SPEAKING
FREELY US: China's aggression written in
the stars By Radhakrishna Rao
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
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Media reports reveal
that there are growing concerns in the United
States over rapidly expanding Chinese space
capabilities that could help the communist giant
derive diplomatic and defense-related advantages,
which in turn could hurt the long-term national
security and geostrategic interests of the US.
A well-documented national security report
on revising US export controls on satellites by
the US State Department and Department of Defense
reflects the concern that "China's modernized
military and especially its space-related capabilities
could be put to use in
ways that increase China's ability to gain
diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its
favor and possibly against US national interests".
How can growing Chinese space prowess pose
a threat to US security interests? According to an
analysis by the Washington-based World Security
Institute, sophisticated space platforms being
operated by China could limit the extent of US
intervention in the event of China deciding to
annex Taiwan by force.
"Starting from
almost no live surveillance capability 10 years
ago, today China's PLA [People's Liberation Army]
has equaled the US ability to observe targets from
space for real time operations," said researchers
at the institute. Not surprisingly, the
predominant view in the US defense establishment
is that the PLA has built up capabilities aimed
not only at Taiwan but also to deter, delay or
outright deny possible US or allied intervention
in any cross-strait conflict.
What has
enabled China to spread its soft power in Third
World countries - much to the annoyance of the US?
According to analysts, China continues to
make available its space expertise to the
countries keen on entering the "satellite age"
through long-term soft loans and hassle-free
technical assistance and smooth technology
transfer .
The China Great Wall Industry
Corporation (CGWIC), set up in 1980 as a
commercial wing of the Chinese space program,
continues to provide commercial space services
including building and launching of satellites
along with the setting up of the ground receiving
stations to the customers around the world.
China has already built and launched
satellites for countries such as Pakistan,
Venezuela and Nigeria, in addition to providing
commercial launch service for Indonesia's domestic
satellite named Palapa. Further, it has signed
commercial satellite and ground systems export
contracts with Bolivia and Laos.
These
developments have a negative impact on the US, in
that China has successfully challenged the once
absolute US dominance over the global commercial
space enterprise. Secondly, it has helped boost
China's diplomatic clout across a large part of
the Third World, much to the disadvantage of the
US. In the ultimate analysis, Chinese forays in
space, in addition to reinforcing its
technological supremacy, have resulted in the
expansion of its soft power.
Equally
worrying to the US is the long-term Chinese plan
to outpace both the US and Russia and dominate the
final frontier. Chinese space dominance would also
imply that it would try to stay ahead in the race
for space weaponization.
China already
views space as a vital platform for boosting the
combat readiness of its armed forces. In
particular, the Chinese plan for realizing an
orbiting complex during this decade would help it
derive strategic advantage in the event of a war
involving space assets.
China, which has a
strong political ambition in space, stunned the
world by accomplishing an anti-satellite test in
early 2007. This involved the destruction of an
aging weather watch satellite in the intermediate
Earth orbit through the deployment of a
medium-range ballistic missile.
United
States think-tanks believe China is also active in
building weapons based on laser beams and directed
energy devices for use in space. Indeed, the
perception in US political and defense circles is
that China's anti-satellite program has
significant implications for anti-access/area
denial efforts against the US in Taiwan Strait
contingencies.
According to Karl
Bergquist, who heads China relations at the
European Space Agency (ESA), the immediate-term
focus of the Chinese space endeavor is on
exploitation of the Taingong-1 laboratory orbited
last year to pave the way for building a larger
space station, development of a new heavy lift-off
launcher, establishment of the Beidou satellite
navigation system and a well-planned drive to
build a high-resolution satellite data capacity
that could contribute to Chinese defense build-up
in a significant manner.
As part of its
vision to position itself as a global space
supremo, China is now building an ultra-modern
launch complex at Wenchang on Hainan island that
happens to be the epicenter of its massive naval
build up. This happens to be the first coastal
launch station of China. All the three currently
operational Chinese launch complexes are
landlocked.
Meanwhile, China's human space
exploration program is poised for a surge with the
Shenzhou-9 mission slated for launch by means of a
Long March space vehicle sometime during this
year. This mission will see three crew members
accomplishing a manual docking before boarding
Tiangong-1, living there for an unspecified period
to carry out scientific experiments.
Indeed, this Chinese space mission will be
keenly observed by China watchers who expect a
significant push in China's manned space program,
which is controlled and managed by the defense
establishment.
Radhakrishna Rao
is a full time aerosapce and defense writer with
three decades of experience in contributing
stories in areas of his professional interest to a
wide ranging global media.
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2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights
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Speaking
Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
guest writers to have their say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
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