BOOK
REVIEW China's take-off
riddle China
Airborne by James Fallows Reviewed by Benjamin Shobert
Nuance
about China evades too many current authors who
seek to write something compelling, insightful and
useful about the country. The great temptation is
to force a world view on top of China, some sort
of systematic method of understanding the country,
rather than acknowledging the enormous
complexities and uncertainties that surround its
jarring brace of modernity.
This is
partially why so much of what is written about the
country tends to fall into one of two camps:
absolute conviction that its internal
contradictions will ultimately tear it apart, or
complete doe-eyed marvel at the Beijing Model and
its ability to coordinate government and
free-markets at a time when both have seemed to
be particularly feckless
agents in the West.
Another way of
understanding these two camps is to recognize the
tendency of those more pessimistic to have an
"either/or" view of the country, versus those with
a more elastic view of China to be able to embrace
a "both/and" frame of reference.
The
harsher "either/or" has grown in influence as the
economic and political malaise in the United Sates
has intensified, making it more difficult than
ever to have a coherent and balanced conversation
about where China is a worthwhile partner, but
also a strategic competitor. This is no surprise
given that the US' internal political conversation
is marked by the same need to push nuance aside
and starkly compartmentalize what has historically
been a rich and diverse group of policies and
opinions.
Thankfully, James Fallows' most
recent book, China Airborne, manages to
focus its readers on a holistic, humble and
balanced view of China. Fallows does this by
evaluating the country's development of a domestic
aviation sector. It is impossible to envision
China's success over the past 30 years absent a
safe and vibrant commercial aviation
infrastructure.
The many American and
European businessmen and women who first made
their way into the country were willing to
encounter all sorts of cultural peculiarities and
business oddities provided they could be confident
in their safety traveling into the country. This
confidence belies the chasm that existed between
the commercial aviation standards when China was
first opening to the West and when these
adventurous business-folk began to enter.
Writing about Kissinger's first trip into
China aboard a Boeing 707, Fallows notes that
China lacked the ability for Kissinger to safely
deplane the 707: "When the 707's doors opened,
they would be some twenty feet above the runway,
and at a different height from the Soviet-made
planes. Would the VIP passengers have to jump, or
climb, to reach the movable stairways the Beijing
authorities had on hand?" (p46)
One can
only imagine the sort of more substantial and
troubling issues related to aircraft maintenance
and air traffic control that existed then, which
have largely been resolved now, as part of China's
modernization.
Fallows also observes the
central role aviation has played in China's
economic development. Without a doubt, China's
manufacturing pre-eminence would have been
seriously limited without the advent of
cost-effective air freight, which has allowed the
country to make up the inconvenience of being so
far away from its export markets with the velocity
by which prototypes and short lead-time
manufactured goods can make their way out of the
country. The on-line Apple store's ability to ship
an iPad with your name laser-etched on the back
for you to receive a couple of days later speaks
to this truth.
As Fallows makes abundantly
clear, the commercial aviation sector does not
only provide us with a way of understanding where
China has come from, it also points us in the
direction of where the country intends to go.
Specifically, China's pursuit of a domestic
airline manufacturer that can compete against
Airbus and Boeing.
The Commercial Aircraft
Corporation of China (COMAC) and its ARJ21 and
C919 represent the first forays by Beijing to
develop a national champion in the aviation
sector. Given the country's successful pursuits in
clean technology and high-speed rail, many believe
it is a mistake to under-estimate China's ability
to ultimately field a meaningful competitor to
Airbus and Boeing. Fallows understands that
China's ability to achieve this is not simply a
matter of internalizing the necessary technology,
but also addressing the many commercial issues
that could prevent a vibrant aviation sector from
ever being accepted outside of China.
If
China is successful in doing this, it may well be
not only a function of China's domestic efforts,
but also due to miss-steps by the incumbents,
Boeing in particular. Writing about Boeing's
controversial development and manufacturing model
for the 787 Dreamliner, Fallows notes, "With the
787, Boeing outsourced not simply specific
components but much of the design and integration
of the aircraft, which had been its distinguishing
advantage." (p152)
While this observation
is specific to one particular critique of Boeing's
outsourcing strategy, it also goes to Fallows'
larger point about whether the current United
States view of China owes more to China's success
or American short-sightedness.
Writing
about what he calls "The Chinese Master Plan",
Fallows points out that "For China, the heavy
investment in roads, ports, power stations, train
lines, and so on has been, like many of its other
growth strategies, so successful that it has bred
a different kind of problem. The consequences of
more than a decade's worth of overinvestment are
as important in shaping China's choices, and its
outlook on new industries like aerospace, as the
consequences of long-term underinvestment are for
the United States." (p84)
This one
paragraph captures the nuance that evades so much
contemporary discussion about China: its successes
are acknowledged, the downside risks presented,
but always with an eye towards what America should
take away from watching China's relentless and
single-minded push forwards.
In this way,
Fallows manages graciously but directly to present
an alternative to those who would have Americans
understand China through the "either/or" paradigm.
Towards the end of his book, he writes "The
contradictory signals from China - the
magnificence of the country's hosting of the 2008
Olympics; the crackdown on all dissidence during
the Olympics - make us eager for the choice to
emerge, clearly and definitively, to end the
suspense that has been building for forty years,
since Richard Nixon's 1972 visit, so we can know
whether to regard China as friend or foe." (p190)
He never backs away from the internal
tensions that critics dwell on; but he also
refuses to throw his hands up in despair over the
country's struggle to rise above these. The
avoidance of certainty about where China is going
to end up may frustrate some readers of China
Airborne, but it also reflects the humility of
someone who appreciates how the country's many
internal contradictions have at times been the
secrets of its success.
Where critics
propose that China must be either a competitor or
a partner, Fallows suggests it can be both
America's competitor and partner. He manages to
walk this fine line without glossing over the many
strategic or ideological differences that exist
between American ideals and how China manages
itself.
Similarly, China Airborne
intentionally works to avoid the fallacy that
either China's economy and social construct must
implode (a line of thinking likely to become more
popular as their domestic economy weakens), or
they will come to dominate the globe economically
and militarily (the latter being the proposition
of those who believe the 21st century will
inevitably be China's).
Rather, Fallows
acknowledges that China's economy could both face
major short-term structural problems but also
persevere and evolve a uniquely Chinese solution
to these problems, one many in the West would
neither anticipate nor likely be advocates for.
Readers are likely to finish China
Airborne with one question left un-answered:
will China's embrace of globalization be good or
bad for the world? Not necessarily because of its
own actions, but more because of how the world
reacts to China's success.
Fallows does a
very good job presenting anecdotally and
qualitatively the ways in which China's entry into
the global economy has been good for it and how it
has benefited American consumers and businesses
thus far.
Yet it is difficult to put his
book down and not wonder if China's emergence
might prove destabilizing less because of any
direct action it takes, or any philosophical
quandary Beijing's success poses for Western
governments, but rather because these same
governments acted with partisanship and passivity
during a moment in time when China's momentum
should have provoked action and investment.
This unanswered question may ultimately
prove to be the most important one students of
US-China relations would do well to pursue.
China Airborne by James Fallows.
Pantheon (May 15, 2012). ISBN-10: 0375422110.
Price US$25.95, 288 pages.
Benjamin
A Shobert is the Managing Director of Rubicon
Strategy Group, a consulting firm specialized in
strategy analysis for companies looking to enter
emerging economies. He is the author of the
upcoming book Blame China and can be
followed at www.CrossTheRubiconBlog.com.
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