US,
China threaten Southeast Asian
peace By Brendan O'Reilly
The Chinese government is taking a dual
approach to consolidating its territorial claims
in the South China Sea. A recent softening of the
country's diplomatic line amid a simultaneous
deployment of military assets reveals a nuanced
carrot-and-stick approach.
Meanwhile, the
ties that bind the Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN) have become dangerously frayed.
China's rising power and Washington's tacit aim of
forming an anti-China alliance in the region may
exacerbate longstanding rivalries to the general
detriment of Asian stability.
The
announcement by the Chinese military of plans to
station a permanent military presence in the South
China Sea has raised
the stakes. China's
Central Military Commission (CMC) on Sunday
approved the deployment of a division-level
military garrison to "Sansha City".
The
jurisdiction of "Sansha", officially incorporated
last month, covers the entirety of China's claims
in the South China Sea. The administrative center
of the city is on Woody Island - one of the
Chinese-controlled Paracel Islands - in the north
of the contested maritime region. Furthermore, a
mayor was elected to perform political duties for
area's roughly 1,000-strong semi-permanent Chinese
residents. [1]
This strengthening of an
assertive military and political stance came amid
a significant softening of China's diplomatic tone
on the regional dispute. The Chinese Foreign
Ministry was quick to express approval of a recent
ASEAN six-point statement on the South China Sea.
A glowing report from the semi-official China
Daily stated that ASEAN's six point proposal "goes
in line with China's ever-lasting will of turning
the disputed waters into a sea of peace,
friendship and cooperation". [2] More tellingly,
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei expressed
approval of the document, and is "open to
consultations with the ASEAN on the conclusion of
a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea".
China has previously attempted to resolve
its disputes with other claimants in the South
China Sea on a purely bilateral basis, knowing
full well it has massive leverage over its smaller
neighbors. For the Foreign Ministry to rapidly
assent to addressing the issue in a communal ASEAN
context reveals an important shift in diplomatic
strategy. The fact that this relaxing of the
diplomatic tract came simultaneously with
increased military deployment is indicative of
China's dual strategy. China can neither afford to
appear weak, nor to appear as an aggressive
regional hegemon.
The substance of the
six-point agreement itself is far from radical.
ASEAN agreed to "fully implement" and support the
guidelines the Declaration on the Conduct of
parties in the South China Sea (DOC), conclude a
regional code of conduct, respect relevant
international law such as the 1982 UN Convention
on the Law of the Sea, continue with the use of
non-military methods, and find a peaceful
resolution of the conflict. [3] The DOC is a
decade-old agreement between China and ASEAN that
seeks to resolve territorial disagreements in the
South China Sea peacefully, and maintain freedom
of navigation in the area. With the new six-point
plan, the relevant parties have essentially
assented to a continuation of the status quo,
while eschewing military conflict, and working on
long-term mechanisms for resolving the conflict.
Far more interesting than the six-point
agreement itself is the diplomatic clash that
preceded it. The recent ASEAN Foreign Minister
meeting in Cambodia was the first summit in
ASEAN's existence in which the bloc failed to
issue a joint communique. Cambodian Foreign
Minister Hor Namhong blamed "two countries" -
almost certainly Vietnam and the Philippines - for
the failure to reach an agreement. Cambodia had
resisted Filipino and Vietnamese calls to address
the recent escalation of tensions in the South
China Sea in a joint statement. Namhong stressed
that the bloc "does not stand up against China,
but negotiates with China based on the DOC". [4]
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty
Natalegawa was able to salvage the six-point
statement from this diplomatic wreckage. [5]
Natalegawa employed some serious "shuttle
diplomacy" in order to hammer out a somewhat
watered-down agreement a few days after the
official meeting. Indonesia's status as the
largest ASEAN member, and the country's friendly
relationship with both China and the United
States, undoubtedly helped the formation of a
compromise.
The recent ASEAN impasse
represents a potentially ominous turn in regional
geopolitics. Current territorial disputes in the
South China Sea are several decades old, but the
meteoritic rise of China and the ongoing
exploration of energy resources in the area are
raising tensions to a dangerous level. Add to
these issues the US "pivot" towards Asia, and
there exists a noxious brew of geopolitical
ambition, a scramble for energy, and old-fashioned
nationalism.
Despite public assurances to
the contrary, US overtures towards the Philippines
and Vietnam, and the planned deployment of 60% of
the US fleet in Asia, are aimed to a large degree
at containing Chinese power. China's complaints of
a lingering "Cold War" mindset in Washington have
a basis in reality. What Washington had not
expected was for its nascent anti-Chinese alliance
to provoke a regional backlash.
Historic
conflict and nationalistic rivalries between
Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and to a
lesser extent Malaysia and Indonesia, have existed
for many hundreds of years. These tensions have
largely subsided in recent decades, but old fires
could be rekindled in the event of the US and
China forming rival alliances. This unfortunate
dynamic is already in play to some degree. For
example, US backing for Vietnam drives the
historically Vietnamese-wary Cambodians into
China's open arms. America simply cannot count on
uniting a diverse ASEAN against China solely on
behalf of two member states.
Southeast
Asia's people have suffered tremendously over
three decades of futile and bloody war in the last
century. It is in no nation's interest - be it an
ASEAN member, or China and the United States, for
maritime disputes to threaten the region's
impressive economic growth and social development.
China's commitment to develop a legal
mechanism for resolving the various South China
Sea disputes in an ASEAN context is a hopeful
sign. The deployment of troops in the region is in
all likelihood primarily aimed at defending
domestic pride rather than expansionist ambitions.
It seems extremely unlikely that any claimant in
the South China Sea will attack a rival's military
forces, especially while a legally binding
agreement is in the works.
Rising tensions
in the South China Sea are significant, less for
the territorial disagreements themselves than for
the geopolitical changes they exacerbate. China
must advance its interests while avoiding a
scenario where China scares its neighbors into an
anti-Chinese alliance. Above all, China does not
want to appear as an expansionist power and
thereby frighten smaller nations into welcoming
the US as a counterbalance to China's power.
The US must tread carefully while looking
for regional leverage over China. US preeminence
has dominated the globe for over six decades, but
the unipolar world order is coming to an end.
Either side in a superpower conflict can exploit
historic and nationalist rivalries for its own
purposes. China's economic influence over
America's Asian allies is increasing
exponentially, and the Middle Kingdom's cultural
and historical ties with its neighbors are
deep-rooted. If regional states are forced to take
sides in a Sino-American Cold War, the US may be
the one given a cold shoulder.
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