The intelligence community of the United
States has acknowledged that, within two decades,
the country will no longer be the world's sole
hegemon. "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds",
written by the National Intelligence Council of
the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence, provides forecasts of important
global developments over the next 20 years. One of
the most vital passages of this report details how
China is almost certain to overcome the United
States as the world's largest economic power
sometime before 2030.
However, the report
predicted that no other single power will rise up
to take the place of the United States: "With the
rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar
moment' is over and no country - whether the US,
China, or any other country - will be a hegemonic
power." [1]
This prediction of a
multipolar world was somewhat tempered by
another key phrase in the
report: "China's power has consistently increased
faster than expected".
The US intelligence
community acknowledges that China and the US may
emerge as rough equals over the coming years - but
at the same time, China has consistently surpassed
previous expectations of economic, political, and
military progress.
Of course, the
projections of the US Intelligence community must
be taken with a grain of salt. Remember, these are
the same organizations that could not foresee the
collapse of the Soviet Union or the 9/11 attacks.
Many of these "experts" were warning of the dire
threat posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass
destruction in 2002. Nevertheless, "Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds" has taken into account
some solid analysis of ongoing global
developments. While the report is no doubt shaped
by the worldview of mainstream Washington, the
overall trends it documents are fairly clear.
Humanity will be living in an increasingly
multipolar environment - and an increasingly
Chinese world.
Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hong Lei specifically addressed the
conclusions of this U.S intelligence report. Hong
promised an eternally benevolent China:
China will unswervingly pursue a way
of peaceful development. China's development
aims at making greater contributions toward
peace and development of mankind, as well as a
happy life for its people, instead of
overwhelming others or scrambling for world
dominance. [2]
This theme of China's
inherently peaceful and mutually beneficial rise
is common in Chinese political and popular
discourse. Chinese people often contrast the
foreign policy of their country with the meddling
and aggression that they believe has been inherent
in other hegemonic powers.
Indeed, the
assertion of China remaining largely peaceful
during times of great Chinese power is to some
degree grounded in historic realities. China's
leaders have traditionally focused on the huge
task of maintaining domestic political and social
stability in the vast and populous Middle Kingdom.
Foreign nations were usually left to their
own affairs - provided they symbolically
acknowledged China as the "elder brother" through
annual gifts to the emperor. Trade took precedence
over military engagements. In both ancient and
modern times, China's military adventures have
been largely confined to China's immediate
borders. These conflicts saw China counteracting
perceived threats to the Chinese mainland, as well
as slowly expanding the empire's frontiers.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei also
attempted to downplay predictions of China's
coming preeminence: "Despite the remarkable
achievements made since reform and opening-up,
China is still the world's biggest developing
country and has a long way to go in realizing
socialist modernization. We have a clear
understanding of that." [3]
This
de-emphasis of China's growing strength has been a
consistent feature of Chinese foreign policy for
several decades. Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader
who led his people into the modern economic
system, famously advised his subordinates to "Hide
your capability and bide your time". After all,
time was (and is) on China's side. China is likely
to become the world's most powerful nation long
before anyone realizes it - including the Chinese
themselves.
How to survive
PaxSinica The world's major powers -
especially the United States - can take concrete
measures to ensure that China's rise is not
accompanied by dangerous and unpredictable
confrontation. First and foremost, one must avoid
insults to China's perception of "face". An
increasingly powerful China is impatient to earn
what it sees as its rightful place as a fully
respected member of the international community.
The Chinese emphasis on respect means that
Western (and especially US) criticism of China's
internal political structure are in all
probability counterproductive. The war in Iraq,
the official use of torture, and Washington's
ongoing support for despotic regimes have
effectively rendered US criticism of Chinese
policies obsolete in the eyes of most of the
world's population.
Moreover, one could
imagine the domestic political reaction if China
started condemning America's procedures on
domestic surveillance or the "No Fly List". In all
likelihood, such criticism would actually
reinforce the controversial US policies, because
American leaders would want to demonstrate their
independence in the face of malignant foreign
pressure.
Furthermore, any US attempt to
create a "North Atlantic Treaty Organization of
the East" to jointly resist Chinese territorial
claims is almost guaranteed to backfire. The
Chinese government and public - in both the
mainland and on Taiwan - see the disputed
territories of the South China Sea and
Diaoyu/Senkaku islands as integral parts of the
Chinese nation.
Therefore US backing for
Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam is seen as a
threat to China's territorial integrity. China's
leaders can maintain a tough stance in these
territorial disputes, while at the same time
championing "peaceful development" precisely
because, in Chinese eyes, these territories are
simply another part of China.
Finally, if
concerned powers want to keep a rising China
peaceful, they must encourage China's economic
growth and political stability. "Global Trends
2030: Alternative Worlds" specifically warned,
"many experts believe a democratic China could
also be more nationalistic... historical parallels
with other great power rises suggest that Chinese
assertiveness might increase as its economic
growth slows and there is political need at home
to demonstrate China's standing in the world." [4]
China's current leadership earns its
legitimacy through the continued ability to
improve the standard of living for the Chinese
people. Any major threats to this dynamic could
unleash military conflicts to define China's
borders. Remember, China's leaders remain
internally focused. A war over islands in the
South China Sea would be less about the islands
themselves and more about the need to unite the
populace against a foreign enemy.
There
are signs that the United States and China can
accommodate a major shift in the balance of world
power without resorting to antagonism. Recent
talks at the Pentagon between Jim Miller, US
undersecretary of defense for policy, and Qi
Jianguo, deputy chief of the General Staff of the
Chinese People's Liberation Army, are a sign of
mutually respectful military-to-military ties.
Furthermore, at a recent meeting with
former US president Jimmy Carter, Xi called for
the two powers to "accumulate positive energy". At
this meeting, US Ambassador to China Gary Locke
hailed the potential for US-China cooperation:
"Many global issues cannot and will not be
resolved without cooperation and the joint
partnership of the United States and China.
Working in those ways, we can certainly move away
from mistrust and build trust." [5]
Conflict can be avoided if the United
States respects China and China avoids stoking US
fears. There is little history of animosity
between the two powers. For most of the last
century, China and America were allies, first
against Japanese imperialism and then against
Soviet influence. Furthermore, there are vast
avenues for cooperation between the two powers on
issues ranging from global climate change to
counter-terrorism, international finance, and
maritime security.
So long as China is
stable, increasingly prosperous, and most
importantly, internationally respected, there is
little cause for the US to fear sharing the
responsibilities of a global superpower with
China. However, it remains to be seen whether
America's leaders are willing to accommodate China
as an equal - much less as an esteemed Elder
Brother.
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