China's security boss surveys Hindu
Kush By M K Bhadrakumar
For such a high-level exchange after such
a pronounced gap of nearly half a century, Beijing
actually said very little indeed about the
unannounced four-hour visit to Kabul on Saturday
by Zhou Yongkang, the ninth ranking member of the
Politburo and China's security boss - although it
pointedly took note that the "last [such] visit
was made by late Chinese leader Liu Shaoqi in 1966
when he was the President of China".
Zhou's senior status make Beijing's
reticence seem all the more curious, particularly
as the Hindu Kush and the adjoining Pamirs and the
Central Asian steppes are nowadays teeming with
the "foreign devils on the Silk Road".
An
air of suspense hangs around Zhou's visit,
especially since his itinerary originally didn't
include the stop-over in Kabul. He was to
have proceeded to
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, following a two-day visit
to Singapore, but diverted to Kabul for a
four-hour halt. The detour, of course, makes the
visit at once historical and topical.
The
context of the visit needs to be carefully
surveyed. From a long-term perspective, a joint
declaration between China and Afghanistan on "the
establishment of a strategic and cooperative
partnership" issued in Beijing after a visit by
Afghan President Hamid Karzai in June marked a new
step in the development of the bilateral
relations. The declaration identified security as
one of the "five pillars that will underpin" the
Sino-Afghan partnership and affirmed that the two
countries would "intensify exchanges and
cooperation" in security, including "enhancing
intelligence exchanges".
No 'Apocalypse
Now' … With the "transition" in
Afghanistan set to shift up a gear through 2013 -
as the last residues of the United States' "surge"
are pulled back from the war theater and as the
2014 deadline approaches for the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) to withdraw - Beijing
seems destined to play a larger role. In terms of
China's national priorities over the development
of its eastern regions, especially Xinjiang, and
the consolidation of its rapidly expanding
economic investments in Afghanistan and Central
Asia, Beijing has no choice but to project itself
as a stakeholder in the stabilization of
Afghanistan. In a brief commentary on Zhou's visit
to Kabul, Global Times newspaper noted:
Within China, there is also heated
debate over the role that China should play …
But it is generally agreed that the
deterioration of the Afghan domestic situation
will benefit nobody; for China, the stability of
its northwestern bordering regions will be
directly influenced and overseas Chinese in the
region will face greater security problems.
Historically, Afghanistan has been a
nightmare for many big powers. As a neighbor of
Afghanistan, China has a keen interest in the
security of this region. How to help Afghanistan
walk out of the shadow of long-term wartime
chaos poses a big challenge to China's
diplomacy.
Zhou underlined in a
written statement as he arrived in Kabul, "It is
in line with the fundamental interests of the two
peoples for China and Afghanistan to strengthen a
strategic and cooperative partnership, which is
also conducive to regional peace, stability and
development."
Clearly, the accent was on
the bilateral cooperation with the assurance held
out to any third parties concerned that
Sino-Afghan cooperation would be a factor of
stability for the region.
How does China
view the Afghan situation? The last major
statement on Afghanistan by China was made hardly
a week before Zhou's visit to Kabul on Sunday,
during the United Nations Security Council
discussion in New York on Afghanistan. The
striking aspect of the speech by Ambassador Li
Baodong was its underlying tone of hope and
positive expectations.
Li said, "The peace
and reconstruction process in Afghanistan was
achieving positive results, the transfer of
security responsibilities to national forces was
moving along smoothly, the Afghan economy was
improving, and trade and cooperation with other
countries was being scaled up."
However,
Li indirectly criticized NATO's strategy in
flagging that the transfer of security
responsibilities must proceed slowly and saying
the international community must continue to help
to improve the security situation. Indeed, he put
on record China's serious concerns over recent
incidents of violence, especially the high number
of civilian casualties, and he called on NATO
forces to conduct its operations according to
international law so as to ensure the safety and
protection of civilians.
The most
interesting part of Li's speech was in
articulating China's belief that Afghanistan's
stabilization needs to be sought through greater
integration with the region "in line with the
principle of mutual benefit and cooperation" and
by "making full use of existing mechanisms" such
as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Evidently, Beijing doesn't subscribe to
the inevitability of "Apocalypse Now" in the Hindu
Kush in the post-2014 period. Suffice to say,
Zhou's visit to Kabul needs to be weighed first
and foremost as a strong affirmation of support
for Karzai's government. From Beijing's viewpoint,
Karzai has been a reliable friend who walked the
extra mile to boost Sino-Afghan relations.
… nor any zero-sum game From
Karzai's perspective, support from Beijing may
already have become irreplaceable, more so at the
present juncture when his equations with
Washington have again become problematic and
uncertain. NATO has summarily suspended the
training for the Afghan police force and the
Afghan defense ministry has apparently scaled back
NATO's involvement in joint operations with the
Afghan forces below battalion level.
There
have been several instances in the recent weeks
indicative of the poor chemistry between Kabul and
Washington. The most glaring instance was the
concern voiced by Karzai about the security pacts
signed with the US earlier this year. Negotiations
over the long-term US military presence in
Afghanistan beyond 2014 are due to commence in
three weeks time. At such a juncture, Zhou's
visit, coming as it did on the eve of Karzai's
trip to the US, most certainly helps the Afghan
leader gain more negotiating space vis-a-vis
Washington.
Karzai feels particularly
agitated over the excessive interest that the US
takes in influencing Afghan domestic politics,
which is entering a delicate phase even as
jockeying has begun in right earnest over the
Afghan presidential elections due in end-2014.
Karzai told Zhou, "China is a good and honest
friend of Afghanistan … We are looking forward to
a broader and strong cooperation with China."
Zhou reciprocated that the Chinese
government fully respects the right of the Afghan
people to choose their own path of development and
will actively participate in Afghanistan's
reconstruction.
Zhou signed three
agreements on increased security and economic
cooperation, including a Memorandum of
Understanding on an "action plan" for the
implementation of the joint declaration of June 8,
an agreement with the Afghan finance ministry on a
US$150 million aid package, and a deal with the
Afghan Interior Ministry to "train, fund and equip
Afghan police".
The Global Times said the
security agreement aims to "protect the security
of China's own projects" in Afghanistan. The
state-owned China Metallurgical Group operates the
$3 billion Aynak copper mine in the eastern Logar
province in Afghanistan, which has been targeted
by insurgent groups.
The three agreements
as such didn't warrant a high-level visit, whose
main purport seems to have been political. Zhou's
visit has most probably sealed an institutional
framework of intelligence liaison connecting
Beijing and Kabul in real time. Needless to say,
this matters a great deal for China. It is
following India's example to tap into the
excellent "database" of the Afghan intelligence,
which has every reason, historically speaking, to
be well clued in on a 24x7 basis on the militant
groups operating out of Pakistan.
Without
doubt, Karzai has signaled on his part Kabul's
political priorities also in the post-2014 period.
China's close relationship with Pakistan makes it
a valuable ally for Kabul in its despairing
efforts to moderate Islamabad's policies. The US
used to perform such a role before, but today
Washington is barely coping with its own woes
involving Pakistan.
However, as a Russian
commentary put it, "Hamid Karzai will have to take
some pains in order to put up a good show for his
Chinese partners. After all, the Americans are not
going to surrender their positions to the
Chinese."
This appears a motivated
opinion. On the other hand, the big question is
whether what is unfolding could be regarded as a
zero-sum game at all - notwithstanding the entire
panorama of the US' "rebalancing" in the
Asia-Pacific and Beijing's wariness over it.
Arguably, when it comes to the stabilization of
Afghanistan, China and the US are still on the
same side - and persuading Pakistan to cooperate
in the search of a durable settlement will also
remain a common objective for the two big powers.
The speeches made by Russian Ambassador
Vitaly Churkin and by Chinese UN Ambassador Li
Baodong at the UN Security Council last Monday
present a study in contrast. Russia is incessantly
taunting the US over the futility of the latter's
Afghan strategy, poking fun at it, rubbishing it
while constantly asking probing questions for
which there are of course no easy answers.
In contrast, Li offered constructive
criticism, with a clear cut and purposive
political objective in view. Russia is worked up
about the issue of the US bases in Afghanistan,
whereas China, which could also be sharing
Moscow's concerns, is going about the minefield
very differently and with great diplomatic aplomb.
Yet, at the end of the day, it is Russia - and not
China - that is cooperating with NATO in
Afghanistan at a practical level by offering
efficient, dependable and open-ended transit
facilities for NATO to ferry its supplies.
Actually, China is openly insisting that
it isn't involved in a zero sum game with the US
and that, on the contrary, the interests of China
and the US and its allies mesh as regards the
stabilization of Afghanistan, and there is no
fundamental contradiction as such. Coincidence or
not, just last week, the influential Chinese think
tanker Pan Guang, vice chairman of Shanghai Center
for International Studies at Shanghai Academy,
made an unprecedented presentation before the
American strategic community on the topic,
"Understanding China's Role in Central Asia and
Afghanistan." This happened just four days before
Zhou's unannounced trip to Kabul.
Pan is
easily recognizable for strategic analysts as an
authoritative voice on Track II. But what makes
things quite spicy is that he also happens to be a
key adviser to Zhou's ministry in Beijing on
Central Asia and Afghanistan (although his area of
specialization used to be Israel).
Pan
spoke for over an hour on China's role in Central
Asia and Afghanistan. He focused on China's
interest in fighting terrorism and extremism in
the region as well as China's interests in
containing the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, promoting energy and economic
development, and supporting Afghanistan in its
post-war reconstruction. The running theme of his
presentation was that like the United States,
China is interested in tackling issues such as
transnational crime, illegal immigration,
environmental degradation, water resource
shortage, and emerging public health issues.
Pan acknowledged that Beijing has
different views of political reform in Central
Asia, the alignment of energy pipelines in the
region, and the withdrawal of NATO troops from
Afghanistan. At the same time, he concluded that
both China and the US are playing an increasingly
crucial role in Central Asia, where they have
common and divergent interests, cooperation and
competition.
A profound message
Broadly echoing Pan's thought process, the
Global Times summed up Zhou's visit: "China has a
good opportunity to boost its global image and
fulfill its international obligations. While many
Western strategists stick to their mentality of
dominating world politics, China is making
pragmatic moves to safeguard the interests of not
only itself but also the whole region."
A
redeeming feature of Zhou's sudden Kabul trip that
may get overlooked in the overall excitement over
it but could be of pivotal importance for regional
security is that it took place at a period when
Afghan-Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated.
In fact, only last week, Afghan Foreign
Minister Zalmay Rassoul warned the UN Security
Council that continued Pakistani shelling of
Afghanistan's border provinces jeopardized
bilateral relations, "with potential negative
consequences for necessary bilateral cooperation
for peace, security and economic development in
our two countries and the wider region".
Curiously, government-owned China Daily
prominently featured a Xinhua report on Sunday -
even as Zhou was heading for Kabul - on the Afghan
parliament's endorsement of Kabul's latest plan to
lodge a formal complaint to the UN Security
Council over any Pakistani border shelling.
The lengthy Xinhua report said, "Pakistan
has been occasionally shelling the border areas in
the eastern Kunar and Nuristan provinces, forcing
locals to flee their houses for shelters, a claim
rejected by Pakistan." The curious part was that
China Daily highlighted the relevant excerpts of
Rassoul's condemnatory references to Pakistan in
his speech at the UN Security Council last week.
Now, a tantalizing question arises: How
would Beijing react to a complaint by Kabul to the
UN Security Council regarding Pakistan's violation
of Afghanistan's territorial integrity? The point
is, the Sino-Afghan joint declaration on June 8
commits Beijing and Kabul to "firmly support each
other on issues concerning national sovereignty,
unity and territorial integrity", and, to "enhance
coordination and cooperation under the United
Nations ... stay in contact and coordinate
positions."
It would seem that Zhou's
visit to Kabul in these troubled times also holds
a profound message for the "all-weather
friendship" between China and Pakistan.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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