Page 2 of
2 US
learns hard lessons of Asia
'pivot' By Peter Lee
In
Beijing, the delegation probably hoped to convince
the PRC regime that beating up on Japan would
entail serious consequences ... consequences like
the majestic cruise of the aircraft carrier
George Washington into the South China Sea
and the invitation extended to Vietnamese
officials to come aboard and experience the
vessel's awe-inspiring might first-hand.
Of course, Vietnamese - and Chinese -
officials might remember when this awe-inspiring
might was flung unsuccessfully against Vietnam,
somewhat blunting its effect ... especially when
it is recalled that the PRC has ample venues for
interaction, harassment and retaliation with its
southern neighbor that don't involve making a
vulnerable stand in the South China Sea under the
shadow of the George Washington.
The PRC has made it clear that it is in no
mood to welcome the
United States to the
Diaoyu / Senkaku party, certainly not in the form
of a quasi-official delegation.
On October
22, the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared:
[The delegation] is invited by the
Foreign Affairs Association. Mr Stephen Hadley,
National Security Council adviser under the
previous presidential administration, and other
ex-governmental worthies will visit China from
October 22 through October 24 to exchange views
on China-US relations and matters of mutual
concern. This delegation does not possess the
function to engage in so-called "mediation" or
"good offices".
In case anybody missed
the point, Global Times ran an article titled
"China avoids Diaoyu mediation attempts by US
delegation":
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman
Hong Lei said on Monday that the delegation
would focus on Sino-US relations.
"Hong's remarks indicated that China
will not accept the mediation of the US, which
has not shown any sincerity in defusing the
Diaoyu Islands dispute so far," Wang Pin, a
researcher on Japanese studies with the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global
Times Tuesday. [4]
To tarnish the
sheen of America's honest-broker status further,
Global Times sneered:
While the US is scurrying to prevent
military clashes between the two Asian giants so
that its own interest would not be harmed, it is
also trying its best to encourage Japan to boost
its defense to contain China, Wang
said.
State Councilor Dai Bingguo and
premier-in-waiting Li Keqiang met with the group
and, in a piece of sly jiu-jitsu, turned the
meeting into a discussion of US restrictions on
Chinese investment, making the case that the
Sino-US relationship was too important for the
United States to take lightly for the sake of its
precious pivot, not the other way around.
As to the Diaoyu Islands, they were
mentioned in passing:
Li also stated China's solemn stance
on the Diaoyu Islands issue, stressing the
international community should jointly protect
the outcomes of the victory of the Second World
War and the postwar international order.
[5]
This framing puts the United
States pretty much where China wants it:
ineffectual troublemaker unable to protect its
allies or constrain its opponents.
Chinese
media gleefully painted a picture of Japan
twisting in the wind on the islands issue, unable
to elicit European support and even making the
unlikely move of turning to Russia - even though
Tokyo is locked in its own island dispute with
Moscow over the Kuriles:
Despite its call for a peaceful
resolution to the [Diaoyu] islands row, Japan
spared no efforts during Japanese Foreign
Minister Koichiro Gemba's visits to France,
Britain and Germany last week to argue in favor
of its claim to the islands. But those on the
trips only received a cold response when they
brought up the dispute, reported Japanese
newspaper Mainichi Shimbun, saying that none of
the three countries visited has taken a position
in the matter. When asked whether support was
obtained during the trip, Gemba did not respond
directly, only saying that each of the three
parties is in a different situation and no
details about the matter can be disclosed, Kyodo
reported.
Kyodo said Gemba had high
expectations for the tour but found it hard to
obtain support in the countries he visited.
Meanwhile, Tokyo has started to turn to
Moscow. During a meeting between Japan and
Russia in Tokyo on Friday, the Japanese asked
that Russia show understanding toward Japan's
stance on the Diaoyu Islands.
Japanese
newspaper Sankei Shimbun said China's presence
in the ocean is expanding and Japan and Russia
have a "shared a belief about containing China".
[6]
Global anxiety over China's rise
and hardening anti-PRC sentiment within Japan will
probably deny China any clear and satisfying
victory over Japan. However, the previous
assumption that the PRC was merely a paper tiger
both unwilling and unable to retaliate in any
meaningful way will have to be re-examined.
This development will probably not provoke
a re-evaluation of the underlying policy by the
pivot's architects, Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton and Assistant Secretary for East
Asia Kurt Campbell.
Instead, it will be
seen as a test of America's determination to carry
out the policy - the "gut check" - although the
real-world "guts" in question reside in the flabby
midsection of Japan's economy - and, almost
inevitably, the Obama administration will probably
"double down", not "back down".
Originally, the polarization provoked by
the pivot was probably regarded as a feature,
rather than a bug. Japan, increasingly alienated
from China, would ally more enthusiastically and
effectively with the United States.
But as
Japan and China systematically escalate the
Senkaku / Diaoyu dispute, the US ability to deter,
restrain, exploit, or channel this hostility
decreases commensurately.
In Japan,
China-bashing is now a political lifeline, not
just a diplomatic stratagem. In China,
Japan-bashing is becoming a matter of national
identity.
Uichiro Niwa, the businessman
who was removed from his post as ambassador to
China because of his moderate, don't-rock-the-boat
views on the Senkakus (he is still serving
temporarily, since his designated successor died
of a heart attack before he could take the post),
said sadly:
"Now, Chinese TV programs constantly
show the Japanese flag and a photo of my face,"
the ambassador said. "And the TV says in simple
language that Japan is a thief who stole Chinese
territory. Even elementary-school children can
connect the flag, theft and my photo. In China,
I am feeling like I'm the ringleader."
Niwa said many Japanese volunteers
teaching Japanese or working as caregivers, on a
program by the Japan International Cooperation
Agency, were also feeling a sense of great
tension.
"This is the first time they
report such a situation since I came to China,"
said Niwa, who became ambassador to China in
2010. [7]
The fundamental flaw of the
pivot strategy was acknowledged by Campbell
himself when he referred to the rising hostility
between Japan and China, engendered of course by
past and present factors but exacerbated by the
pivot.
We are worried that persistent
high-level tensions are eating away at
Sino-Japanese goodwill, at enormous linkages
that have developed people to people, on
culture, on business ... it is stirring negative
feelings on both sides ... We recognize that
damage has been done, and we're worried about
it.
These people are learning to hate
each other for contemporary as well as historical
reasons, and there isn't a lot the United States
can do about it.
That might turn out to be
the most lasting consequence of the pivot.
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