SPEAKING
FREELY China to rule the seas -
unmanned By Elizabeth Van Wie
Davis and Margaret Albert
In the cold blue
waters between China and Japan, a Chinese fishing
craft collided with two Japanese coast guard
patrol boats near the uninhabited islands in the
East China Sea known as the Diaoyu Islands in
China and the Senkaku Islands in Japan. Following
the collision on September 7, 2010, coastguards
boarded the trawler and arrested the Chinese crew
and captain. Following the incident, anti-Japanese
protests were held in many Chinese cities, Chinese
tour groups visiting Japan were recalled, and a
decision was made to suspend the export of rare
earths to Japan. [1]
The strength of
reaction in this seemingly small-scale maritime
accident is a symptom of a deeply rooted conflict.
The islands
occupy a sensitive
position in China-Japan relations - they were
first seized by Japan in the Sino-Japanese war of
1894-5, with the annexation of Taiwan and Korea,
followed by the invasion of China by Japan in the
1930s. [2]
The conflict continued as the
waters were filled with ships again in October
2012, this time naval ships. The Chinese Navy's
East Sea Fleet and civilian maritime patrol
agencies conducted their annual joint maneuvers
simulating a situation where Japanese law
enforcement vessels obstruct and interfere with
Chinese maritime surveillance and fisheries
administration vessels. The simulated scenario
included a collision in which the Chinese ships
are damaged and personnel are hurt and fall into
the water, requiring further support of a frigate,
a hospital ship, a tugboat, advanced fighters and
helicopters for support, cover and emergency
rescue. [3]
Advance in time to just a few
short years later: it is 2015, and drones are
returning to special unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)
bases, crossing disputed national airspace while
surveying activity around the respective islands.
[4] The searching multispectral sensor scopes the
waters for signs of civilian and military activity
near the territories. Tensions heighten due to the
ever-present, ever-watching, barely seen spots in
the sky.
These scenarios give context to
China's recently declared intention to deploy
marine surveillance drones to track activity
around the archipelagos - an action that may set a
precedent for dealing with controversial, disputed
territories throughout the region. China's use of
drones facilitates an old strategy of perception
politics that helps enforce its territorial claims
over disputed islands. Drones also expand China's
regional military power as they induce broad,
invasive footprints of surveillance. Additionally,
drones reduce the necessity of maintaining
diplomatic sensitivity because they are a
dehumanizing tool that further distances surveyors
and objects of surveillance, the bullet and the
target.
China is developing civilian and
military varieties of drone technologies as part
of a strategy to "accelerate its transition from
territorial air defense to both offensive and
defense operations, and to increase its
capabilities for carrying out reconnaissance... "
[5] The PLA Air Force is investing in long-range
reconnaissance and armed drones, [6] and at a pace
and lack of transparency disturbing to regional
and US military interests. In 2010, China revealed
nearly 25 different models of drones at the Zhuhai
air show - whereas reports indicate that two years
earlier China had displayed only a few models. [7]
The expansion of indigenous drone
technology results from US intervention in the
early 2000s, when the US leaned on Israel to stop
exports of the Harpy UAV to China in response to
Taiwanese concerns that the nearly 100 drones
would threaten the island's security. [8] At this
year's Zhuhai air show, the China Aerospace
Science & Industry Corp (CASIC) revealed six
new drone models (military and civilian), and
Aviation Industry Corp of China marketed an armed
Wing Loong UAV. [9]
With future estimates
of the value of the Chinese drone industry
reaching the billions of dollars, [10] China's
rapid development of drone technology is
coalescing with regional development into a near
future of persistent drone use within Asia. [11]
One study conducted by the Teal Group Corporation
projects that the Asia-Pacific market for drones
may exceed US$8.6 billion, with the number of
drones near 7,552 over the next decade. [12] While
drones require state investment, Southeast Asia is
catching up in the race for drone technology.
And the gods of war flash mischievous
grins anew - the emerging drone market in China
and broader Asia is an early sign that past
intermittent tensions in the region may evolve
into persistent conflict.
In past
flare-ups between China and Japan over the
uninhabited island territories, the tension is
perpetuated by nationalist activist groups from
the respective states provoking action from the
opposing militaries. As the earlier narratives
indicated, the flare-up occurs, states rekindle
power-flexing rhetoric and economic threats, but
eventually tensions dwindle to a smolder, with the
parties returning to their corners. And the
islands remain relatively non-governmental
territories. But, when China begins actively
deploying drones for constant surveillance over
the islands, China will effectively be
establishing territorial domination as a
persistent military presence that represents a
shift to territorial sovereignty.
The
final piece of drone-induced power politics is the
dehumanizing nature of drones. Drones are a
paradigm-shifting weapon that relax the perceived
need for multi-perspective dialogue. Drones create
social distance by facilitating dehumanization of
opposing parties: they reduce the mutual risk of
human cost in both surveillance and strike
operations.
British Army officer and
former drone operator James Jeffrey, who piloted
drone operations in Afghanistan, described the
dehumanization that drones facilitate:
"It [drones] makes it [attacks] a
lot more acceptable, a lot more palatable; it's
on a computer screen... within 10 minutes you've
forgotten that it happened and you've moved on.
You dehumanize the enemy further, which always
happens in war, but it takes it to another...
degree." [13]
As dehumanization and
increasing social distance become ingratiated in
the international relations culture - on a
regional and global level - the incentive to
understand alternative parties' perspectives
diminishes rapidly.
Prior incidents of
territorial clashes over the East China Sea
islands have generally been characterized by
face-to-face encounters with the 'opposition', but
future drone activity escalates the potential for
perpetual war and reduces the quality of security.
Conflict actors may long for the peaceful tension
of years past when adversaries had to physically
engage with the persons that opposed them.
All factors combined, the subtle shift
from human engagement to machines in Asia enhances
a perception of China's territorial sovereignty in
various arenas of regional disputes, which may
lead to a path to perpetual conflict.
And,
while it is difficult to accurately predict the
consequences of evolving drone activity, it is
necessary to explore the potential uses and
ramifications of drones. Asia's drone development
and proposed future drone use are a signal to
governments and societies that a brave new world
is fast approaching of Platonic perception
politics, surveillance and military conflict. The
'winners' in that world will be those able to
adapt the new politics and technology to specific
power goals. Today, China looks to be a winner.
Notes: 1. Joyman Lee,
Senkaku/Diaoyu: Islands of Conflict, History
Today, Volume: 61, Issue: 5 2011. 2. In 1972,
Zhou Enlai and Takeiri Yoshikazu (leader of the
Komeito party) appeared to agree orally not to
discuss the Diaoyu Islands in talks that would be
held to normalize relations between the two
countries. Apparently, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai
told Japan's Takeiri, "There is no need to mention
the Diaoyu Islands. It does not count a problem of
any sort compared to recovering normal relations
[between the two countries]." From China's point
of view, the decision not to discuss the dispute
at the time was a recognition that a dispute did
exist. Similarly, in 1978, Deng Xiaoping and the
Japanese Foreign Minister also appeared to agree
orally not to discuss the Diaoyu Islands at a
later time, with Deng stating, "It's not that
China and Japan do not have any problems. For
example [there are] the Diaoyu Island and
continental shelf issues. Don't drag them in now,
they can be set aside to be calmly discussed later
and we can slowly reach a way that both sides can
accept. If our generation cannot find a way, the
next generation or the one after that will find a
way." See M. Taylor Fravel, Something
to Talk About in the East China Sea, The
Diplomat: China Power, September 28, 2012. 3.
Kathrin Hille, Chinese
navy on exercise near Senkakus, Financial
Times, October 19, 2012. 4. Lu Hui, China
to deploy drones for marine surveillance,
Xinhua, August 29, 2012. 5. China's
National Defense in 2008: VI. The Air Force,"
Official Publications, Chinese Government's
Official Web Portal. 6. Military
and Security Developments Involving the People's
Republic of China 2010, Annual Report to
Congress, Office of the Secretary of Defense,
33. 7. Jeremy Page, China's
New Drones Raise Eyebrows, The Wall Street
Journal, November 18, 2010. 8. Scott Wilson,
Israel
Set to End China Arms Deal Under US Pressure,
The Washington Post June 27, 2005. 9. Jasmine
Wang, China
Drone Maker Expects to Double Sales on Islands
Dispute, Bloomberg News, November 15, 2012.
10. Ibid. 11. South Korea is developing a
"kamikaze" drone called the Devil Killer, a
55-pound (25-kilogram) UAV that is pre-programmed
to hit specific targets - a technology that some
reports have indicated is being simultaneously
developed in North Korea. The Devil Killer is
slated to be operational in 2015. Daniel Miller,
South
Korea developing kamikaze-style drone that dive
bombs the enemy at 250mph, Daily Mail, October
11, 2012. 12. World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Systems, Teal Group Corporation, 2012. Interview
with Philip Finnegan, Teal Group Director of
Corporate Analysis, November 19, 2012, 10 am.
13. 'Too
easy': Ex-drone operator on watching civilians
die, BBC News, October 5, 2012.
Dr Elizabeth Van Wie Davis
has lived and worked in Asia for many years. Her
fourth book,Ruling,
Religion and Resources in China, was
published in November, 2012.
Margaret Albert is
completing her Masters in International Political
Economy of Resources at the Colorado School of
Mines.
(Copyright 2012 Elizabeth Van
Wie Davis and Margaret
Albert.)
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