The Communist Youth League (CYL)
clique headed by President and former General
Secretary Hu Jintao suffered a setback in the
factional balance of the Chinese Communist Party
Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) selected
earlier this month. Premier-designate Li Keqiang
is the only CYL clique affiliate among the seven
members of the supreme ruling council, which was
established one day after the closure of the 18th
Party Congress.
The other six PSC members
are either associated with the Gang of Princelings
(taizidang) headed by new General Secretary
Xi Jinping or with the Shanghai Faction led by
former president Jiang Zemin.
The CYL
clique, or tuanpai, which has been
meticulously nurtured by Hu from the mid-1980s
onwards has, however, remained the
CCP's single largest
faction. This close-knit network is particularly
strong amongst Fifth Generation cadres (those born
in the 1950s) as well as Sixth Generation cadres
(those born in the 1960s). Moreover, its
predominance will manifest itself no later than
the 19th Party Congress set for 2017.
The
CYL clique's strength is apparent within the
entire Politburo of 25 members, 12 of whom were
born in the 1950s. At least nine Politburo members
are deemed to be tuanpai affiliates. Apart
from Li Keqiang, age 57, they include two
second-term Politburo members who almost made it
to the PSC at the 18th Party Congress: former
director of the CCP Organization Department Li
Yuanchao, age 62, and Guangdong Party Secretary
Wang Yang, age 57.
The other five
tuanpai Politburo members are State
Councilor Liu Yandong; the newly appointed
Propaganda Department Director Liu Qibao; Beijing
Party Secretary Guo Jinlong; Director of the
General Office of the Central Committee Li
Zhanshu; Shanghai Party Secretary Han Zheng; and
Inner Mongolia Party Secretary Hu Chunhua. The CYL
clique is also the largest bloc within the 205
full Central Committee members elected by the
2,200-odd delegates of the 18th Party Congress.
80% of the Central Committee members are Fifth
Generation stalwarts.
Of the seven newly
minted PSC members, five can serve only one term
due to age reasons. They are National People's
Congress Chairman Zhang Dejiang, age 66; chairman
of the Chinese People's Political Consultative
Congress Yu Zhengsheng, age 67; executive
secretary of the CCP Secretariat Liu Yuanshan, age
65; secretary of the Central Disciplinary
Inspection Committee Wang Qishan, age 64; and
Executive Vice Premier-designate Zhang Gaoli, age
66. Owing to their seniority as well as their
generally positive track record, Li Yuanchao and
Wang Yang are considered shoo-ins for the PSC five
years down the road.
Equally significant
is the fast-rising political fortune of
49-year-old Hu Chunhua, who is deemed a potential
"core" of the Sixth Generation leadership. Hu
Chunhua, a former CYL party secretary who is
expected to be appointed Guangdong party secretary
early next year, has been mentioned as a successor
to Xi. He and newly appointed Chongqing Party
Secretary Sun Zhengcai, who is the only other
Sixth Generation Politburo member, are tipped for
induction to the PSC at the 19th Party Congress.
Sun, age 49, who is a protege of Premier Wen
Jiabao, does not have obvious factional
inclinations.
Indeed, the advantage of the
tuanpai is even more obvious among
fast-rising Sixth Generation cadres. Of the nine
Central Committee members who were born in the
1960s, five hail from the CYL clique. Apart from
Hu Chunhua, they include Hunan Party Secretary
Zhou Qiang, Xinjiang Autonomous Region Chairman
Nur Bekri, Fujian Governor Su Shulin, and the
current CYL First Party Secretary Lu Hao. At age
45, Lu is also the CCP's youngest Central
Committee member.
By contrast, there are
few Shanghai Faction, or taizidang, members
among either Fifth Generation or Sixth Generation
officials. Princelings have since the early 1990s
been perceived by ordinary party members as
symbols of special privilege. Since early this
year, the taizidang public image has been
further tarnished by the political scandal of
former Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai, who is the
son of revolutionary elder Bo Yibo. The
taizidang's reputation has taken a further
drubbing thanks to numerous reports by both the
Chinese and foreign press about the questionable
business dealings of the spouses and children of
top officials.
It is therefore not
surprising that just a few Fifth Generation
princelings were elected into the Central
Committee - but only as alternate members. A good
example is Li Xiaopeng, age 53, the executive vice
governor of Shanxi Province and a former president
of the state-held energy giant, the Huaneng Group.
The fact that Li, the eldest son of former premier
Li Peng, garnered the least votes among the 171
Alternate Central Committee members testified to
the unpopularity of princeling politicians.
General Secretary Xi encountered a similarly
humiliating experience in 1997. Xi was the least
popular among the 131 Alternate Central Committee
members who were picked by delegates to the 15th
Party Congress.
The only political sector
where Fifth Generation princelings have retained
sizeable influence is the military. Forty-one of
the 205 Central Committee members hail from the
People's Liberation Army and the paramilitary
People's Armed Police. This is in keeping with the
long-held tradition that 20% of Central Committee
seats be reserved for the armed forces.
"Princeling generals" who made it to the
18th Central Committee include the new General
Armaments Department Director General Zhang
Youxia; General Logistics Department Political
Commissar General Liu Yuan; Navy Political
Commissar Admiral Liu Xiaojiang; Second Artillery
Political Commissar General Zhang Haiyang; and
National Defense University Political Commissar
General Liu Yazhou. Moreover, given the cozy
relationship between Xi - who assumed the
chairmanship of the Central Military Commission
the same day that he became CCP general secretary
- and these princeling generals, the PLA may
become the new supremo's major power base.
Another power bloc that has made
impressive gains at the 18th Party Congress
consists of representatives of China's
yangqi, or centrally held, state-owned
enterprise (SOE) conglomerates. Six full Central
Committee members are yangqi bosses,
compared with just one five years ago. They are
China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp
president Ma Xingrui; China Aerospace Science and
Industry Corp general manager Xu Dazhe; China
Aviation Industry Corp president Lin Zuoming;
China North Industries Group Corp (Norinco)
president Zhang Guoqing; PetroChina President
Jiang Jiemin; and Bank of China president Xiao
Gang.
In addition, the president of
China's sovereign fund, China Investment Corp, Lou
Jiwei, was promoted from alternate to full member
of the Central Committee. Yangqi,
particularly those with links to the military, are
traditionally close to the Gang of Princelings.
For example, the eldest son of ex-president Jiang
Zemin, Jiang Mianheng, has had a long association
with defense and aerospace industries.
By
contrast, there is only one private entrepreneur
in the Central Committee: alternate member Zhang
Ruimin, who is the boss of Hai'er, the famous
maker of household appliances. This is the third
time that Zhang has been named a Central Committee
alternate member since 2002. Liang Wen'gen,
chairman of Sany Group and one of the wealthiest
men in China, failed to be elected an alternate
Central Committee member. This was despite
widespread reports in the Chinese media that he
would be inducted into the Central Committee.
The increasing political clout of the
yangqi CEOs seems to testify to the fact
that the trend - characterized by Chinese
economists as "the state sector advances even as
the private sector retreats" (guojin
mintui) - probably will continue for the
foreseeable future.
A sure-fire way for
the CYL clique to maintain its profile and
momentum in the higher echelons of the party-state
apparatus is to seize the moral high ground of
reform. In a State Council conference held just
one week after the 18th Party Congress,
Premier-designate Li Keqiang hoisted high the
banner of institutional and economic reform.
In language that is reminiscent of that
used by both Premier Wen and late patriarch Deng
Xiaoping, Li stated "our only [choice] is to go
forward since there is no way back". He added, "We
must be brave in experimentations, because this is
where our responsibility lies... We may be able to
avoid mistakes if we do nothing; yet we have to
shoulder the responsibility that history has given
us." Li put particular emphasis on the propagation
of "equality of rights, equality of opportunity
and equality of regulations - so that every
citizen can be able to derive benefits through
hard work".
Given his relatively
lackluster performance the past five years, the
CYL standard bearer cannot afford to waste any
time in augmenting his reformist credentials.
Failure to do so will not only affect his ability
to become an effective premier, but also cast a
shadow on the promotion prospects of the Sixth
Generation CYL rising stars who are waiting in the
wings.
Dr Willy Wo-Lap Lam is a
Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation. He has
worked in senior editorial positions in
international media including Asiaweek
newsmagazine, South China Morning Post, and the
Asia-Pacific Headquarters of CNN. He is the author
of five books on China, including the recently
published Chinese Politics in the Hu Jintao
Era: New Leaders, New Challenges. Lam is an
Adjunct Professor of China studies at Akita
International University, Japan, and at the
Chinese University of Hong Kong.
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