US,
China set for a year of
surprises By Brendan O'Reilly
The United States and China have completed
their respective leadership transitions. Now the
two powers can begin developing their
ever-transforming relationship in an atmosphere of
(relative) domestic political stability. Last year
brought about important changes to the
Sino-American dynamic - most notably the US's
much-heralded "pivot" to Asia. The Chinese
leadership is increasingly vocal regarding
perceived US interference in China's strategic
front yard. The major trends in the relationship
will continue in 2013, although there are some
potentially destabilizing developments afoot.
China's domestic political transition
brought no surprises. Xi Jinping has been the heir
apparent of Communist Party for many years. There
are hopeful signs that Xi Jinping himself may be
personally amicable to the
United States: in the mid-1980s, Xi spent some
time studying US agriculture in Muscatine, Iowa.
Meanwhile, the US re-election of Barack
Obama also represents a relatively favorable
outcome for the People's Republic of China.
Republican rival Mitt Romney had promised to label
China a "currency manipulator" on his first day in
office - opening the way to trade sanctions. Such
a move would have had serious implications for
Sino-US economic and political ties.
Despite these positive superficial
developments in Sino-American situation, there are
deepening general tensions in the world's most
important bilateral relationship. The US military
"pivot" towards Asia, and American backing for
Japan in the territorial dispute over the
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands are causing serious and
open strains.
Compounding these new
sources of tension is a longest-standing
disagreement over American weapons sales to the
government of Taiwan. The stage is set for a
period of increasing - and increasingly open -
confrontation between the United States and China
in 2013.
Regional rumblings The
mounting tensions in the East China Sea lead to a
forecast for stormy relations in the coming year.
Both China and Japan are increasing their military
presence in and around the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku
islands. Last week, Japanese fighter jets
confronted a Chinese surveillance plane in the
area. China's defense ministry promised to remain
"highly vigilant" in the contentious dispute.
Meanwhile, Japan's new Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe is promoting a more proactive Japanese
stance against Chinese territorial claims and
regional ambitions. Within days of his
inauguration, Abe was on the phone with the
leaders of Vietnam, Russia, India, Australia,
Indonesia, and Britain. All of these countries
(with the exception of longtime US-ally Britain)
surround China, and share concerns about China's
growing political, military, and economic clout.
Abe told reporters: "Japan-China relations are the
biggest challenge of the 21st century in the
fields of diplomacy and security … I will
reconstruct the relationship of trust of the
Japan-US alliance."[1]
Japan's new
proactive stance has enormous implications for US
policy in the region. A cornerstone of US
involvement in Asia is a mutual defense treaty
with Japan. The most recent Defense Authorization
Act, passed by the US Congress last week,
contained two clauses of the utmost importance to
Sino-American relations. One clause stipulated
that the United States does not take sides in the
territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku
Islands, but nevertheless acknowledges Japanese
control over the islands. Such language could
cause any clash over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands to
escalate into a full-blown shooting war between
Japan and America on one side and China on the
other. The escalating dispute over uninhabited
islands has the potential to start a war involving
the world's three largest economies.
The
other provision of the Defense Authorization Act
that has riled Beijing expresses congressional
support for the sale of advanced fighter jets to
Taiwan. Beijing views any weapons sales to Taiwan
as support for "the renegade province", and a
blatant violation of China's internal security.
This American political move, coming at a time of
increased Chinese tensions with Japan, has been
interpreted in China as a signal of US aggression.
It must be noted that the two clauses mentioned in
the Defense Authorization Act are not legally
binding, but rather express "the sense of
Congress". Nevertheless, the symbolism has not
been lost on China's leaders.
Two recent
editorials in China's state-run newspapers
expressed open anger towards the American moves. A
piece last week in China Daily condemned what it
called American interference in the region:
The US' meddling in the dispute over
the Diaoyu Islands is detrimental to regional
peace and stability, as it will only embolden
the increasingly rightist Japan…. The best
choice at this moment is for the two countries
to maintain the current good climate for
bilateral ties, rather than provoking each other
over sensitive issues. [2]
A more
recent editorial in the English language edition
of the People's Daily was even more forthright
regarding perceived US intentions against the
People's Republic of China:
America's lack of composure reflects
the complexity of China-US. relations. No matter
how China reiterates the path of peaceful
development and shows good will in practice, the
United States remains distrustful of China. The
United States has a tradition of creating
imaginary enemies, and China seems to be
qualified as its imaginary enemy from cultural,
historical, and social perspectives. However,
imaginary enemies are "imaginary" for a reason,
and it is unwise to translate strategic mistrust
into strategic confrontation. [3]
The
Chinese government consistently condemns US
"meddling" in the East China Sea island dispute
and the issue of arms sales to Taiwan because, in
the eyes of Beijing, these are not international
issues. Rather, they are matters pertaining to the
historically sensitive issue of Chinese
sovereignty. According to this worldview, America
has as much legitimate stake in these disputes as
China would have in a hypothetical territorial row
between the United States and Mexico. American
involvement in these issues is seen as an
unnecessary and belligerent attempt to sabotage
China's growing economic, political, and military
capabilities.
The reference to America's
"tradition of creating imaginary enemies" is
particularly telling. Unlike the supposed monolith
of global terrorism, or the old threat of
revolutionary worldwide communism, the potential
challenge that China poses to US dominance is very
real. The Chinese government is warning the
American leadership to be careful what they wish
for - an economically ascendant, militarily
motivated China that viewed itself as forced to
confront US global hegemony would be a rival of a
much greater magnitude than the United States has
ever faced.
Popular
pressures The confrontational political
rhetoric between the United States and the
People's Republic of China is increasingly
reflected in the opinion of the common people in
both countries. According to the Pew Global
Attitudes Project, only 43% of Chinese people view
the US favorably - down from 58%. [4]
Fully 26% of people in China view the
Sino-American relationship as one of "hostility",
up from merely 8% two years ago. No doubt these
figures are to a large degree influenced by the
rhetoric of Chinese state-controlled media.
However, US moves to deploy massive military
assets on China's shores and support for Japan
would be perceived as an aggressive stance no
matter the political system within China itself.
Meanwhile, the Pew Global Attitudes
Project has also found increased American
suspicions and worries about China. The last year
has seen an important shift from Americans
favoring "stronger relations with China" to
favoring "getting tougher with China". Economic
concerns - such as China's massive holdings of
American public debt and the loss of US jobs to
China - are the most highly cited American
concerns about China. Issues such as human rights
and China's growing military capabilities are
found in less than half of the US population.
Of course, increased US military
deployment in the Asia-Pacific cannot do much to
improve America's economy. While economic
stagnation and political deadlock threaten to lead
America over the edge of the "fiscal cliff",
China's macroeconomic indicators are surprisingly
robust. That is not to say that China is without
its own domestic problems. Issues of corruption
and growing impatience with domestic political
reform will be the main focus of China's new
leaders in the coming year.
A slowly
developing confrontational dynamic between the
United States and China should continue for the
foreseeable future. Barring any extreme
miscalculation in the East China Sea, all sides
will continue their posturing without the conflict
escalating into war. As the balance of power
shifts dramatically between the United States and
China, it is only natural that the Chinese will
seek to push back the boundaries of their sphere
of influence - at least to the areas that Beijing
claims a part of its integral
territory.
The potential unstable elements
of the Sino-American dynamic are the American
economy and the Chinese political structure. In
the event of a deep and prolonged fiscal and
economic crisis in America, expect the United
States to draw back its global military footprint.
While such a move may be politically difficult, it
may be increasingly unavoidable. A more realistic
positioning of US military forces could assuage
Chinese fears of encirclement, and actually
improve bilateral ties.
On the other hand,
the possibility of domestic political change in
China has the potential to suddenly push China and
the United States into regional - and perhaps
global - confrontation. China's leaders will only
seek military conflict in order to unite their
people in the event of major internal upheaval.
Even a managed process of reform to a system that
is more democratic would likely see China become
more assertive on the international stage.
2012 brought the US "pivot" towards Asia
and an unexpected escalation of the long-standing
territorial dispute in the East China Sea. 2013
may hold yet more policy surprises. Both powers
may be preoccupied with domestic concerns, but as
China continues its rush to overtake the United
States as the world's largest economy, expect the
unexpected.
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