China embraces the
atom By Frederick W Stakelbeck
Jr
With domestic energy demand expected to
increase steadily over the next several decades
and with a precipitous decline in domestic
production from existing oil and natural-gas
fields, China finds itself at an unavoidable
"energy crossroads" that will define its growth,
influence and prosperity for years to come.
Recognizing the potential consequences
associated with any protracted energy shortage,
Beijing has embraced nuclear power
as a
solution. According to the China National Nuclear
Corp (CNNC), the government body responsible for
much of the country's nuclear-power program, China
plans to invest US$48 billion to build 30 nuclear
reactors by 2020. Currently, the country has nine
reactors in operation with another two under
construction at a combined cost of $3.2 billion.
"Nuclear-power development is a must for
China, especially in the coastal areas," said Shen
Wenquan, vice chairman of the Committee for
Science and Technology for CNNC.
The US
Department of Energy's Energy Information
Administration (EIA) predicts China's annual
nuclear-energy consumption could rise to 66
billion kilowatt-hours in 2010, up dramatically
from 16 billion kWh in 2000. In addition, EIA
predicts the country's nuclear electricity
consumption will rise to 129 billion kWh by 2015
and 142 billion kWh by 2020, surpassing both
Canada and Russia. Striking a balance between
energy demand and supply will be a key objective
for Beijing's nuclear program moving forward.
The country's 11th Five-Year Plan
(2006-10) supports progress in the areas of
nuclear-power-plant development and construction.
As a result, more than 16 Chinese provinces,
regions and municipalities have already announced
plans to participate in nuclear-power-plant
construction. CNNC president Kang Rixin recently
noted that this construction boom could increase
the amount of nuclear power generated from 2% of
the country's total energy capacity to 6% by 2010,
with as many as 32 additional reactors built
within the next 15 years.
Several factors
have encouraged Beijing to pursue nuclear energy.
First, chronic electricity shortages of 35 million
kW in 2004 and 25 million kW in 2005 forced
Beijing to recognize the country's deteriorating
energy situation. Second, continuing difficulties
with the Chinese coal-mining industry, the
country's main energy source, have become
inescapable. Coal produces 74% of China's energy;
however, the industry is beset by dangerous safety
issues, with more than 6,000 killed in 2005 in
mining-related accidents. In addition, the
negative environmental impact of greenhouse gases
makes coal an increasingly unattractive energy
alternative.
Third, China's growing
reliance on foreign oil and liquefied natural gas
(LNG) has placed the country in a precarious
position. For China, dependence on oil means
dependence on the Middle East - a complex and
potentially explosive region that currently
provides 60% of the country's oil imports.
Predictions by some industry experts that China
will import more oil than the United States within
the next two decades has raised fears in Beijing
that oil could control the country's destiny,
making the identification and development of
alternative energy sources a key priority.
Fourth, the skyrocketing cost of building
the country's oil and LNG infrastructure has
raised concerns in Beijing. Intricate
pipeline-construction agreements involving foreign
countries; the construction of a fleet of modern
LNG carriers and updated and expanded railroad
systems; and the construction of large transport
terminals capable of handling huge quantities of
oil and LNG continue to place an enormous
financial burden on the country.
Zhang
Guobao, vice minister in charge of the National
Reform and Development Commission (NRDC), noted
recently that China's tight power squeeze could
ease somewhat this year as new nuclear plants come
online. Beijing has also announced that it will
continue its prospecting efforts in the
oil-and-gas-bearing basins in Bohai Bay, Songliao,
Tarim and Ordus, while coal exploration will
continue in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Shandong and Anhui provinces.
A key component of China's energy program
is the development of alternative nuclear power
technologies. This year, a $370 million,
190-megawatt nuclear plant using "pebble-bed
technology" is expected to begin construction.
Built by China Huaneng Group, parent of Huaneng
Power International Inc, the power plant will use
new high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor
technology instead of the pressurized-water
technology.
Pebble-bed technology is
intended to address the safety issues of older
reactor technologies; it is theoretically
impossible for a pebble-bed reactor to melt down,
since even if all safety devices were shut off and
staff literally left the site, the reactor could
not achieve a high enough temperature to melt its
own materials, and therefore would simply cool
slowly while remaining physically undamaged.
Opponents of the new technology, such as
Liu Wei, vice president of the Beijing Institute of
Nuclear Engineering, say it is cost-prohibitive -
$500 a kilowatt more than other commercially
available technologies. Other critics have noted
that pebble-bed technology can only be used in
reactors of less than 300MW, making it
incompatible with a majority of China's new
reactors, which are 1,000MW or more. However,
pebble-bed advocates suggest multiple reactor
units at the same site as a way of circumventing
this shortcoming.
In another move designed
to develop alternative energy technologies, China
has partnered with the United States, the European
Union, Russia, South Korea, India and Japan to
experiment with nuclear fusion. Fusion reactions,
distinct from the fission reactions that power all
operational nuclear reactors today, produce energy
by fusing lighter atomic nuclei together into
heavier ones at extremely high temperatures and
pressures.
"Fusion will be the final way
out for the future," said Shen Wenquan of CNNC.
But fusion research has been conducted for decades
at enormous cost, and while technical progress has
been made, no practical prototype of an
operational fusion reactor has been produced so
far.
To power its new generation of
nuclear power plants, China will need enormous
amounts of uranium from a diverse pool of
providers. The country's known resources of 70,000
tonnes of uranium, from several domestic uranium
mines, is sufficient to meet only short-term
needs. The State Council announced last month that
uranium prospecting will be emphasized, including
additional domestic exploration and mining.
Also last month, it was reported that
Beijing would consider the joint development of
uranium mines with foreign countries as a possible
solution to its supply problems. Shen said, "If
there's a possibility of developing these
resources through [a] joint venture, then we can
discuss that also."
Although China has
agreements with Kazakhstan, Russia and Nambia,
further talks have commenced with Australia and
Canada to fuel the country's expected
nuclear-reactor base.
China's push toward
nuclear power has attracted the attention of the
international nuclear-power industry, with
hundreds of well-known companies such as US-based,
UK-owned Westinghouse, France's Areva and Russia's
AtomStroyExport battling for a chance to
participate in reactor construction and design.
For its part, the US has voiced its
support of China's efforts to develop a clean and
safe nuclear-power industry. "The US wants to be
part of such a rapidly growing nuclear-power-plant
program," said one US diplomat.
The US
Nuclear Regulatory Commission has already given
its approval for the export of nuclear equipment
and engineering services, as well as fuel and
generating units to China. The US Commerce
Department and the US Embassy in Beijing have
approached the Chinese government to promote a
pending bid by Westinghouse for the construction
of four 1,000MW nuclear power facilities. Last
month, the Export and Import Bank of the United
States approved $5 billion in loans to support the
bid.
Although Beijing's efforts to address
its emerging energy needs have received a positive
response from many observers, several questions
remain unanswered concerning the nuclear program.
Under even the most optimistic projections, a 2-4%
increase in the country's overall power capacity
over a 15-year period as a result of
nuclear-power-plant construction will not be
nearly enough to cover expected increases in
residential and commercial energy demand.
In addition, some members of the
scientific community have questioned the benefits
associated with nuclear power, when the risks of
catastrophic failures, waste disposal and
terrorism are considered.
"We don't have a
good plan for dealing with spent fuel, and we
don't have a very good emergency plan for dealing
with [a] catastrophe," admitted Wang Yi, a
nuclear-energy expert at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences in Beijing.
With
energy-consumption levels expected to reach those
of the US by 2025 and dependence on foreign energy
sources accelerating by the day, Beijing is in
need of a long-term remedy to its energy ills -
nuclear power may or may not provide such a
remedy. Whatever the answer to China's energy
needs, it should be pursued with caution, keeping
in mind the delicate balance between the country's
future energy needs and the possible human and
environmental costs associated with achieving
energy autonomy.
Frederick W
Stakelbeck Jr is an expert on bilateral and
trilateral alliances as they relate to China
foreign policy. His writings address the
implications of China's emerging regional and
global strategic influence and relationships upon
US national security. Comments can be forwarded
tofrederick.stakelbeck@verizon.net.
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2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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