China's short-lived North Korean
shift By Sunny Lee
BEIJING - Observers have been scratching
their heads over what they consider to be China's
short-lived "about-face" on North Korea. After
North Korea announced that it would launch a
rocket late last year, China responded with a
strong warning. But it didn't last long. China
soon pedaled back to its "default position" after
the actual launch on December 12, shielding North
Korea from the international outcry as usual.
What observers are trying to understand is
not China's usual protective posture about North
Korea, but the initial strong warning prior to the
the launch.
"China's reaction was quite
stern compared to what we had
usually come to expect from
it," observed Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, the
International Crisis Group's North East Asia
Project Director and China Adviser.
The
shift in attitude was so unusual that South
Korea's JoongAng Ilbo daily newspaper on December
7 even declared: "China's attitude (on North
Korea) has visibly changed." The newspaper carried
an arresting title: "Xi Jinping's change: 'North
Korea, you've got to behave'." The newspaper
mistakenly thought that China's new leader Xi
Jinping decided to reign in Pyongyang's wayward
nuclear libido.
Indeed, some South Korean
media outlets judged that the Chinese new leader
Xi Jinping would turn out to be a strong reformer
and expected that once Xi would take over the
Chinese leadership, he would also lead North Korea
on the path for reform and opening up - similar to
China's own experience.
But such a hope
didn't materialize. The Chinese foreign ministry
soon fell back into its default position of
putting up a protective shield for Pyongyang,
toning down international calls for strong
punitive measures. The ministry spokesman told
reporters on December 12 that the UN Security
Council's reaction to Pyongyang's rocket launch
should be "prudent, moderate" and conducive to
maintaining peace and stability of the Korean
Peninsula so as to "avoid further escalation of
the situation". That was a familiar line form
China. After the sinking of the South's
Cheonan naval vessel in 2010, for which
North Korea was blamed, China exasperated Seoul by
calling for "calm on both sides of the two
Koreas".
"At the end of the day, China
will only go so far, because it prioritizes
stability over denuclearization on the Korean
Peninsula," Kleine-Ahlbrandt said.
Given
China's track record, that's understandable. But
how can China's initial strong warning to North
Korea be explained? Just like a blip on the radar
screen, did China display a sudden mood swing on
North Korea, which then quickly disappeared like a
UFO? Even though it was a quick move, it was also
prominent enough that observers didn't miss it and
media outlets took it as a significant gesture.
Understanding the riddle is important
because it possibly offers a clue to the murky
Chinese decision making process on North Korea and
the players involved.
According to a
person who is familiar with the intrigue, China's
short-lived tough posture on North Korea was sort
of a "personal favor" by Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao to US President Barack Obama. Obama and Wen
met in Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia, on
November 20, on the sidelines of the East Asia
Summit gathering.
"At that time, Obama
told the Chinese Premier Wen that North Korea
would likely to launch a rocket and asked Wen to
exercise pressure [on North Korea]," said the
well-placed source, seeking the customary
anonymity attached to discussing diplomatic
affairs.
Surprisingly, Wen agreed. "That's
why China's response this time to the North Korean
rocket launch was different," the source said,
denoting the importance of personal ties in
dealing with the Chinese leadership.
It is
not clear in what context Obama asked the favor to
Wen. It may have been either while the two were
chatting or during their more official bilateral
meeting, which they held on the sidelines of the
Asian gathering.
What is not disputed is
that a personal chemistry between Obama and Wen
Jiaobao played a role, according to the source.
China has its characteristic relationship network
mojo, called guanxi. A good guanxi,
based on personal affinity and trust, can do
wonders. It can lead to business contract, for
example. In this case, a good guanxi with
the Chinese leadership made "the blip on the radar
screen" in the Chinese posture on North Korea.
The international community has been
calling on China to contain North Korea's
provocations for years. China is the only country
that has regular high-level talks with North
Korea, and it is also Pyongyang's long-time
enabler, providing Pyongyang with food and energy
aid.
But when it comes to the fundamental
shift in China's policy on North Korea, it is not
just a matter between the rival two Koreas but
more to do with competing strategies between
Washington and Beijing in East Asia.
Against the backdrop of America's
deepening military and security engagement in the
Asia-Pacific, often indicated as the "pivot to
Asia", China has been increasingly raising its
eyebrows at the military alliance Seoul has with
Washington. Simply put, China is suspicious
whether South Korea's defense pact with the US is
not just against North Korea, but also against
China. With that, analysts believe that China's
tendency to see North Korea as a "buffer zone"
against the US and its allies in East Asia, will
persist.
Sunny Lee
(sleethenational@gmail.com) is a Seoul-born
columnist and journalist, who follows on North
Korea and China.
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