COMMENT
Macau progress leaves out politics
By Muhammad Cohen
MACAU - In the nearly 10 years since Portugal left the then-sleepy Macau, the
former enclave has made stunning economic progress. As a special administrative
region of the People's Republic of China, with a high degree of autonomy under
the "one country-two systems" principle, Macau's per capita gross domestic
product (GDP) has nearly tripled as billions of dollars of mainly foreign
investment in new resorts has made it the world's leading gambling destination.
Amid this extraordinary advancement, Macau's political processes have
regressed. After a decade of Macau people ruling Macau for the first time in
450 years, the city's apparent response is, "No, thank you," as the select few
declare satisfaction with
their lot even as the public at large are caught up in frustration and fear.
Economic development has focused on the big players while Macau's majority get
little but scraps, a pattern seen even more sharply in politics in this city of
550,000 people.
The local elite are circling their wagons, not on orders from Beijing but in
response to dissatisfaction from both above and below. While it may protect
them in the short run, it will leave Macau's leadership more isolated and
vulnerable in the long run, ill-equipped to face the city's problems.
No contest
The most obvious sign of stunted political growth is the upcoming uncontested
ascension of Fernando Chui Sai-on as Macau's new chief executive. When Edmund
Ho was chosen for the post in 1999, he faced token opposition from businessman
Stanley Au, which at least lent the small circle election a patina of choice.
This time, support from democratic factions has been blamed for undermining the
potential candidacy of chief prosecutor Ho Chio-meng, who chose not to run
despite an early boost from a favorable article in a Chinese Communist Party
publication.
Ten years after escaping colonialism, Macau can't even tolerate debate over who
300 of the city's great and good should choose as the new chief executive.
Through an incredible coincidence or a series of backroom deals, exactly 254
people registered for the 254 places parceled out to representatives of seven
functional constituencies (business, professional and civic groups),
eliminating the need for a vote. The rest of the electors were chosen behind
closed doors.
When I asked a cross-section of Macau professionals to comment on the chief
executive election or the performance of the incumbent Edmund Ho, the
overwhelming majority refused to speak on the record, sometimes offering
extraordinarily creative excuses or simply admitting, as one did, "I have too
much to lose."
Others agreed to speak on limited topics, declaring other subjects off-limits
because, as one well-known Macau figure explained, "I'd have to be negative."
Many people are afraid to express ideas. Uncontested elections amplify those
fears, signaling that debate and disagreement are unwelcome.
After Chui announced his candidacy in May, an Internet campaign raised money to
run a newspaper advertisement opposing a chief executive who, like Chui, comes
from one of Macau's most powerful families. The bank involved abruptly closed
the group's account. The ad eventually ran in a Hong Kong newspaper, after one
Macau publication supposedly told the group, "We wouldn't run it for 10 million
patacas [US$1.25 million]."
Inequality breeds discontent Macau as a Portuguese colony never developed a political culture, and civil
society has made little progress beyond the kai fong, traditional
Chinese neighborhood associations. Two seats in the Legislative Assembly are
held by members of the only declared pro-democracy party, which plans to split
in two to increase its chances of winning more seats. Only 12 of the 29
legislature's seats are directly elected, with 10 chosen by functional
constituencies representing business interests, and seven appointed by the
chief executive, ensuring vested interested are in control.
Grassroots opposition to Macau's government tends to be ad hoc and lightly
organized but discontent simmers close to the surface over the uneven benefits
of Macau's economic growth.
May Day 2007 drew unprecedented crowds into the streets, protesting over
imported labor. Panicked police fired warning shots close to the demonstrators,
wounding a bystander. The incident drew international attention, and, along
with the US$100 million corruption scandal involving former public works
secretary Ao Man Long that began unfolding in late 2006, undermined Macau's
position as Beijing's preferred special administrative region compared to
larger, usually more unruly Hong Kong.
In the absence of other drivers, the incident remains the dominant event on
Macau's political landscape, exerting influence across the spectrum.
For the past two years, the government's main objective has been to prevent a
repeat of the mass demonstrations. Ahead of May Day 2008, it declared a 5,000
patacas payment for all permanent residents and upped the handout to 6,000
patacas this year. (In both years, non-permanent residents received half of the
declared amount.) When the economic crisis began to bite late last year, the
government did all it could to ensure the ax fell on foreign workers rather
than locals. In some cases, professionals who'd lost their jobs and lived in
Macau for years were required to leave within 48 hours to guarantee they left
the local labor pool.
The government's focus on foreign workers is at best misguided in a city that,
certainly in May 2007, enjoyed virtual full employment and rapidly expanding
labor demand. Specifics are different now due to the global economic crisis and
mainland visa restrictions that limit visits, but the underlying truth remains
that Macau unemployment isn't due to imported labor but lack of suitable
skills, including English-language ability and professional training.
Lack of appropriate labor undoubtedly impacts economic development across
Macau, from small and medium-sized enterprises that can't find the help they
need (or can't compete with casino wages to get it) to hospitality services
that can't match what's available in other resort destinations. Those
situations touch on wider issues and far bigger problems facing Macau, and none
of them will be solved by indiscriminately distributing 6,000 patacas.
More money than sense
Macau's government literally has more money than it knows what to do with, and
the city's lack of political dialogue means leadership has no reliable
mechanism to consult the public to help craft policies. Cash giveaways are an
admission that the government has no real policies to address pressing issues.
The upcoming change of chief executive will put a leading figure from the
current, lost administration in charge, a man many in Macau see as less
competent and personable than the incumbent, with closer ties to the shocking
corruption that's helped undermine the administration's legitimacy.
Lack of political development occasionally suits Beijing. The central
government got anti-sedition provisions known as Article 23 added to the Basic
Law in Macau with little fuss; in Hong Kong, 500,000 people marched against
Article 23 and the government abandoned it. Passing Article 23 in Macau was
expected to provide impetus for its reintroduction in Hong Kong, but Macau's
uncontested elections and stifled dialogue are precisely what Hong Kong fears.
Overall, Beijing just wants Macau to run smoothly, a priority it shares with
investors, particularly those from overseas who aren't part of Macau's ruling
clans. Leisure expert Andy Nazarechuk, dean of the University of Nevada Las
Vegas Singapore campus, once told me, "I thought Las Vegas was the only place
where people would invest billions in a mega-resort." He didn't believe that
any other jurisdiction could offer security to investors, including rule of law
and public order, combined with business potential, to support that level of
investment.
But now, visible from Nazarechuk's window in Singapore, the two most expensive
casino resorts in the world are being built with a combined price tag
approaching US$11 billion, while Macau is still seeking more than $10 billion
to complete its transformation into the Las Vegas of Asia. Across the region,
from Seoul to Saigon to Siam Reap, casinos resorts are being built to compete
with Macau.
To remain the destination of choice in this rising international competition
for visitors and capital, Macau must lose the trappings of a banana republic
and become a modern, efficiently run city where all stakeholders work toward
shared goals. Uncontested elections and stunted civil society are not a winning
bet.
Macau
business special correspondent and former broadcast news producer Muhammad
Cohen told
America’s story to the world as a US diplomat and
is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about
television news, love, betrayal, financial crisis,
and cheap lingerie.
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