On the 40th anniversary of diplomatic ties
between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and
Japan, the relationship between these two Asian
powerhouses is more fraught than at any time over
the past four decades.
The ongoing
standoff over a group of islands in the East China
Sea, called Diaoyu by the Chinese and Senkaku by
Japanese, is of course significant in its own
right. However, this clash is also symptomatic of
a much deeper crisis.
As the center of
economic and political power in Asia shifts from
Japan to China, an effort to redefine spheres of
influence is almost inevitable. This struggle for
influence is much exacerbated by a bloody legacy
of historical animosity and domestic attitudes of
fear and disdain.
Furthermore, the United States' strategic
redeployment to Asia plays a significant role in
the confrontation. As opportunities for mutual
benefit are squandered on both sides, the
economic, political and military implications of
the deep-rooted Sino-Japanese rivalry can be felt
around the world.
The worsening standoff
in the East China Sea has led to the cancellation
of planned celebrations to mark the 40th
anniversary of political ties between the PRC and
Japan. A meeting between Japanese political
leaders and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was at
first shortened, and then cancelled outright.
China's official Xinhua news agency reported that
scheduled celebrations in Beijing would be
"adjusted" to a "proper time".
Japanese
Foreign Ministry spokesman Masaru Sato was "very
disappointed" by the postponement of the
ceremonies, saying: "We don't believe that this
specific issue [the island dispute] should be
allowed to affect the broader perspective of our
relations. We are asking China to take a cool and
calm approach." [1]
In a face-saving
gesture, the Chinese leadership has invited former
prime minister Yukio Hatoyama and leaders of
Japanese-Chinese "friendship groups" to a dinner
in Beijing to mark the anniversary. It is unclear
exactly whom the Japanese delegation will meet
with.
The cancellation of the anniversary
ceremonies is a grave sign of the escalating
tensions in East Asia. What was meant to be a
showcase of amicable ties between Asia's two
largest economies has instead become
representative of the challenges faced in their
bilateral relationship.
Although the
current territorial dispute is important, the
difficulty in Sino-Japanese ties stems first and
foremost from a dramatic shift in power between
the two nations.
Since the 1930s, Japan
has viewed itself as the leader of Asia's "flying
geese". This theory of economic development, as
promoted by Japanese intellectuals, saw Japan as
the leader of a V-shaped formation of Asian
economies. Japan, as the leader of the flock,
should pass down industrial expertise to other
members of the group, while making technological
advances and staying in the prime position.
Japanese growth and investment would serve as a
model to other Asian nations.
Indeed, in
the decades after World War II, Japan was the
primary engine of growth in Asia. However, it now
has faced two "lost decades" of economic
stagnation as China's economy sustained
double-digit growth. In 2010, when China
officially surpassed Japan as the world's
second-largest economy, the Japanese "flying
geese" model was thrown on its head.
The
economic and political stagnation in Japan is
coupled with a demographic catastrophe. The
fertility rate is well below the level necessary
to sustain Japan's current population. Indeed, its
population appears to have peaked in 2008, just
before China overtook it as the world's
second-largest economy. Unlike most other highly
developed economies, Japan is extremely
restrictive on allowing immigrants to join the
Japanese workforce. The country's shrinking and
aging population is forecast to have severe
effects on its economic potential, with most
experts predicting a contraction of gross domestic
product over the next several decades in the
absence of an overhaul of immigration policies or
a sudden jump in fertility rates.
Domestic
politics are the second major factor in the frayed
Sino-Japanese ties. The shift in relative power
between Japan and China is having major effects on
the political scene in both countries. The
political leaders in both China and Japan exploit
popular fear and anger toward the other nation, as
Japan's slow decline is glaringly contrasted by
China's stellar rise. No doubt, the average
Japanese remains much wealthier than the average
Chinese, but the overall momentum in both
countries is depressingly obvious to Japanese
nationalists.
Fears of a rising China have
gained traction in mainstream Japanese political
discourse. According to research by Asahi Shimbun,
only 5% of Japanese citizens believe the
relationship with China is on the right track. Ten
years ago, 41% of Japanese polled thought the ties
between the two nations were "going well". [2]
What is more, only 3% of the Japanese polled had a
favorable view of China, down from 19% in 2002.
At the same time that large protests in
China against Japanese moves to nationalize the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands have devolved into riots in
several cities, Chinese citizens are generally
less pessimistic about Sino-Japanese ties than
their Japanese counterparts. Fourteen percent of
Chinese respondents believe relations are "going
well" between the two nations, down from 50% 10
years ago. Ten percent of respondents expressed a
favorable view of Japan, a figure unchanged since
2002.
When asked for the biggest problems
in Sino-Japanese relations, Japanese are most
likely to cite territorial disputes as the largest
issue, while Chinese are primarily concerned about
"perceptions of history".
Of course, these
two issues are interrelated. At recent talks at
the United Nations, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang
Jiechi condemned Japanese policy in the East China
Sea thusly: "The Japanese move is a gross
violation of China's territorial integrity and
sovereignty, an outright denial of the outcomes of
victory of the world anti-fascist war and a grave
challenge to the postwar international order." [3]
In China, the Diaoyu Islands dispute is
viewed as a continuation of the struggle against
Japan during World War II. As China's might
increases, there is still a popular Chinese
sentiment to punish Japan for wartime misdeeds.
In Japan, the territorial row is seen as
standing up to an increasingly powerful and
assertive China. Elements of the Japanese
leadership might seek to start a crisis with China
now, because in the future Japan may find itself
in a relatively unfavorable geopolitical position.
History - both the struggles of the past
and the changes due in the future - is the major
cause for Sino-Japanese mistrust and mutual
disdain. The governments in both nations are
pushed by historical factors into adopting a
combative stance. Chinese can never forget the
humiliation and vast suffering inflicted by the
Japanese in the first half of the last century.
Japanese politicians, on the other hand, are
constrained by a population fearful of China's
rise to atone for the misdeeds of previous
generations.
Japanese Prime Minister
Yoshihiko Noda recently addressed journalists
after wining an important inter-party vote. In his
first major interview after the ballot, he refused
South Korean demands for an apology for Japan's
wartime use of Korean sex slaves by saying: "The
matter is closed." He went on to say that Korean
criticisms over the issue "hurt the feelings of
conscientious Japanese, and it is a pity". [4]
The classic geopolitical rivalry between
China and Japan is made all the more dangerous by
such mainstream Japanese sentiments of ignoring or
playing down wartime atrocities.
The third
major factor in this rivalry is US involvement.
Washington strongly backs Japan as an essential
Asian ally. US officials have stated that the
disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands fall under the
US-Japan mutual defense treaty. Chinese Defense
Minister Liang Guanglie "resolutely opposed" the
islands' inclusion in the terms of the treaty. [5]
At the same time, Liang spoke of possible military
action over the standoff, and blamed Japan for the
escalation of the dispute. Clearly, the Chinese
government is keeping an eye on potential military
conflict in the East China Sea, and is keen on
avoiding possible US involvement.
While US
backing for Japan may constrain Chinese ambitions
and embolden the Japanese, the US presence also
has a significant stabilizing effect on the
Sino-Japanese rivalry. Japan's protection under
the "nuclear umbrella" of the United States gives
Tokyo little reason to weaponize its considerable
nuclear assets. At the same time that Washington's
military presence acts as a deterrent to
aggressive Chinese moves, the US will seek to
constrain hardline Japanese nationalists to avoid
becoming entangled in a major conflict. The last
thing the US government wants on its plate right
now is a military standoff with China.
Like many current geopolitical rivalries,
the story of the Sino-Japanese confrontation is a
tale of missed opportunities. Economic ties
between the two countries are already enormous:
China is Japan's largest trading partner.
Bilateral trade between the two nations passed
US$340 billion last year. Negotiations to conduct
trade in local currency instead of US dollars have
been put on hold because of the territorial row.
Meanwhile, Japanese companies operating in China
have complained of an increase in bureaucratic
obstacles to their business. Toyota, Nissan, and
Suzuki are cutting back their production in China.
Stock markets in Japan and Hong Kong have taken a
serious hit because of fears over the dispute.
China has much to lose from exacerbating
the current standoff. First and foremost, Japanese
investment and high technology have greatly
advanced China's economic development. Japanese
direct investment in China was more than $12
billion last year, up from roughly $7 billion in
2010. Japan's advanced machinery and information
technology are prized all around the world. Any
threat to Japanese sources of funds and expertise
is against China's long-term economic
self-interest.
Japan needs China even more
than China needs Japan. China's rapidly expanding
consumer market offers huge potential for Japanese
corporations. A stable and self-assured China
could provide strategic balance in the
Asia-Pacific region. Finally, the Chinese people
themselves could be an essential asset for saving
Japan from its slow-motion demographic and
economic catastrophe.
In the last decade,
China overtook South Korea as the primary source
of foreign-born residents in Japan. Hundreds of
thousands of Chinese have moved to Japan to seek
economic opportunity. China, with an ancient
culture similar to that of Japan, would be an
ideal source of desperately needed manpower. If
Japan could relax its social and political
attitudes to immigrants in general and the Chinese
in particular, it could be saved from looming
demographic disaster.
On their 40th
anniversary of official relations, the ties and
tensions between China and Japan are much deeper
than the current territorial and diplomatic spat.
The standoff over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has
served as a catalyst for bringing profound
bilateral issues to the light. The ongoing shift
in power, historical animosity, and emotional
domestic politics sour a relationship with great
potential for both sides.
China and Japan
have little to gain, and much to lose, by
exacerbating the current dispute. To overcome
China's historical anger and Japan's contemporary
fear, these two nations must seek common cultural
ground, and remember the enormous potential for
mutual benefit.
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