SHANGHAI - Whether and to what extent
China will adjust its diplomatic policy under its
new leadership has become a focus of attention for
China watchers.
"China will continuously
push for construction of a harmonious world with
permanent peace and common prosperity," Hong Lei,
a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told a journalist
on November 15 in response to a question as to
where the country's foreign policy will move
following this month's 18th Party Congress. "China
will unswervingly follow the road of peaceful
development and firmly pursue the independent and
peaceful foreign policy. China will unswervingly
follow a win-win and open-up strategy. China will
comprehensively develop the friendly cooperation
with other
countries on the basis of
the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence."
His statement was reiterated by a foreign
ministry spokeswoman four days later.
Although such official statements give no
hint of an adjustment in China's foreign policy,
this doesn't convince foreign relations experts in
China. Some Chinese scholars argue that China
should abandon the low-profile strategy set by
Deng Xiaoping 33 years ago and become more active
in pursuit of its "proper" international status as
an economic power.
Some foreign observers
believe such a change has already happened. David
Denoon, a professor at New York University, says
that since 2005 China has adopted an
over-confident, less-cooperative foreign policy.
China takes more aggressive positions in territory
issues, he said.
Chinese academics also
see signs of change. Professor Yan Xuetong, Dean
of International Studies Institute of Tsinghua
University, has argued that the aim, direction and
approach of Chinese diplomacy have changed. He
said the aim has changed from being
economic-interest-oriented to strategy-oriented,
the direction from passivity or inaction to
proactive, and the approach from one of passive
response to active reaction. In short, China has
become more actively involved in helping to shape
the international order.
Regardless of the
continuity or adjustment, an understanding of the
possible tendency of China's foreign policy should
be based on three factors - China's domestic
conditions, its external conditions and its
traditional conception. If there is any change in
these factors, China should adjust its diplomacy
policy accordingly.
In regard to domestic
conditions, the biggest domestic issue for both
Chinese leaders and the public is economic
stability and sustainable development. If the
economy is in bad shape, China will run into a
huge crisis which may be unbearable, particularly
in consideration of its huge population and
serious social problems. This means ensuring
economic stability and high-speed development as a
core objective of foreign policy, since a
country's diplomacy basically is to serve its
domestic interests.
China is in economic
transition from a labor-intensive or
capital-intensive economy to high-tech-intensive
or smart economy. At such a crucial time of
economic restructuring, China's policies, domestic
and foreign, must focus on avoiding any risk that
could jeopardize its economic stability and
development.
The US's "pivot" to Asia is
the biggest challenge to China's diplomacy. Since
the Barack Obama administration introduced this
policy, Beijing has been increasingly challenged
by neighboring countries with territorial disputes
by countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and
Japan. How to respond to these challenges and at
the same time to keep regional stability in East
and Southeast Asia is a challenging task facing
China's new leaders.
Both ancient and
modern ideas, regardless of whether they are
ancient ideas such as Confucianism or Daoism and
modern socialist internationalism or nationalism,
converge on a strategic ideal - the pursuit of a
"harmonious world", which calls for respect for
sovereign equality and cultural pluralism. Beijing
will continuously oppose international hegemonic
behavior and illegitimate interference by force in
international affairs.
Continuity or
adjustment in China's diplomacy can be analyzed
and examined based on the domestic and external
conditions as well as the traditional conceptions
and thoughts.
Generally speaking, China's
foreign policy will continue to ensure a stable
and safe international environment for its
economic restructuring and development, which
remains a core strategy of China's diplomacy. As
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said, "Economic
development is the central task of China right
now. The focus of our diplomatic work should just
be to create a favorable international environment
for the country's economic growth, but also to
directly serve the economy".
He made these
remarks at a press conference on the sidelines of
the annual session of China's National People's
Congress (NPC) in 2009. This argument seems still
valid for today's Chinese diplomatic task. But
this does not mean there won't be some subtle
changes in foreign policy, as expanded interests
and changes in external conditions are taken into
consideration.
With the development of
China's economy in recent decades, China's
economic interests have become increasingly
globalized, so nowadays to ensure the safety of
shipping of Chinese goods becomes a very important
diplomatic task of Beijing.
At the recent
18th Party Congress, President Hu Jintao declared
that China will turn itself into a maritime power,
which means it will enhance its strength and
capability in ocean development, safeguarding its
maritime rights and interests, and safeguarding
the freedom of its sea lanes. This becomes one of
the central tasks of Chinese leaders and diplomats
in future, and they will inevitably have to deal
with challenges by the US with its
"Return-to-Asia" strategy.
Meanwhile,
China has to be more proactive to pursue its
national interests at a global level rather than
remaining in a passive position. The old
issue-driven diplomacy should be replaced by
agenda-driven diplomacy. Beijing will proactively
address issues rather than awkwardly make
responses when being challenged, to peacefully and
effectively deal with potential conflicts with
other countries, including big powers and its
neighbors.
Although ensuring economic
restructuring and development as well as
maintaining a stable international and regional
environment for this purpose is the core objective
for China's diplomacy, the approach toward this
goal should and could be more diversified than
before.
For a long time, Beijing has
preferred to use economic resources to foster
stable bilateral relations and international
order, but this has had many negative
consequences. A close economic relationship cannot
always ensure a friendly political relationship.
The fragmentation of foreign relations has finally
harmed economic relations and China's national
interest. So besides using economic rewards and
bribes, diverse approaches such as lending
political supports, pursuing military cooperation
or societal exchanges should be taken more
regularly.
Moreover, with the rise of
emerging countries, China will build closer
relationships with them at a bilateral level as
well as at a multilateral level, especially in the
Group of 20 and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa) forums. In these
non-US-dominated multilateral venues, China can
involve itself in the construction of a new world
order with greater equality and democracy.
Finally, as the second-largest economy and
a fast-rising power, China has to bear more
international responsibility so as to safeguard
its national interest and also help maintain world
peace and prosperity. China cannot become a great
power until it can provide positive and efficient
ideas and action plans to the world.
In
conclusion, changes in China's diplomacy can be
expected under its new leadership. However,
Beijing cannot alter its diplomatic strategy in a
radical way but can gradually adjust some
approaches, tactics and features. Beijing will
strive to keep a balance between "keeping a low
profile" and "actively pursuing something", both
of which are the legacy of the late Deng Xiaoping.
But whatever changes there may be, China's
foreign policy won't ever aim to make the country
a hegemon, or an aggressive or colonial power.
Although China is developing to be a superpower,
it will not act like the United States. "China has
never colonized any overseas territories" - the
words of Martin Jacques, the author of When
China Rules the World, are perhaps a good key
for us to understand the future of China's foreign
policy.
Dr Jian Junbo is an
assistant professor of the Institute of
International Studies at Fudan University,
Shanghai, China.
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