's tour
underscores that China considers itself a
"stakeholder" in the Persian Gulf. What cannot
escape attention is also that China is coming to
terms with the ascendancy of political Islam in
the Middle East. A commentary in the People's
Daily last week concluded:
It [the Arab Spring] has changed the
main color of the Arab political situation and
formed a splendid "green" scene which worries or
even scares the West. In fact, that is not a
"backward" [retrogressive development] in the
Arab's modernization and secularization course,
but a retraction from the long-term excessive
secularization and secularization of the regimes
overthrown or a return to the traditional
culture. It is also the common aspiration of the
people ... Of course, the world should have a
wider and more comprehensive mind to give best
wishes to these countries. After all, it is the
Arab people's own choice.
The
inclusion of Qatar in Wen's tour itinerary brings
out an intriguing salient that reveals the
subtleties in the Chinese thinking. Admittedly,
Qatar is China's biggest source of LNG. But Qatar
played a big role in the regime change in Libya
and is allegedly bent on overthrowing the regime
of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
China opposes the Western intervention in
Libya and Syria. Yet, despite the Russia-China
coordination in the United Nations Security
Council over Libya and Syria, Beijing is hoping
for an expansion of the energy partnership with
Qatar.
This stands in sharp contrast with
Russia's ties with Qatar, which are in tatters
today - ever since the Russian ambassador was
manhandled a few weeks ago at Doha airport by the
local security in what appeared to be a deliberate
act of provocation or slight to Moscow. In sum,
China is hedging. It hopes to be on the "right
side of history" in the Persian Gulf.
Qatar would feel pleased by a People's
Daily commentary on Saturday, which gently mocked
the recent visit of the Russian aircraft carrier
Admiral Kuznetsov to the Syrian port of
Tartus.
The commentary debunked the
prevailing impression regarding Russian support to
Syria and insisted that, on the contrary, Russia
acts in any given situation not out of friendly
sentiments to another country but solely to
protect its own strategic interests; and, its
current "diplomatic posturing" over Syria
essentially aims at "warning various political
forces not to harm Russia's interests".
The commentary went on to visualize that
the Admiral Kuznetsov might have gained
practical experience when in future Russia might
need to evacuate its nationals in Syria and
"protect its assets". In sum, the commentary
(which appeared on the eve of Wen's tour) seemed
to imply that any Russian-Chinese coordination
over Syria is a limited one and both countries are
independently pursuing their own interests.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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