China
searches for an Afghan
'pivot' By Brendan O'Reilly
China's new leaders-in-waiting face a host
of foreign-policy difficulties, from territorial
disputes in the South China Sea to increased
tensions with Japan. Deepening rivalry with the
United States is shaping these conflicts, with
Washington strengthening its strategic pivot to
the Asia-Pacific.
At this time, Beijing is
examining avenues for extending China's influence
into new regions. Afghanistan, with its vast
untapped mineral resources, pivotal strategic
position, looming security vacuum, and a small
border with the People's Republic of China, is an
ideal location for Beijing to seek greater
strategic depth and economic ascendancy.
Just as Chinese companies have won the
most lucrative oil
contracts in Iraq,
Beijing may reap the massive potential for
economic benefit in Afghanistan without deploying
a single solider. This pattern exemplifies the
divergent strategies of the world's two most
powerful nations. Recent history may repeat itself
in the Hindu Kush. China's economic focus pays
dividend, while America's overly militaristic
strategy is incredibly costly and largely
ineffective.
Before the Chinese Communist
Party's (CCP) 18th National Congress, the vice
president of Afghanistan, Mohammad Karim, had this
to say about China's leadership transition: "I
think definitely, there will be changes in the top
leadership of China after the upcoming event, but
those changes will not affect the friendship
between Afghanistan and China; rather, it will
further enhance the friendly ties between two
countries." [1] This expectation for improved ties
is strongly rooted in important recent
developments.
In September, Zhou Yongkang,
China's head of internal security who just stepped
down last week, made a surprise trip to Kabul.
This was the first time a senior Chinese official
had visited Afghanistan since 1966. Zhou met with
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and the two leaders
signed several political and economic cooperation
deals. Most surprising was a pledge for China to
help "train, fund and equip" the Afghan police.
Zhou stated, "It is in line with the fundamental
interests of the two peoples for China and
Afghanistan to strengthen a strategic and
cooperative partnership which is also conducive to
regional peace, stability and development." [2]
China has much to gain from a strategic
investment in Afghanistan. Influence over Kabul
will allow China to project power deep into
Central and South Asia at the expense of Indian,
American, and Russian influence. Furthermore,
Beijing is perpetually fixated on maintaining
domestic security and political unity. One of the
primary threats to China's internal cohesion is
ethnic separatism in Muslim-dominated Xinjiang
province. Some of the Uyghur separatists from
Xinjiang have links to the Taliban and other
Islamist movements. By seeking influence and
stability in Afghanistan, Beijing is acting in its
own security interest, both in the international
and the domestic spheres.
China's
interests in Afghanistan extend far beyond matters
of security. As is always the case with China's
foreign-policy objectives, Beijing's deepening
involvement in Afghanistan is motivated in large
part by economic factors. China's booming cities
need massive imports of copper, iron, oil, and
coal in order to sustain their breakneck growth. A
report from the US Pentagon estimated that
Afghanistan has over one trillion dollars in
potential mineral resources. Resource-hungry
China, with her financial and technological
capabilities for massive infrastructure
investments, is in prime position to tap into
Afghanistan's mineral wealth.
In 2007, the
state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation
secured a 30-year lease on MesAnyak in
Afghanistan's Logar province. Chinese surveyors
expect to extract over $100 billion worth of
copper from the site. Work on the mine has been
delayed by security concerns, and the fact that
the copper lies below an ancient Silk Road city.
Archeologists are calling for the mining project
to be postponed in order to allow a proper
excavation, but it seems unlikely that China
Metallurgical Group Corporation will stomach a
$3.5 billion loss on their initial investment to
lease the site. The Afghan government may also be
loath to forfeit their projected $300 million in
annual revenue from the mine.
Chinese
companies have also started pumping oil from
Afghan deposits. Afghanistan's first commercial
oil production site has been established in
northern Afghanistan with the help of China
National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). Hundreds of
millions of dollars have been invested in the
project, which is expected to extract 1.5 million
barrels of oil annually beginning next year. [3]
CNPC is now working on building a refinery, which
could allow Afghanistan to become more energy
self-sufficient. Both CNPC and the Afghan
government stand to make billions of dollars from
the 25-year contract.
Beyond the obvious
gains for the Chinese side, Afghanistan's
government itself also has much to gain from a
stronger relationship with Beijing. First, such a
move allows Afghan leaders to have more
independence from the United States. President
Karzai can now play Beijing, Washington, and New
Delhi against each other for his own political
benefit. Secondly, Chinese investments will
provide much-needed funds, as the economic and
security aid from Washington and Europe beings to
dry up.
America crusades, Beijing
trades The strengthening of the Sino-Afghan
relationship points to the emergence of a new
historic pattern. China has benefited from both of
the major conflicts of what was once called "The
Global War on Terror". Chinese firms reap
lucrative contracts in the wake of American
military quagmires.
Chinese companies have
received the largest oil concessions from the
Iraqi government. The International Energy Agency
(IEA) expects Iraq's oil production to more than
double over the next decade. By 2035, the IEA
predicts, more than 90% of Middle Eastern oil will
be shipped to Asia. As IEA executive director
Maria van der Hoeven summarized, "Iraq is a
game-changer in conventional oil and gas. Chinese
investment money will flow into the region, and
oil will flow back to Beijing." [4]
Why
are Chinese state-owned companies prospering in
the wake of American-led military campaigns? For
starters, Chinese coffers are full of hard
currency, and China's growing economy is heavily
dependent on the natural resources that are found
in abundance in both Iraq and Afghanistan. China's
state-owned enterprises have the money and the
motivation to make major bids in war-ravaged
countries lacking essential infrastructure. Of
course, an important reason why China has so much
money to spare is because Beijing has wisely
avoided costly military entanglements.
Brute economic dynamics may only be part
of the explanation for China's blossoming economic
success in Iraq and Afghanistan. Political factors
cannot be ignored. Many of the peoples of both
Iraq and Afghanistan have a significant degree of
resentment against the United States. Sustained
resistance to America's overwhelming military
superiority could not be perpetuated without a
significant measure of local support.
Even
the US-backed governments of Iraq and Afghanistan
have troubled relations with Washington. Although
Hamid Karzai owes his position as leader of
Afghanistan to American military muscle, his
relationship with his patrons is notoriously
strained. Furthermore, Iraqi and Afghan leaders
may (understandably) fear that economic projects
of Western firms are more likely to be subject to
revenge-driven attack and sabotage than are
Chinese ventures.
These dynamics point to
a profound change in the global system. The era of
old-fashioned imperialism is over. Even the
mightiest nations on Earth cannot translate
military dominance into economic ascendancy over a
foreign land. China's leadership has observed and
benefited from this trend. In recent decades,
Beijing has avoided adventurism and focused
instead on domestic infrastructure and foreign
trade. Washington, on the other hand, remains
fixated on costly weaponry and expensive foreign
deployments.
The results of these
different strategies should be obvious. China's
non-political and self-interested economic
investments pay dividends in increasingly scarce
natural resources. Meanwhile, America's massive
hemorrhaging of blood and treasure has not helped
America acquire a single barrel of oil.
As
the balance of power shifts from West to East,
Beijing may be tempted to militarize its foreign
policy. Afghanistan has suffered from three
decades of civil war and has huge deposits of
natural resources. The political developments in
Afghanistan can have profound effects on China's
northwestern frontier.
Finally, the
violence in Afghanistan threatens the investments
of Chinese state-owned companies. China' mine at
MesAnyak has already come under indirect rocket
fire from Afghan insurgents. Someday Afghanistan
may prove an enticing arena for China to prove her
martial prowess. As Beijing's new leaders deepen
their involvement in troubled Afghanistan, they
would be wise to learn from the misadventures of
past superpowers, and remember the benefits of
trade over war.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
