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    China Business
     Jun 19, 2009
Page 2 of 2
OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA, Part 5
Group of Two the wrong number
By Henry C K Liu

Part 1: The song stays the same
Part 2: A dangerous balance
Part 3: The New Deal dollar and the Obama dollar
Part 4: Brzezinski's G-2 grand strategy

EurAsEC, created on October 10, 2000, in Kazakhstan's capital Astana by presidents Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Askas Akayev of Kyrgyzstan, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Emomalia Rakhmonov of Tajikistan, originated from the Commonwealth of Independent States custom union between Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan created on March 29, 1996. The treaty on the establishment of the EurAsEC was subsequently signed on October 7, 2005, with

 

Uzbekistan joining. Common Economic Space is expected to be launched on January 1, 2010.

The Organization of Central Asian Cooperation (OCAC) was an international organization composed of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia. Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine had observer status. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmanistan and Uzbekistan formed the OCAC in 1991 as Central Asian Commonwealth (CAC). The organization continued after 1994 as Central Asian Economic Union (CAEU), in which Tajikistan and Turkmenistan did not participate. In 1998 it became Central Asian Economic Cooperation (CAEC), which marked the return of Tajikistan. On February 28, 2002 it was renamed to its current name OCAC.

Russia joined OCAC on May 28, 2004, on the initiative of Uzbekistan. In October, 2005 Uzbekistan applied for membership in EurAsEC. OCAC de facto dissolved on January 25, 2006, when Uzbekistan joined EurAsEC. On November 12, 2008, Uzbekistan temporarily suspended its membership in EurAsEC.

The creation of a common economic space between the CIS countries of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, was agreed in principle after a meeting in Moscow on February 23, 2003. The Common Economic Space would involve a supranational commission on trade and tariffs that would be based in Kiev, would initially be headed by a representative of Kazakhstan, and would not be subordinate to the governments of the four nations. The ultimate goal would be a regional organization that would be open for other countries to join as well, and could eventually lead even to a single currency.

On May 22, 2003, the Ukrainian parliament voted 266 to 51 in favor of the joint economic space. However, the Orange revolution of 2004 that brought to power Viktor Yushchenko dealt a significant blow against the project. Yushchenko has shown renewed interest in Ukrainian membership in the European Union, and such membership would be incompatible with the envisioned common economic space.

The Paris summit of September 2008, hosted by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and president-in-office of the European Council, attended by Javier Solana, High Representative of the EU for common foreign and security policy and other high ranking officials from Brussels, was a major event in the EU-Ukraine bilateral relations.

Russian President Dmotry Medvedev has indicated that the creation of a common economic space for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus may be launched on January 1, 2010. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on December 10, 2008 that Moscow is ready to build a common economic space with both Europe and the United States on a basis of equality.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has proposed the creation of a common noncash currency called yevrav for the community. This would help insulate the countries from the dollar global economic crisis.

In May 2007, the CSTO secretary-general Nikolai Bordyyuzha suggested Iran could join the CSTO saying, "The CSTO is an open organization. If Iran applies in accordance with our charter, we will consider the application." If Iran joined it would be the first state outside the former Soviet Union to become a member of the organization.

On October 6, 2007, CSTO members agreed to a major expansion of the organization that would create a CSTO peacekeeping force that could deploy under a UN mandate or without one in its member states. The expansion would also allow all members to purchase Russian weapons at the same price as Russia. CSTO signed an agreement with the SCO, in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, to broaden cooperation on issues such as security, crime, and drug trafficking.

On August 29, 2008, Russia announced it would seek CSTO recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which touched off a war between Russia and Georgia. Three days before, on August 26, Russia recognized the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The CST was set to last for a five-year period unless extended. On April 2, 1999, only six members of the CST signed a protocol renewing the treaty for another five year period - Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekstan refused to sign and withdrew from the treaty. At the same time Uzbekistan joined the GUAM group, established in 1997 by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbijian and Moldova, changing the name to GUUAM group and largely seen as intending to counter Russian influence in the region.

In the years following the signing of its charter, the GUAM grouping was generally considered to have stagnated. During 2005, the CSTO partners conducted some common military exercises. In 2005, Uzbekistan withdrew from GUAM and joined the CSTO in 2006 in order to seek closer ties with Russia.

In June 2007, Kyrgyzstan assumed the rotating CSTO presidency, and in October 2007 the CSTO signed an agreement with the SCO, in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, to broaden cooperation on issues such as security, crime, and drug trafficking.

On October 6, 2007, CSTO members agreed to a major expansion of the organization that would create a CSTO peacekeeping force that could deploy under a UN mandate or without one in its member states. The expansion would also allow all members to purchase Russian weapons at the same price as Russia.

On August 29, 2008, Russia announced it would seek CSTO recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Three days before, on August 26, Russia recognized the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

On February 4, 2009, Medvedev announced that the rapid military reaction-force that would be deployed during a military aggression against a CSTO member would be "just as good as comparable NATO forces". He added that Russia would be ready to contribute a division and a brigade.

SCO economic cooperation
All SCO members except China are also members of the EurAsEC. A Framework Agreement to enhance economic cooperation was signed by the SCO member states on 23 September 2003. At the same meeting Chinese Premier Wen Jaibao proposed a long-term objective to establish a free-trade area in the SCO, while other more immediate measures would be taken to improve the flow of goods in the region. A follow up plan with 100 specific actions was signed one year later, on September 23, 2004.

On October 26, 2005, at the Moscow Summit of the SCO, the secretary general of the organization said the SCO will prioritise joint energy projects; including the oil and gas sector, the exploration of new hydrocarbon reserves, and joint use of water resources. The creation of an Inter-bank SCO Council was also agreed upon at that summit in order to fund future joint projects. The first meeting of the SCO Interbank Association was held in Beijing on February 21-22, 2006.

On 30 November 2006, at an international conference: The SCO: Results and Perspectives, held in Almaty, the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia is developing plans for an SCO "Energy Club". The need for this "club" was reiterated by Moscow at an SCO summit in November 2007. Other SCO members, however, have not committed themselves to the idea. The August 28, 2008 summit issued a statement that read: "Against the backdrop of a slowdown in the growth of world economy pursuing a responsible currency and financial policy, control over the capital flowing, ensuring food and energy security have been gaining special significance."

In the St Petersburg International Economic Forum held on June 5-6, 2009, the joint response of SCO members to the ongoing financial crisis, and the potential restructuring of the global financial and economic system, were the key topics of discussion. Panel members also noted the importance of development cooperation within the SCO, and interbank links between SCO member countries to finance key joint projects.

Specifically:
SCO countries have not escaped the consequences of the global financial crisis. Member countries need to consider the development and implementation of new economic and financial market regulations that differ from the principals established at Bretton Woods. It was noted that SCO members should implement joint efforts to handle the global financial crisis, and coordinate efforts to maintain trade relations at pre-crisis levels.

Representatives of SCO member countries confirmed that they plan to transform the SCO into a new economic structure with management bodies on top of regional governments. The SCO, it was acknowledged, remains a forum for discussion and the development of joint projects in various areas including medicine, education, logistics and insurance. SCO members plan to accelerate cooperation with observer countries in the organization, including India and Iran.

SCO members are considering establishing an energy club to intensify dialogue in the spheres of energy and water reserves. Several SCO members have significant energy reserves, while a growing number of member countries - particularly in Central Asia - face potential water and energy deficits.

The development of a modern logistics network is vitally important for SCO member countries. The members are currently focused on creating a multinational logistics system (project E40), which envisages the establishment of several logistics centres on the territory of SCO members. Notably, several SCO countries have no access to seaport infrastructure.

The key task is to maintain stability in the SCO region, but this cannot be achieved without an adequate financial and economic base. The SCO interbank association plans to become more closely involved in financing projects oriented towards all six SCO members. It was confirmed that the SCO's upcoming summit in Yekaterinburg will include a detailed presentation on progress in this regard.

Participants noted significant progress on various projects in the financial sphere among SCO members. EuroAsia Development Bank, created by Russia and Kazakhstan to invest in infrastructure projects, with $1billion under management, is being funded by Russian (Renaissance Capital), Kazakh (Samruk-Kazyna) and international (Macquarie Capital) financial institutions. Representatives of SCO member countries highlighted the important role of public-private partnerships several times during the discussion.

China is a key SCO member. It was acknowledged that the Chinese economy has demonstrated its ability to absorb crisis threats, and the role of the Chinese economy is strengthening within the global framework. SCO member countries, it was acknowledged, may benefit from the Chinese experience, and Chinese officials confirmed their willingness to share this experience and support SCO member countries.
SCO and BRIC
Medvedev invited Chinese President Hu Jintao to pay a state visit to Russia in Moscow followed by state visits to Slovakia and Croatia from June 18 to June 20, after attending the ninth annual summit of the SCO June 14-18 in Yekaterinburg. SCO leaders were expected to discuss counter-measures for tackling the financial crisis as well as expanding inter-member economic cooperation.

During the visit to Yekaterinburg, Hu attended the first meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders.The term, BRIC, was coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in 2003. BRICs account for 42% of the world's population, 14.6% of global Gross domestic product (GDP) and 12.8% of the global trade volume in 2008. The first meeting of BRIC leaders covered a range of issues including a new global financial system, the current financial crisis, energy cooperation and environmental protection.

Next: Commonwealth of Independent States and SCO

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