SINOGRAPH Wen signals something
new Francesco Sisci
After years of delay, crackdowns, and
failures, the time finally seems to have arrived
for political reform in China, and this coincides
with a major demotion in the leadership of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as on the 15th
controversial Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai was
replaced by Jiang Dejiang.
In his last
press conference as prime minister, Wen Jiabao
announced on March 14 to Chinese and foreign
journalists - and to the billion Chinese who
followed his remarks on TV - that without
political reform, the economy could face serious
problems. Thus he ideologically reversed the
previous order of things, which called for
economic reforms first and then, later or never,
political changes. Moreover, he hinted that
without political
changes even the present
economic welfare, buttressing the CCP's hold on
power, could be shaken.
We do not yet know
the timing and content of these reforms, but the
urgency with which the prime minister brought up
the issue points to a definite change in policy
emphasis, as the Chinese often only make
allusions, clues, and vague references. It was
raised in a manner that was at times dramatic, as
when he explained that without political reforms
China would likely to return to the serious
mistakes of the Cultural Revolution. This would be
a nightmare for the country, which considers that
decade, from 1966 to 1976, a period of
devastation.
The political reforms Wen
outlined would help to undo the negative legacies
of the Cultural Revolution, the "feudal past" (the
ancient imperial tradition), and the modern
phenomena of corruption and social inequality.
This last issue is crucial for the next
phase of China's development. The prime minister
said that in the near future, Beijing will propose
an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of
7.5%. This is a reduction in the goal for the
coming years - a period during which many
economists believed that China could not afford to
grow the GDP by less than 8% a year.
The
change in the target growth rate is due to various
factors. On the one hand, the government no longer
feels such an urgent need to create an avalanche
of jobs every year for people who migrate from
rural to urban areas. The migration flows,
although increasingly important, are decreasing
because life in the countryside is improving
significantly. Furthermore, the government wants
more balanced growth, with a focus on protecting
the environment, and also decreasing the disparity
in income distribution between rich and poor.
Beijing wants to expand the middle class.
Finally, there is the issue of political
stability. The government feels more confident,
and no longer thinks of having to "buy" consent by
accelerating growth to above 10% per year. Because
over 80% of the urban population own their homes,
and over 90% of rural people have been awarded a
parcel of land, the overwhelming share of the
Chinese population has an interest in not losing
what they have and in maintaining political
stability - so they do not believe in sudden
political changes.
It is also the
confidence about the lack of substantial internal
opposition that pushes the government to press on
with political reforms, "especially the reform of
the state and leaders of the party," to use Wen's
phrase.
This phrase is opaque, with only
the glimmer of a suggestion of political reform
for China. We do not know if this indicates the
choice, election, or simply better management of
the country's ruling class. Certainly, it is in
the government's best interests to continue in the
spirit of the reforms first put forward by Deng
Xiaoping. That means managing the changes and
keeping ahead with their flux and not simply
adapting to them.
Here Wen gave another
important sign when talking about foreign policy
but clearly referring to internal issues.
In the controversy surrounding Syria, Wen
skipped the issue on China vetoing the UN
intervention in the country, but argued that
Beijing respects the Syrian people's need for
change and have sympathy for their suffering. Most
importantly he stressed that, "the demand for
democracy of the Arab peoples must be respected
and answered. I also think that no power can
oppose this trend toward democracy."
If
that is true for the Arabs, it must be also true
for the Chinese - even if the how and the when
need to be clarified. Wen focused on the spread of
the democratic process. Today, many villages
(cun, the lowest administrative unit of
China) elect their leaders in democratic
elections. This process should extend upward, to
the levels of the county (xiang) and
district (xian; of which there are over
2,000 in China). Through these elections, the
Chinese are learning what democracy is.
Will these steps pave the concrete way of
political reform in China? Perhaps yes, or perhaps
not all. Certainly, it is another form of
political experimentation in China, as when the
metropolis of Chongqing fished out slogans and
chants of the Cultural Revolution - an experiment
that seems to be over.
Wen, while
admitting some success in Chongqing, said that
after Wang Lijun's attempted escape (the former
city police chief who fled to the US consulate in
Chengdu), city officials "need to reflect deeply
and learn well the lesson of the case of Wang
Lijun." In other words, China cannot go back in
history in any way. This is a very important
political statement marking the experience in
Chongqing, and de facto sealing Bo Xilai's destiny
even besides the episode of Wang Lijun's attempted
flight to the consulate. His was, as seems
apparent from Wen's statement, a deep political
error, and Bo's demotion marks a future political
direction, far away from the experience of the red
guards. This could have deep bearings for the
future leadership taking the helm in October. They
may be former red guards, but they are supposed to
have learnt that that history should not be
repeated in any way.
As for the future, we
will see in the coming months, with the approach
of the party congress in autumn, if at least some
of the lines of political reform will be clarified
or not. One more important step to follow is the
upcoming elections in Hong Kong. At the end of
this month the territory, for the first time in
its history, will choose its leader through a
democratic process. The candidates are three, all
approved by Beijing, the people of Hong Kong are
however free to choose between them by casting a
ballot. The future leader of the territory will
then have the support of both the people of Hong
Kong and the leaders of Beijing. Perhaps this is a
way Beijing could choose to follow in the future.
Francesco Sisci is a columnist
for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore and can be
reached at fsisci@gmail.com
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