SINOGRAPH Ma's re-election rings
loudest on the mainland By
Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - The re-election
of President Ma Ying-jeou is important for Taiwan,
the island de facto independent but formally part
of one China, but the event is possibly even more
important for China and its future.
To
Beijing, Ma's victory is reason to celebrate: it
culminates many years of quiet diplomacy and
reaching out to the Kuomintang (KMT), the ruling
nationalist ruling party to which Ma belongs, that
started with KMT chairman Lian Chan's visit to
Xi'an in 2005.
Ma's victory almost
definitely stops what Beijing most feared - the
drift toward formal independence that began with Taiwan's
president Lee Teng-hui in
the late 1990s after talks with Beijing failed.
At the end of Ma's present mandate, ties
with mainland China will have become stronger and
more solid. Although it is possible that the two
sides may not move too close together, it would by
then be very difficult for Taiwan to again try to
distance itself - economically, but also
culturally - from Beijing. This is currently
Beijing's main goal concerning Taiwan.
China does not dream of a fast
reunification with the island as it would create
immense problems. What would the role of the KMT
be in China? Should there be total freedom of the
press in China, like in Taiwan? Should there be
free elections? Or should free elections be
abolished in Taiwan?
How can two political
systems be sustained in one country? Would
Taiwan's political leaders attend top Communist
Party meetings in Beijing? Would they be briefed
about top security information? And if not, what
kind of role would Taiwan's leaders have in a
reunified China? Et cetera. But Beijing does not
wish for Taiwan to declare formal independence, as
it could fuel "splittist" movements in parts of
China like Tibet or Xinjiang with large non-Han
populations, the majority ethnicity in China and
in Taiwan.
If Han-majority regions like
Taiwan can become independent, it seems more
likely that so could a region with a non-Han
majority. In a way, Ma's victory provided China
with a favorable political environment to cope
with its prickly security issues in restive
regions. This is a very important and concrete
domestic result for Beijing. On the other hand,
there are many broader critical lessons that can
be drawn from the Beijing's new Taiwan policy.
One immediately evident point is that
correct handling of "foreign policy" (in this
case, Taiwan) creates good political preconditions
to handle domestic issues (Tibet or Xinjiang in
this case), or vice versa, the mishandling of
foreign affairs can also stir up problems at home.
Another essential lesson is about methods.
After discussions between Beijing and Lee Teng-hui
in Taipei broke down in the 1990s, Beijing tried
for years to pressure and bully Taipei into
submission. The result was to scare Taiwan into
drifting away from its Chinese identity.
Things began to improve after Beijing
stopped its threats and became even better when it
made overtures to the island and simply ignored
all provocations coming from Taipei. In fact, the
bombastic threats in Beijing were mostly naive or
self-serving, as a group of nationalist
conservatives in Beijing blackmailed the
leadership, arguing that if you are weak with
Taiwan, you have given up on national unification
and don't deserve to rule.
Actually, the
result of the tough talk was just the opposite,
creating distance with Taiwan, whereas the result
of "weak" methods has resolved the Taiwan issue.
These results were long-term, but the
leadership had to withstand tough criticisms in
the meantime. Conservatives accused the leaders of
surrendering to the island. Now the current
success in Taiwan is a lesson that can be applied
all around in foreign policy. Beijing's
bullying or lack of attention in recent years -
its arrogance and tough talk - has created growing
concern around the world and has solved none of
its geopolitical problems while worsening a few.
However, Taiwan proves that a different approach
can bring many positive results in the long term,
once the leadership weathers some short-term
backlash.
In other words, the theories of
China's peaceful evolution and of creating a
community of interests have been vindicated and
could be applied more forcefully worldwide. The
hawks on China's foreign policy then should have
less room for maneuver. Things may not be that
straightforward, as domestic debate in China
hinges on many elements, but Ma's success can't be
easily dismissed.
One more element in this
picture is the role of the United States. Taiwan
is the most sensitive issue in China's foreign
policy and beyond its foreign policy. On this, the
US has been coherent and consistent in opposing
Beijing's bullying methods while aiding and
supporting Beijing's softer tactics.
Taiwan's current result would have been
impossible without the US firm opposition to
pro-independence former Taiwanese president Chen
Shui-bian's provocations and America's staunch
backing of the KMT policy toward China. This may
be a rock-solid base for future bilateral ties as
on Sunday the Chinese media reported that US
newspapers wrote "Ma Ying-jeou re-election fits
[fuhe] with American and Chinese
interests." [1]
Then Taiwan could be the
basis both for a refocusing of ties between the US
and China - besides the recent controversy over
the US new military focus on Asia - and a model
for ties between China and all other neighboring
countries.
This new US military presence
in Asia could be conceived as friendly and useful
to China. [2] How this can and will happen is an
open issue, but certainly now there is a great
opening.
The KMT is the US oldest
political partner in Asia. Ties between the US and
the KMT are about 80 years old, and went on for
all this time with much friction but without a
break. Then, for the CCP (Chinese Communist
Party), improving ties with the KMT will not
automatically translate into better ties with the
US, but these improvements with Taiwan may have
great impact in Washington if cleverly played.
The domestic impact is also relevant.
Although political reunification is not for
tomorrow or even the day after tomorrow, the
political questions of the reunification are on
the agenda and de facto pressing Beijing's own
political reforms schedule. In the long term, it
is very hard to think that political reunification
with Taiwan can be achieved by forfeiting free
elections on the island.
It is far more
likely that unified China will have free
elections, as many of China's 500 million Internet
users eagerly followed the vote in Taiwan. The
trend in China is not for less but for greater
freedom.
The road to all this in Beijing
can be bumpy and at times uncertain. The old hawks
will not totally vanish and new hawks on new
policies will pop up, but this could become part
of a freer political atmosphere in Beijing. In any
case, the current leadership has now gained
greater clout, which should play out in the next
party congress.
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