SPEAKING
FREELY China eroding US
dominance By Donald Alford
Weadon Jr
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
The Chinese National
Offshore Oil Corporation's recent attempted
acquisition of Unocal raised American fears that
China could challenge American energy security.
Inside the beltway, conventional wisdom said
spiking such Chinese deals would make the United
States safer. Torpedoed by concerted lobbying
by
energy firms and administration China hawks, the
deal was replaced when, only days later, the
Chinese acquired PetroKazakhstan of Calgary for
over US$4 billion in cash, a fateful transaction
which barely merited ink in the US media.
Rather than making America safer, the
Unocal affair only increased China's incentive to
seek and bolster reliable energy supplies through
bilateral trade on a global scale at America's
expense. Other energy deals are being reported
weekly.
As hard as China tries to
diversify away from the Middle East, economic
considerations dictate that it must come back to
the Gulf, still the world's lowest-cost oil
producer. Beijing recognizes that
the preponderance of oil and natural gas come from
this strategic area, hence providing increased
incentives to expand its influence there, a
penetration already broader than Washington
pundits might think.
Not recognizing
spheres of influence, China is rapidly expanding
ties throughout the Arabian peninsula, Iran and
the Levant. Bilateral energy swaps for
goods/services will grow, eroding US commercial
advantage in many markets currently considered
"locked" for US or Western goods and technology.
Chinese companies are rapidly outgrowing
their image as a source of cheap products, and are
threatening the reputation of the US, Western
European and West Asian capitals as the "go-to"
resource for higher-end technology and large scale
project support. For consumers of high technology
goods, China will soon be able to meet virtually
any civilian or military need as its productive
capacity serves more and more foreign companies,
with China even purchasing control of technology
market leaders, such as the purchase of IBM's
laptop business by Lenovo.
Many Western
companies have already opened research and
development facilities in China, and China is
seeking to acquire Western companies with
significant consumer quality identification (for
example, Haier's attempted purchase of Maytag). In
China, claimed abuses of intellectual property
rights have actually expanded duplication into a
guild-like methodology for industrial training and
growth. In the future, few Western technologies
will remain unmatched by China in both the
commercial and military spheres.
In the
military sphere, Chinese influence is dismissed by
noting the relative weakness of its naval forces.
But littoral diplomacy is supplanting a blue-water
navy: China, like a latter-day Alfred Thayer Mahan
(the renowned 19th century American geostrategist
and naval power advocate), is shaping key basing
agreements along the oil shipping-sea-lanes
between China and the Gulf. Those who assert that
Chinese military technology is poor should take
note that the US Army has procured Chinese night
vision equipment for the Iraqi Army in lieu of US
gear.
Furthermore, the Chinese understand
leverage in the trade equation on all levels, and
they have utilized it to bolster their trade
development in the Middle East, whether it be
through sophisticated financial guarantees or
petroleum-based finance. In the Gulf, Chinese
companies are slowly translating growing trade
relations into a concrete presence and regional
political influence.
Whether it is
projects to showcase Chinese products or services,
or significant infrastructure projects which
require sophisticated design and construction
capabilities (such as ports or airports), the
Chinese are eager to offer an alternative to
Western giants. The common ground that China and
the Gulf nations have found in trade and economics
inevitably is spilling over into a perception of
shared strategic interests. China's export-led
growth, and its ability to provide jobs for its
people, turns on access to ever-increasing
quantities of energy.
What is the best
metaphor for this situation, which lacks both the
linearity of checkers and the exquisite dynamism
of chess? Perhaps it is the national game of China
- wei ch'i or "Go" - where control of the
board is the crucial objective and the timeline is
slow and deliberate. As in this 4,000-year-old
board game, China is using economic wedge
maneuvers to expand its financial influence,
harden its economic achievements into political
interests, and ultimately achieve control of the
"board". Note how a string of Chinese actions
defending Iran at the UN dovetailed with a series
of large China-Iran energy deals.
Energy
and economic engagement with the developing world
are not the only diplomatic tools at China's
command. China is now capable of unilateral
action, with its UN veto a sheathed sword against
US action. American influence as has been
traditionally exerted will be a thing of the past
unless China's goals are understood, and they are
effectively engaged.
Donald
Weadon, an international lawyer, was among the
first US lawyers to practice in China. He studied
with Harvard in Iran, has practiced throughout
Asia and the Gulf and lives in Washington, DC. He can
be reached at dweadon@aol.com
(Copyright 2005 Donald
Alford Weadon Jr)
Speaking Freely
is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
