TAIPEI - In its recently publicized
official foreign-policy platform, the US
Republican Party, which fields former
Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as its
presidential candidate, mentions at length Taiwan,
traditionally by far the most prominent pawn in
the US-China relationship, while the Democrats
trying to secure President Barack Obama's second
term handle the island much like an afterthought.
But although at first glance it seems a
future Republican administration would take a more
confrontational attitude toward Beijing, offering
more bargaining chips to Taipei in cross-strait
horse-trading, neither of Taiwan's two main
political parties is necessarily keeping its
fingers crossed for Romney.
At the
Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North
Carolina, last week the
party published its foreign-policy platform, which
in the last paragraph of the chapter on the
Asia-Pacific region resorts to the Obama
administration's usual phraseology when it comes
to Taiwan. In the whole document, the word
"Taiwan" is mentioned only twice: "We remain
committed to a 'one China' policy, the Taiwan
Relations Act and the peaceful resolution of
cross-strait issues that is consistent with the
wishes and best interests of the people of
Taiwan."
In the Republican platform, which
was published earlier to boost Romney's chances,
the island is mentioned nine times, by contrast,
if the term "Taiwanese" is also counted. As well,
the tone aimed at Beijing made very clear on which
side the party stands. Strong wording was used
such as "America and Taiwan are united", "a loyal
friend of America" and "the US ... will help
Taiwan defend itself".
To make matters
still more punchy, an aide of Romney in an
interview with Taiwan's staunchly pro-independence
daily The Liberty Times later made it clear that
if his man wins, the new F-16 fighter jets Taipei
has been requesting for years but are being held
back by the Obama administration will be released.
A source from within the US defense industry has
even told Asia Times Online that "a US president
Romney would sell Taipei almost any weapon system
it would ask for".
To all appearances,
such an outcome would make Taipei a head taller
when confronting Beijing at the negotiation table.
In other words, Beijing would have to dig much
deeper into its pockets to make the Taiwanese
accept talks on forming a political union.
Nonetheless, experts differ on who would
be a better US president for Taiwan.
"It
is tempting for some in Taiwan to think that a
Romney presidency would take a more robust
position toward Beijing and would therefore
benefit Taiwan. It may do so. Or, it may not,"
said Steve Tsang, director of the University of
Nottingham's China Policy Institute in England. He
emphasized that many US presidential candidates of
the past few decades used strong rhetoric toward
Beijing and changed their policy toward the
People's Republic of China (PRC) after taking
office.
Tsang obviously had in mind Ronald
Reagan, who in his 1980 presidential campaign
strongly argued for the sale of XF fighter jets to
Taipei and furthermore wanted to give Taiwanese
diplomats official access to the US government,
but after his election not only failed to deliver
on either pledge but in 1982 even signed the
infamous "August 17 communique", in which he
promised Deng Xiaoping gradually to decrease the
sale of arms to Taiwan.
"Is there really
any powerful reason to think Romney would be
different?" Tsang asked rhetorically. "The
relationship between the USA and the PRC is such
an important one that there is not that much room
for maneuver."
But John Copper, a
professor of international studies at Rhodes
College in Memphis, Tennessee, clearly sees
advantages for Taiwan if Romney replaces Obama.
"The Republicans and Romney specifically
advocate a stronger US military; Taiwan's
sovereignty hinges on the US [policy] to defend
and protect Taiwan," he said. "The Democrats and
President Obama have been less supportive of the
US military and a strong defense."
Copper
elaborated that the "Asia pivot" that has recently
become the Obama administration's policy is hollow
at present, and that putting 2,500 marines in
Australia was meaningless in dealing with China's
rise.
Also, according to Copper, Democrats
and Obama identify more with Europe than Asia,
seeing the latter as conservative and capitalist
and more like Republicans. "Taiwan fits this
mold," he said.
It is hardly a secret that
the Obama administration went to great lengths to
secure the re-election of Ma Ying-jeou of the
Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) so as not to
complicate Sino-US relations in Taiwan's last
presidential and legislative elections in January.
According to numerous commentators, Washington
endorsed Ma in a timely manner via a sudden spike
in visits by high-ranking US officials to Taipei
and the island's listing as a candidate for the
United States' visa-waiver program, among other
measures.
Not surprisingly, the opposition
Democratic Progressive Party has felt wronged,
which became plainly obvious when, after the polls
were over, its candidate Tsai Ing-wen refused to
meet with US officials visiting Taiwan. It was
widely alleged that the DPP sought to get even
with Obama by its vociferous opposition to Ma's
plan to open Taiwan to the import of US beef laced
with the lean-meat enhancer ractopamine, and there
has been no sign since that the DPP and the Obama
administration have gotten on better terms.
But according to Copper, the desire for
revenge will not go so far that the DPP prays for
a Romney win.
"The pro-DPP friends I have
spoken to know that the Obama administration
supported Ma and the KMT in the last election, but
they do not say much about this," he said. "They
identify with Obama as a liberal who favors the
same things the DPP stands for: helping the poor,
economic equality, socialist policies, and so
forth."
According to Tsang, when pondering
on who might be best for Taiwan, it is important
to take into consideration that the old patterns
of thought in cross-strait relations no longer
apply, as Taiwan's game is no longer one of
confronting Beijing.
"The old paradigm of
independence versus unification has passed its
sell-by date."
The real game now, he said,
whether Taiwan is governed by a KMT or a DPP
administration, is how to maintain a good working
relationship with Beijing so that both sides
benefit from the economic complementarities
without the dignity of Taiwan and its citizens
being unduly compromised.
"To succeed in
this new game, Taiwan does not need the US to have
an administration articulating a willingness to
confront Beijing," Tsang said. "What Taiwan needs
is a US administration that is willing to consider
what Taiwan really needs for its security and be
willing to stand by Taiwan as required."
Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based
journalist.
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