China's shake-up to shape
foreign policy By Brendan
O'Reilly
Continuing signs of an economic
slowdown coupled with a later-than-expected start
for the 18th National Congress of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing point to
troubling systematic uncertainty in the Middle
Kingdom. As China faces economic and political
challenges, new methods may be utilized to enact
its foreign-policy objectives.
Political
uncertainties, economic troubles, and China's
increase in relative power will have significant
and lasting effects on its relationship with its
neighbors and concerned world powers. China's
"peaceful rise" is only guaranteed in an
environment of domestic stability and
international respect.
The CCP is set to
start its 18th Congress on November 8, a bit
later than the widely
expected date in mid-October. This and the scandal
rocking its upper leadership are potential signs
of real political instability. The Bo Xilai affair
has tarnished the image of a united CCP during the
once-in-a-decade transition of power from one
generation of leadership to the next. Last week,
Bo was expelled from the party to face criminal
charges. His "Chongqing model" of government
efforts to redistribute wealth has some popular
support as the income gap widens in China.
Any signs of contention within the party
could have real effects on the country's foreign
policy. Furthermore, the significant slowdown in
China's economic growth may further affect the
country's foreign-policy focus.
To
understand how China's foreign policy may be
altered by the relevant transformations in its
economic and political landscape, it is important
to identify the policy's main objectives. There
are three consistent areas of foreign-policy focus
in the People's Republic of China (PRC). First and
foremost is China's push to integrate economically
with every country in the world. Second is its
effort to expand classic power-projection
capabilities. Third, it seeks steadfastly to
safeguard claims of Chinese sovereignty. Running
parallel to all of these vital trends is the
general theme of China's "peaceful rise".
China has made great strides in the past
three decades in integrating its market into the
global economy. China is the largest single
trading partner of dozens of nations, from Japan
and India to Peru and Angola. Its economic
integration with foreign countries has greatly
helped China's domestic development, while
providing the leadership with important diplomatic
leverage.
A recent piece in China Daily
promoted the image of China as the savior of the
global economy:
As the rest of the world was
paralyzed by the financial crisis originating
from Wall Street, China promptly unleashed a 4
trillion yuan (about $570 billion) stimulus
package, turning itself into a major driving
force of global growth. China has also pledged a
$43 billion contribution to the recapitalization
of the International Monetary Fund, which
urgently needs the money to help crisis-plagued
Europe. [1]
Undoubtedly, in the
current worldwide financial crises, China has
emerged as an indispensable engine of growth and
source of capital.
However, the current
slowdown in its rate of economic growth is
directly related to China's extensive integration
with the world market. As Europe and the US face
prolonged economic malaise, China's exporters have
suffered, with ripple effects hitting other
sectors of the country's economy. China may
attempt to continue rapid economic growth by
boosting the purchasing power of its hundreds of
millions of rural and urban poor. The potential
market for modern amenities such as washing
machines, electric scooters, and computers could
be worth many trillions of dollars of economic
growth in the country.
The potential
political and economic uncertainty in China will
have drastic effects on its economically centered
foreign policy. It is highly unlikely that China
will retreat from the global market as in past
centuries. However, a more populist trend in the
leadership, or the possible establishment of true
democratic reforms, could see vast changes in the
way the government uses the tremendous assets
earned through international trade.
The
current government policy of investing massive
amounts foreign-currency reserves in US debt is
deeply unpopular among the Chinese populace. Many
Chinese are similarly displeased with the
government's huge loans to poorer nations. Chinese
laborers and peasants would much rather see their
country's billions of dollars in foreign currency
invested in domestic improvements in education,
infrastructure and health care. If China's leaders
are forced by changing political realities to be
more sensitive to the popular sentiment, the
country may be a less reliable source of
desperately needed liquidity for both poor and
rich nations.
The second main area of
China's current foreign policy - classic power
projection - will also feel the consequences of
its political and economic uncertainties. The
leadership has expended considerable resources in
enhancing China's long-range military
capabilities. The deployment of the PLA Navy along
the Somali coast in counter-piracy operations,
China's increased military support to United
Nations peacekeeping missions, and the recent
launch of the country's first aircraft carrier are
good examples of this strengthening.
As
economic growth in China slows, one may expect the
government to focus even more on upgrading its
"blue water" naval capabilities and other military
assets. Economic development has been the prime
source of CCP legitimacy for the past three
decades. As the rate of economic growth slows, the
top leadership may make a push for flashy military
hardware to shore up domestic political support.
These capabilities are unlikely to be
deployed in a manner that directly threatens other
major powers. Rather, the leadership may take an
even more active role in international missions
that enhance Chinese prestige while limiting
geopolitical risks, such as UN peacekeeping and
international anti-piracy efforts.
The
third specific push of China's foreign policy is
the uncompromising effort to protect Chinese
sovereignty. In a recent speech to commemorate the
63rd anniversary of the founding of the PRC,
Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated his government's
long-standing commitment to "firmly safeguard
national sovereignty and territorial integrity".
[2] This policy agenda is likely to remain
unchanged in the event of political or economic
instability within China. However, the manner in
which China carries out policies to protect its
sovereignty may change in the event of an economic
slowdown and political uncertainty.
The
crisis with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands,
along with territorial disputes with the
Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea,
have seen the Chinese government take a strong
stance in defense of its territorial claims. These
claims will not be altered or mitigated by a
change in the leadership. After all, the
government of the Republic of China in Taiwan has
also enacted tough policies with regards to the
territorial disputes.
In the event of
major political contention or a true economic
crisis within the PRC, the government is likely to
take even stronger measures to protect Chinese
sovereignty in the disputed maritime areas. The
recent anti-Japanese riots in Chinese cities serve
as a reminder than many common Chinese people are
more inclined to take a military approach to
resolving these disputes than their leaders. Even
without major economic or political troubles, the
government will become more assertive with regards
to territorial disputes simply because China's
relative power has grown.
The leadership
sees no contradiction between the stated goal of
"China's peaceful rise" and taking a hardline
approach to resolving territorial disputes. As
seen from most Chinese eyes - be they Communist,
reformist, Confucian or democratic - these
contested territories are an integral part of
China. The Chinese cannot be acting aggressively
if they are protecting the sovereignty of their
own country. Many political elements in China feel
that their country is not being treated with the
proper fear and respect due to a major power in
disputes with obviously less powerful nations.
The list of historic injustices against
China - from the humiliating unequal treaties
imposed by Western powers to the Japanese
occupation - feature prominently in its collective
consciousness. Existing alongside knowledge of
these historical wrongs is a growing awareness of
China's current unprecedented rise. The
combination of these factors could lead to a very
interesting foreign policy.
As the
leadership looks for alternative sources of
political legitimacy in the face of economic
uncertainties, expect China to be more and more
assertive on the international scene. However, the
political and economic changes in China need not
lead to major conflicts. If a rising China can be
respectfully accommodated in the existing power
mechanisms of the world, then problematic
confrontations can be avoided. China has
historically acted with relative benevolence if
peripheral nations acknowledge its pre-eminence.
Above all else, the leadership and the
common people of China want respect. They will
seek to earn this respect through economic might,
military capabilities, and an uncompromising
stance toward territorial disputes. So long as the
international system can provide China with
economic opportunity, multilateral missions in
which to display military might, and the respect
due to a world superpower, China's rise can remain
peaceful.
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