As throngs of emotional
protesters take to the streets of Manila to decry
Beijing's policy and actions in its ongoing
maritime dispute with the Philippines, passions
are also running high in China.
Both China
and the Philippines claim the Scarborough Shoal
(called Huangyan Island in Chinese) as an integral
part of their respective nations. China and the
Philippines and dispatched warships to the area,
and nationalistic sentiment and rhetoric have been
escalating into military threats.
A recent
editorial in the Global Times (a sister daily
published by the People's Daily - the Chinese
Communist Party's flagship newspaper), entitled
"Peace will be a miracle if provocation lasts", is
a fairly representative example of the
contemporary Chinese
viewpoint:
For China, the standoff over
Huangyan Island is a matter of sovereignty. And
now Manila needs to be defeated in this area.
Otherwise, harassment from Philippine ships will
never end if they think it won't cost anything
to humiliate China just to unite its people.
The situation has come to a stage where
China has to ensure a victory, even if it means
it may cost more than imagined. The lasting
crisis will come at the expense of China's
unity. [1]
This passage is an
excellent summary of China's perspective of the
dispute. According to the governments of both the
People's Republic of China (PRC) and the
Taiwan-based Republic of China (ROC), Huangyan
Island is an integral part of Chinese territory.
China views Filipino claims to the island and
related military activity as a threat to Chinese
sovereignty and territorial cohesion. The
struggle for national unity is a central theme in
the Chinese worldview, especially because of
China's painful history with foreign powers. The
dispute over the Scarborough Shoal is seen as a
threat to China's integral territory. China's
government and people are extremely sensitive to
this perceived menace. For, China has territorial
disputes at South China Sea with other Southeast
Asian countries and at East China Sea with Japan,
Beijing fears that if it "gives up an inch then it
would lose a yard."
And the narrative of
the Scarborough Shoal dispute as a threat to
China's integrity and security is by no means a
viewpoint emanating solely from the higher
echelons of government and the media. Indeed, many
common Chinese people are inclined to take a
harder line on the dispute than their government
itself. I recently asked a Chinese friend about
the ongoing dispute, and he, who declined to be
identified, told me "Everyone wants to go to war
with the Philippines. They say the government is
being too weak." I asked him why a dispute over a
small island has taken on such significance. He
said, "Chinese people care much about face, and
the Philippines is a small country."
Many
Chinese people believe their country is not being
treated with due respect as a fast growing
regional and global power, and they are willing to
risk war to prove both their new military prowess
and their longstanding determination to preserve
Chinese sovereignty. Indeed, it seems that the
Chinese street is taking a harder line than their
government.
Interestingly, the Chinese
also view Filipino claims to the area and the
confrontation with China as a political exercise
meant to unite the Filipino people and distract
from domestic issues.
Enter the
Eagle The United States has a clear
interest in this conflict. It is the stated
objective of the Obama administration to "lock in"
US dominance of the Asia-Pacific. The US and the
Philippines have extensive diplomatic, cultural,
and military ties. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, in a recent trip to Manila, displayed
implicit US backing for the Philippines'
territorial claims by referring to the South China
Sea as the "West Philippines Sea". [2]
US
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta used the dispute to
push for the American Senate to ratify the United
Nations Law of the Sea. This move would open up
the way for greater US Navy patrols in South China
Sea. At a recent Senate hearing, Panetta expressed
warnings of increasing "gunboat diplomacy" by
rival claimants to disputed maritime areas.
Furthermore, the US is sending its top-of-the-line
Littoral Combat Ships into the region. [3]
The use of the phrase "gunboat diplomacy"
to refer to Chinese actions will probably not sit
well with the Chinese public. The Chinese consider
the Huangyan Island part of Chinese territory,
therefore they do not view their reaction to the
current dispute as an exercise in aggressive
military display or adventurism Furthermore the
Chinese nation suffered extensively from the
classic gunboat diplomacy of Western powers. The
US sending advanced naval forces into the area
thousands of miles from America's shores while
decrying "gunboat diplomacy" is likely to further
stir up nationalist sentiment in China.
The bottom line Despite the
rising tensions in the South China Sea, military
conflict seems still far from inevitable. The
Chinese government and the Philippines have
recently resumed diplomatic contact in the Chinese
embassy in Manila. (The Philippines had cut off
official dialogue in late April). A face-saving
solution may yet be available for both sides.
Significantly, the Chinese media have
focused on the ongoing dispute's negative impact
on the Philippines' economy. As the Chinese
embassy in Manila warns of "massive anti-Chinese
protests" and advises its citizens to stay
indoors, Chinese travel agencies are canceling
trips to the Philippines and reimbursing prepaid
expenses. Filipino fruit exports to China are
coming under increased scrutiny.
As an
editorial in China Daily points out:
It is obvious that a decline in the
number of Chinese tourists traveling to the
Philippines will have a negative effect on the
country's tourism industry as China is among its
top four sources of incoming international
tourists. But this is only the tip of an iceberg
in the overall interaction between the two
countries. In2011, bilateral trade set a
historical record to reach $30 billion. Beijing
is Manila's third largest trading partner.
Against such a rosy picture, the Philippine's
GDP growth rate slipped to 3.7 percent in
2011,compared to 7.6 percent in 2010, and the
government is facing a great deal of pressure
from the public to improve the domestic
situation.
Economic power, rather
than military might, is the backbone of China's
foreign policy. The Chinese government is aware
that any military conflict between China and the
Philippines will have serious repercussions for
China's international image. The Chinese
leadership has gone to some length to reassure
neighboring countries of its plans for a "Peaceful
Rise." The soft power of mutual economic
self-interest may be more effective than military
coercion as a bargaining tool with other nations.
Even as the rhetoric escalates, moves are
being made for economic integration and
mutual-benefit. Manuel Pangilinan, one of the
wealthiest Filipino captains of industry and the
chair of Philex Mining Corporation, has called for
joint development of a large deposit of natural
gas with the China National Offshore Oil
Corporation within the disputed South China Sea.
[4] Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei
reacted positively, saying: "Beijing is willing to
talk with Manila about the joint development, and
the key is that the Philippine side should be
sincere..." [5]
A continued paradigm of
confrontation is not the only possible outcome to
the ongoing crisis. Bilateral territorial disputes
may be a zero-sum game, but economic development
is not. Mutually beneficial, face-saving measures
can be taken by both sides to exploit the
resources of the South China Sea while avoiding a
confrontation that no one will win. Indeed, as my
Chinese friend told me: "The people are angry, but
the government leaders know war will have no
benefit."
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