Hagel cordial, but outdated on
China By Brendan O'Reilly
News of Chuck Hagel's nomination to
Secretary of Defense has been warmly received in
China. Hagel, like most of the contemporary
leadership of the American military, favors closer
engagement with his counterparts in the People's
Liberation Army. China's top leadership has
interpreted Hagel's recent public statements as
reassuring signals of American cordiality.
But Hagel has also displayed a significant
degree of misunderstanding of China's contemporary
international position. As US forces focus on
Asian deployments, the military aspect of
Sino-American ties is an
increasingly vital facet of the world's most
important and dynamic bilateral relationship.
The English-language China Daily was quick
to laud the Obama administration's nomination. A
story entitled "Hagel looks ready to work with
China" features numerous reassuring statements by
Hagel regarding China's rise. The story
furthermore quoted Shen Dingli, a specialist on
international relations at Fudan University,
praising the former Republican Senator from
Nebraska: "I see Chuck Hagel is a good candidate.
He had the honesty to oppose the Iraq War - a
moderate and respectful Republican." [1]
China's optimism regarding Hagel stems
primarily from the public record of the former
senator. Hagel is known for candidly discussing
the most pressing issues of American foreign
policy. When addressing the subject of China's
rise, Hagel has been particularly sanguine for an
American politician:
"China is going to emerge and grow.
It should; we should welcome that. They're going
to be competitors, they are now, as are India,
Brazil and other nations. That's OK. Trade,
exchanges, relationships, common interests; all
those emerging nations and economic, and
strengths are all captive to basically the same
kinds of things: stability, security, energy
sources, resources, people. Everything that we
have to have in our country to prosper, so do
the Chinese." [2]
Hagel's public
rhetoric towards China is balanced to the point of
being almost sympathetic. He recognizes the
primarily economic motivations of China's people
and leaders. Furthermore, Hagel has indirectly
acknowledged the development of an increasingly
multipolar world, and he apparently doesn't view
this trend as a dire threat to American security.
However, Hagel's moderate attitude towards
China is not only based on a rational
understanding of Chinese motives. Hagel, like much
of the American political class, has serious
doubts about China's ability (or perhaps
motivation) to challenge America's preeminent
global role:
"The Chinese have bigger problems
though. They've got huge problems, starting with
the fact that they've got 1.3 billion people,
and hundreds of millions of them live in abject
poverty. That means jobs, that means all the
rest. They've got energy issues they're going to
be living with. They are a communist,
authoritarian, opaque government. There's no
transparency. What they have and what they don't
have, we're not quite sure. They've made
tremendous strides. They are a great power
today, and they going to continue to be a great
power - and that's okay. But we shouldn't cower
in the wake of that, or we shouldn't be
concerned that they're going to take our place
in the world." [3]
While acknowledging
China's emergence as a "great power", Hagel
highlighted the internal challenges facing the
Chinese leadership. Such challenges are indeed
very real, and pose a potential threat to China's
rise as a global superpower. Whether these
internal difficulties can slow or even stop
China's recent momentum remains to be seen.
However, Hagel's reassurance that China
won't "take our place in the world" is almost
certainly accurate. Both historically and
contemporarily, China has had little appetite for
costly foreign military deployments and
adventurism. If and when China supplants the
United States as the Earth's most powerful nation,
the Middle Kingdom is likely to exercise its power
in a manner much different from the recent ways of
Uncle Sam.
Dovish generals and
political hawks Increased and amicable ties
between China and the United States have been a
consistent goal of America's military brass for
some time. In September, outgoing Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta met his Chinese counterpart
Liang Guanlie in Beijing for high-level military
talks. Secretary Panetta bluntly stated: "We won't
achieve security and prosperity in the 21st
century without a constructive US-China
relationship, including a stronger
military-to-military relationship". This
cooperative declaration was mirrored by the words
of Chinese Defense Minister Liang, who called on
the two sides to "promote a new type of military
relations featuring equality, reciprocity and
win-win cooperation in an active and pragmatic
way". [4]
Friendly declarations from
America's military leaders are strongly contrasted
by the harsh rhetoric of elected officials. During
the recent presidential campaign, Mitt Romney
promised to "crack down" on China, while President
Obama accused his Republican rival of having
"invested in companies that were pioneers of
outsourcing to China". More recently, Senator John
Cornyn of Texas condemned the Obama administration
for refusing to sell a fleet of F-16 fighter jets
to Taipei, saying "capitulation to communist China
by the Obama administration marks a sad day in
American foreign policy, and it represents a slap
in the face to a strong ally and longtime friend."
[5]
China's continuing rise is emerging as
an important political issue in the United States.
China's economic expansion is often used as a
scapegoat for America's deep economic woes.
However, there is also increasing discourse from
elected representatives regarding the potential
strategic threat that China poses to American
dominance.
Publicly, the Pentagon's top
brass are much more accommodating towards China.
There are several reasons for this interesting
dichotomy. First, America's military leadership is
not directly accountable to the American
electorate, and is therefore somewhat sheltered
from popular fears of a rising China.
More
importantly, it will be members of the military
themselves who will face the dire consequences of
any open conflict between the United States and
China. Chuck Hagel is a Vietnam combat veteran,
and he knows firsthand the horror and tragedy of
war. US armed forces are pivoting towards Asia as
longstanding territorial disputes heat up off
China's shores. It will be increasingly vital for
the Chinese and American armed forces to maintain
constant communication to avoid any accidental
clashes. A miscalculation by either side could
lead to a dangerously volatile situation.
A skewed vision While Hagel's
nomination has been welcomed in China, and the two
sides will work to improve their military
relations, Hagel has also revealed some outdated
thinking regarding the current position of the two
powers. While touting the advantages of the United
States, Hagel said:
"We have the largest, but most
importantly, the most flexible and agile economy
in the world. People are not trying to get into
China, they're trying to get out of China. The
United States is the only great country where
people are trying to get into to this country
for obvious reasons."
While China is
still overall a source of outward migration,
Hagel's blanket assertion that "people are not
trying to get in to China" is significantly
flawed. China is increasingly hosting economic
migrants from all over the world. Every year, tens
of thousands of undocumented Vietnamese,
Cambodian, and Burmese workers cross into China's
southern provinces in search of higher wages. A
growing trend sees Vietnamese brides marrying
Chinese men to enjoy a more materially comfortable
life in the Middle Kingdom. In a single city in
China - coastal Guangzhou - there are up to
200,000 Africans living, working, and doing
business.
By no means do all of the
foreigners seeking opportunity in China come from
relatively impoverished countries. More than
100,000 native English speakers work as language
teachers in China. Many of these instructors are
essentially economic migrants from the United
States - recent college graduates who left the
unpromising job market in America to pursue
opportunity in China's booming cities. Meanwhile,
millions of Mexican migrants have left the United
States in recent years and returned to their
native land as the American economy continues to
falter. [6]
While Chuck Hagel has been
welcomed in China for his friendly rhetoric, his
words have also revealed a fundamental
misconception of contemporary China. The military
leadership of the United States will continue to
seek better lines of communication with the
Chinese armed forces, as the two powers will
increasingly be in potentially dangerous contact
off China's shores. However, if American leaders -
both military and civilian - are serious about
maintaining America's global position, they would
be wise to analyze their main competitor in a
manner that disposes of outdated assumptions.
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