Island feuds challenge US' Asian
ties By Brendan O’Reilly
The last few days have seen several major
developments affecting the relationships of the
most important regional powers in East Asia.
Thousands of protestors took to the streets of
major Chinese cities on Sunday, chanting slogans
and smashing Japanese-made cars to protest Japan’s
claims to contested islands in the East China Sea.
On August 10, South Korean President Lee
Myung-Bak made a very public visit to the
Korean-controlled, Japanese-claimed Dokdo
(Takeshima) islands, also known as the Liancourt
Rocks, sparking a diplomatic crisis with Japan.
Then a group of Chinese nationalists landed on the
Japanese-controlled Senkaku ("Diaoyu" in Chinese)
islands, and were promptly arrested by Japanese
forces. This Chinese landing was followed by a
Japanese civilian
expedition a few days
later, which inspired the massive street protests
on the Chinese mainland.
Longstanding
nationalistic and geopolitical undercurrents are
bubbling to the surface in the East China Sea.
These populist forces will affect the strategic
environment in the area. It is at this crucial
juncture that the US based Center of Strategic and
International Studies released a report warning of
"a time of drift" in the US-Japanese alliance.
The Center of Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS) is a think-tank comprised of
high-ranking former US policymakers. Its
recommendations are highly influential, having
been used in the past as part of the basis of US
government policy. Their report, entitled, "The
US-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia",
co-authored by former deputy secretary of state
Richard Armitage, called for Japan to take a much
more proactive role in Asia.
The paper
encouraged a loosening of Japan's constitutional
prohibition on "collective self-defense", and
pointed out the "irony" of the US-imposed Japanese
constitution preventing Japan from taking a more
militarily assertive role alongside the US in
Asia. More specifically, the report called for
Japan to increase surveillance capabilities in the
disputed South China Sea and prepare to send
minesweepers to the Persian Gulf. [1]
The
main motivation for the US to push for a more
active Japanese security role in the region is to
counter China's rise. The CSIS report did make
mention of North Korea, but the "challenges" posed
by China's increasing clout were a central theme
of the paper. As the US pivots towards Asia, Japan
is seen as a strong and indispensable ally.
However, enhancing the projection of US
power into Asia with an increasingly militarized
Japanese alliance poses serious risks. Foremost,
the tragic history of Japanese imperialism and
ongoing disputes over the portrayal of Japan's
imperial war crimes in the Japanese education
system and political arena cause incredible
friction between Japan and America's other East
Asian allies.
The CSIS report on US-Japan
relations specifically called for a tripartite
alliance between the US, Japan, and South Korea
aimed at containing North Korea and limiting
China's ambitions:
"Washington, Tokyo, and
Seoul should pool their diplomatic capital to
jointly deter North Korean pursuit of nuclear
weapons and help shape a regional environment best
suited to respond to China's rise". [2]
In
order to accomplish this end, the CSIS encouraged
the Japanese government "to confront the
historical issues that continue to complicate
relations" with South Korea.
Herein lies
the fundamental flaw in America's reliance on an
assertive Japan for America's strategic pivot
towards Asia. The Japanese nationalists who would
be eager to assume a proactive regional stance are
the very same political actors who are loath to
face the unpleasant facts of Japan's colonial
history (much less apologize for them).
Additionally, any moves to promote an
active stance by Japan's military will cause a
nationalist backlash in countries throughout the
region. In East Asia, historical nationalism can
trump geopolitics, and the wounds of the past run
deep.
As concerned as South Korea,
Vietnam, and the Philippines may be by China's new
assertiveness, these countries by no means would
openly welcome a forceful Japanese stance in the
region. The ongoing stand-off between South Korea
and Japan over the Liancourt Rocks puts the United
States in the awkward position of having its two
most important regional allies face off against
each other.
Open American backing for
Tokyo to expand its military role in the region
could completely alienate the younger generation
South Korean nationalists, many of whom already
bristle at the ongoing US military presence in the
Korean Peninsula.
The US simply can't
reliably be a strategic partner to the people and
governments of South Korea, the Philippines, and
Vietnam while pushing for what will be seen as
Japanese neo-militarism. The Chinese government
will be sure to take advantage of regional
anti-Japanese sentiment in the event of an
American-backed Japanese projection of power.
Furthermore, no single issue can inspire
Chinese nationalism like perceived Japanese
aggression. The landing of several Chinese
activists on the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands
last week caused a stir of emotions in China. The
protestors received a hero's welcome in Hong Kong
after they were arrested and deported by the
Japanese government.
Even more tellingly,
after Japanese activists reached the disputed
islands on Sunday, spontaneous and emotional
protests erupted in several major Chinese cities
within hours. Anger was vented against Japanese
automobiles, restaurants, and retail outlets.
Protestors in Shanghai denounced "Japanese
imperialism". [3]
Nothing could inspire a
lasting sense of distrust, anger, and
anti-American sentiment in China faster than US
backing for a more assertive Japan.
Finally, US pressure to increase Japan's
overseas ambitions may cause sharp divisions in
Japan itself. Fissures between pacifists and
nationalists are emerging from Japan's ongoing
economic and political deadlock. Tokyo's
nationalist Mayor Shintaro Ishihara, who touched
off the current round of the East China Sea
dispute with an offer in April to "buy" the
disputed islands, condemned the Japanese
government for releasing the Chinese maritime
activists, saying "It is a distinct criminal case
... We can't call Japan a real law-governed
country if it sends them back as mere illegal
aliens." [4]
At the same time, reports are
emerging that Japan's ambassador to China, who
warned of a "grave crisis" between the two nations
over the dispute, is to be replaced because of
government anger over his conciliatory line.
The CSIS's warnings of a "time of drift"
in US-Japan relations is indicative of the major
shifts in regional power. South Korea and Japan
may be strategically wary of China's rise, but the
major political forces in these two nations are by
no means eager to jump into a united anti-China
bandwagon.
South Korean President Lee must
have been well aware of Japan's deepening maritime
dispute with China when he purposefully upped
tensions with Japan himself by visiting the Dokdo
Islands. For the time being, there is a de
facto joint South Korean - Chinese effort to
put pressure on Japan's territorial claims.
Additionally, both South Korea and Japan
have a deeper trade relationship with China than
either country does with the United States. It is
perhaps largely for this reason that the CSIS
warns of a "drift" between the US and Japan -
while the US seeks to deputize the Japanese
government into keeping China is check, Japan is
tugged by economic realities beyond any
government's control into China's orbit.
A
final lesson to take away from the ongoing
maritime disputes between Japan and her neighbors
is that a more democratic China will in all
likelihood be a more aggressive China. It is
important to note that the protest boat sent to
"defend the Diaoyu Islands" was sent from Hong
Kong, not mainland China. If political reform in
the Middle Kingdom eventually leads to China
becoming more democratic, then Chinese politicians
will need to be quickly responsive to populist,
nationalist voices.
China's current
leadership can play the long game and wait for
China's economic situation to continue improving.
However, the temptation to project China's
increasing power may prove too great for a
democratic government to resist if a crisis
emerged.
The democratically elected
leaders of Japan and South Korea currently engage
in nationalist posturing in order to get votes,
and neither of these countries has the manpower,
money, and worldwide ambitions of the world's most
populous country.
What is more,
nationalist political maneuvers are usually based
on old historical animosities. The West and
concerned regional powers should take careful
note: if and when China's political system becomes
more democratic, expect it to be even more
regionally assertive.
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