China
and Russia flex muscle at the
West By Brendan O'Reilly
Beijing and Moscow will send a clear
message to the world at the ongoing Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The
leaderships of China and Russia have drawn two
lines in the sand - an unequivocal "No" to bombing
Iran, and another unambiguous "No" to regime
change in Syria brought about through a Western
bombing campaign.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing yesterday to
start his first overseas visit after he was
elected as the Russian leader again, which
highlights the importance he attaches to his
country's relations with China. And in Beijing, no
less, he is scheduled to hold talks with his
Iranian counterpart, Mahmud Ahmadinejad. This is
indicative of the joint Russian and Chinese
geopolitical strategy.
Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman Liu Wenmin spelled out the
shared Russian and
Chinese viewpoint on the ongoing crisis in Syria:
"On the Syrian issue, China and
Russia have stayed in close communication and
coordination both in New York, Moscow and
Beijing ... The position of both sides is clear
to all - there should be an immediate end to
violence and the political dialogue process
should be launched as soon as
possible".
Besides lauding
Sino-Russian cooperation on the issue, Liu
explicitly made clear the two nations' consistent
objection to the use of force to resolve the
Syrian issue: "China and Russia share the same
position on these points and both sides oppose
external intervention into the Syrian situation
and oppose regime change by force." [1]
The gauntlet has been thrown down. China
and Russia will not authorize the use of force
against the Syrian government in the United
Nations Security Council.
Furthermore,
Beijing and Moscow are playing defense against
perceived Western militarism and aggression. In
order to understand their shared interests and
methods on the global stage, it is useful to
examine the origins of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization itself.
The SCO grew out of
the "Shanghai Five", a block of nations formed in
1996 that included China, Russia, and the newly
independent states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and
Kyrgyzstan. The initial goal of this group was to
relax border tensions between the member states.
In June 2001, it was expanded to include
Uzbekistan, and was renamed the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization. The central aims of the
new grouping were to combat the so-called "Three
Evils" of terrorism, separatism, and extremism.
The focus on the "Three Evils" is
suggestive of the fundamentally conservative
nature of Russian and Chinese strategy. Russia and
China contain large tracts of land inhabited by
occasionally restless ethnic minorities. Russia,
China, and the "-stans" all face internal
challenges to their rule from political Islamists.
The essential mission of the SCO is therefore a
perpetuation of the political status quo in
Central Asia.
From these rather humble
beginnings, the SCO has become a quasi-military
and political alliance. Beginning in 2003, member
states have held joint military exercises, called
"Peace Missions". Under the auspices of the SCO,
China and Russia held their first ever joint
military exercises in 2005. The latest and the
largest of these "Peace Missions" saw over 5,000
Russian, Chinese, Kyrgyz, Tajik, and Kazak
soldiers take part in joint drills within
Kazakhstan.
Mongolia, India, Pakistan and
Iran are, for the time being, "observers" in the
SCO. Iran formally requested admission as a full
member in 2008, but its membership has been
postponed due to ongoing UN sanctions against
Iran. Belarus and Sri Lanka have signed on as
"dialogue partners."
There have been
worries in the United States and Western Europe
that the SCO may be developing into a nascent
anti-Western alliance. Although such a development
has been denied by the SCO's member states, there
are signs that such a coalition may be forming.
However, such an alliance would not be aggressive
in nature. The member states of the SCO cooperate
with one another, in no small part, in order to
prevent effective Western pressure for changes in
domestic policies and leadership.
The
two heavyweights Russia and China are
obviously the most significant constituent states
of the SCO. These countries, despite a long
history of mutual distrust and conflict, have a
common interest in resisting American hegemony.
Russia feels threatened by the continued
eastern expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). The former Soviet states of
eastern Europe are viewed as Russia's sphere of
influence. Russia is particularly concerned about
the potential NATO expansion into Ukraine and
Georgia. This expansion, if enacted, would require
the United States and its European allies to go to
war with Russia in the event of an outbreak of
military hostilities between Russia and these
neighboring states.
Meanwhile, China is
concerned about the US pivot towards Asia.
Continued arms sales to Taiwan and support for the
Philippines in the ongoing standoff in the South
China Sea are particular areas of concern.
Both Russia and China feel threatened by
the continued development and deployment of
anti-missile technology by the United States.
These two powers, particularly Russia, fear that
this defensive system is aimed at challenging
their strategic influence with regards to the
doctrine of Mutually-Assured Destruction. American
claims that this technology is aimed at alleged
"rouge states" such as Iran, have been met with
skepticism.
Besides these strategic
concerns, both leaderships are wary of what they
perceive as ongoing attempts by the United States
to interfere in the domestic politics of the their
two nations.
Middle Eastern
affairs Ahmadinejad's scheduled appearance
at the SCO summit comes at a crucial time. The
ongoing standoff over Iran's nuclear program, and
the resulting regional tensions and fears, are
matters of grave concern to the Russian and
Chinese leadership.
The recent round of
talks in Baghdad between Iran and the "Five Plus
One" group (the five permanent members of the
Security Council plus Germany) resulted in little
more than an agreement to schedule another meeting
in Moscow later this month. The sticking point of
negotiations is the continued insistence of the
Western powers for Iran to halt the enrichment of
uranium to over 20%, and Iran's refusal to do so.
The benchmark price for Brent crude has
shot up 18% over the past year, largely on
speculative fears of a bombing campaign against
Iran and Iran's capabilities for regional
retaliation. [2] China is heavily dependent on
imported oil, and the Chinese economy suffers when
the oil price increases. In the event of an
Israeli and/or American strike on Iran, and a
subsequent Iranian blockade of the Strait of
Hormuz, the price of oil will increase
dramatically. China's impressive economic growth
over the last three decades may come to a sudden
halt, with unpredictable social and political
consequences.
Russia's objections to
military intervention in Iran are primarily
strategic, but also contain an economic dimension.
Iran is a bridge between South Asia, the Persian
Gulf, and Central Asia. Iran borders the former
Soviet states of Turkmenistan, Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Any attack on Iran will have
unpredictable consequences in an area Russia views
at its sphere of influence.
The Russian
government has been adamant in its opposition to
any military action against Iran. Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, recently
reiterated these warnings. Besides predicting a
"negative effect for the security of many
countries" in the event of an attack on Iran, he
said there would be, "dire consequences for the
global economy due to unavoidable increase of
prices for hydrocarbons, which will slow exit from
recession". [3]
China and Russia share
political and economic reasons to object to a
potential attack on Iran. As usual, their shared
motives are essentially conservative - both
nations want to avoid geopolitical and economic
hazards.
Cooperation against what is
perceived as Western adventurism in the Middle
East extends beyond Iran to Syria. As permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council,
both Russia and China have vetoed recent proposed
resolutions targeting the Syrian government.
China and Russia fear a Syrian repeat of
the Western bombing campaign against Muammar
Gaddafi's regime in Libya. The security council's
Resolution 1973 was passed to establish a no-fly
zone over Libya, ostensibly to protect the
civilian population. Russia and China jointly
abstained from the vote, thereby ensuring its
success. Two days later a coalition of Arab Gulf
states and NATO used the resolution as an opening
to begin an aerial campaign with the ultimate goal
of enacting regime change in Libya.
China
and Russia are keen to avoid a duplication of the
Libyan scenario in Syria, and have therefore
blocked two security council resolutions calling
for sanctions against the Syrian government.
Neither country will allow any opening for the
West to launch military operations in Syria.
Russia wants to maintain its strategic interests
in Syria, particularly its sole Mediterranean port
facility at Tartus. China fears a spread of
sectarian violence from Syria into regional
countries, and a resulting increase in the price
of oil. Furthermore, both nations want to curtail
the practice of Western-led "regime change" for
ideological and geopolitical reasons.
It's the sovereignty,
stupid China's ambassador to the United
Nations, Li Baodong, defined the Chinese
government's view towards the Syrian conflict on
Monday, saying, "We [do] not have intention to
protect anybody against anybody. ... What we
really want to see is that the sovereignty of that
country can be safeguarded, and the destiny of
that country can be in the hands of the people in
Syria." [4]
Li effectively summarized the
geostrategic worldview and resulting policies of
Russia, China, and the SCO. The sovereignty of
each individual country is sacrosanct. It does not
matter exactly who is ruling a nation, so long as
a government is not imposed from the outside.
This is a clear challenge to the foreign
policy of the United States and its Western
allies. From Afghanistan and Iraq, to Libya, the
US has used its military might to enact regime
change against regional rivals. These
interventions have been justified in terms of
"human rights", "fighting terrorism", and
"stopping the spread of Weapons of Mass
Destruction". However, China and Russia believe
these campaigns were launched in order to advance
America's perceived geopolitical interests.
The Sino-Russian alliance, as exemplified
by the SCO, is essential a defensive, conservative
posture. China and Russia will not tolerate
further Western encroachment into the
strategically sensitive regions of Western and
Central Asia. They will use their growing economic
and political clout to block Western attempts at
regime change in Syria, Iran, and any other
country where China and Russia have geopolitical
interests.
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