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    China Business
     Feb 28, 2006
Boeing, China see huge aircraft demand

BEIJING - Of the 863 civil planes operating in China as of November 2005, 534 were built by Boeing of the United States, a senior Chinese civil-aviation executive said recently.

"Calculated according to the catalogue price, China has spent nearly US$40 billion on purchasing planes from the United



States," Li Jiaxiang, president of the China National Aviation Holding Co, said at the China-US Business Forum.

He said growth in China's civil-aviation industry has contributed tremendously to the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.

"The greatest beneficiary is the US plane-manufacturing business," said Li. "China purchases a large number of plane engines, aero-electric equipment, accessories and advanced [navigation] devices each year and enjoys maintenance services provided by US companies."

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of employees of China's airplane companies have received various forms of professional training in the United States, which has also brought more profit to the US aviation industry, Li noted. "The growth of China's civil aviation [sector] has provided hundreds of thousands job opportunities to the US aviation industry, which proves that the two nations have win-win economic and trade relations," said Li.

Last year alone, China's airline companies ordered 60 B-787 aircraft and 70 B-737s, with a total price of more than $11 billion, ranking 2005 as China's largest aircraft-purchasing year ever. China will need more than 2,600 new planes in the next 20 years, costing more than $213 billion, according to the latest analysis by Boeing. Gao Hongfeng, deputy director general of China's General Administration of Civil Aviation (CAAC), has confirmed that the country will purchase more than 100 airliners each year from 2006 to 2010.

Experts predict that China will see an annual increase of more than 22 million middle-class consumers, and will have become the largest tourist-destination country and the fourth-largest source of tourists globally by 2020, with the number of Chinese traveling abroad reaching 100 million.

Li said the huge potential consumption by Chinese tourists in the United States will be conducive to narrowing the Sino-US trade deficit. China and the US should promote bilateral economic and trade ties under an effective communication mechanism, Li said, and airline companies of both countries should strengthen cooperation by investing and holding shares in each other.

New aircraft orders called in line with demand
At a press conference in Beijing recently, Gao refuted suggestions that China's rapid introduction of airliners might outgrow demand, saying that buying about 100 a year for the next five years was "suitable".

"China will purchase more than 100 aircraft each year in the 11th Five-Year Plan period," 2006-10, he said. Ordering airliners is a long-term procedure, with some deliveries taking place more than 10 years, Gao said. "Market needs and flight safety are taken into account," he said.

China contracted to buy 442 airliners last year from Boeing and European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, with deliveries spread out over several years. But some experts have criticized the size of the order, saying it exceeded actual needs.

Qiu Lianzhong, a senior expert at a Beijing-based civil-aviation research center, said the rapid expansion of China's air fleet might entail some risk.

"The surging cost of fuel and pilot training leave little room for profits," Qiu said. "Airline companies will have to raise airfares or collect fuel surcharges to make more profit, which might discourage people from flying." On the other hand, if air fleets keep expanding, vicious competition will be unavoidable, leading to rapid growth of the industry but with little profit or even losses.

The robust market has propelled airline companies such as Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines to expand their fleets. According to CAAC statistics, about 138 million people flew in mainland China last year, up 105% from 2000. Traffic is expected to double again by 2010 for both passengers and cargo, Gao said.

He also noted: "We will face a lot of challenges in training pilots, especially captains, for these airplanes." At the end of 2005, the Chinese mainland had 863 airplanes, but the number of pilots was only about 11,000. Industry insiders say the crew-to-aircraft ratio is far lower than the industry norm. Already, state-owned Air China has announced plans to recruit its first foreign pilots to cope with staff shortages.

Gao said the CAAC, as the industry regulator, set strict requirements on airline companies with respect to pilot training, maintenance and managerial staff to ensure safe operations.

"If the expansion of the fleet conflicts with flight safety, we must put safety first," he said. With more than 5,000 flights every day now in the country, there are more than 11,000 takeoffs and landings. Therefore, the pressure on safety is very high, the vice director said.

(Asia Pulse/XIC)


Boeing set to establish Shanghai base (Dec 21, '05)

Cathay Pacific puts its trust in Boeing
(Dec 3, '05)

China inks $4bn deal to buy 70 Boeing aircraft
(Nov 22, '05)

Jade Cargo buys six Boeing freighters
(Sep 21, '05)

 
 



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